Zinc prices fell slightly in February

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the zinc market fell in February, and the zinc price fluctuated slightly. As of February 28, the price of zinc was 25010 yuan / ton, down 1.36% from 25354 yuan / ton on February 1 at the beginning of the month. In February, zinc ingot inventory in zinc city increased and zinc price fluctuated and fell.

Zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai futures market increased sharply

Time Futures inventory . Increase or decrease

February 7 fifty-six thousand six hundred and eighteen . 0

February 8th . fifty-eight thousand and seventy-seven one thousand four hundred and fifty-nine

February 9th . sixty-four thousand and eighty-one . six thousand and four

February 10 sixty-seven thousand three hundred and forty-seven three thousand two hundred and sixty-six

February 11 seventy-four thousand six hundred and fifteen . seven thousand two hundred and sixty-eight

February 14 eighty-nine thousand two hundred and sixty point one four six four five

February 15 ninety-six thousand eight hundred and forty-seven . seven thousand five hundred and eighty-seven

February 16th . one hundred and three thousand eight hundred and ninety-six seven thousand and forty-nine

February 17th . one hundred and four thousand one hundred and twenty-one . two hundred and twenty-five

February 18th . one hundred and four thousand nine hundred and fifty-seven eight hundred and thirty-six

February 21 one hundred and four thousand eight hundred and eighty-three .- seventy-four

February 22nd . one hundred and five thousand three hundred and ninety-seven five hundred and fourteen

February 23rd . one hundred and six thousand and forty-nine six hundred and fifty-two

February 24th . one hundred and eight thousand and seventy-seven two thousand and twenty-eight

February 25th . one hundred and eight thousand five hundred and fifty-three four hundred and seventy-six

February 28th . one hundred and six thousand nine hundred and forty-six .- one thousand six hundred and seven

According to the zinc ingot inventory data sheet of Shanghai futures market, as of February 28, the zinc ingot futures inventory of Shanghai futures market was 106946 tons, the zinc ingot inventory increased by more than 50000 tons in February, the zinc ingot inventory decreased slightly on February 28, the inventory of Shanghai futures market increased greatly, the supply of zinc market was sufficient, the upward support of zinc price was weakened, and the downward pressure of zinc price increased.

Russia Ukraine conflict affects European oil and gas supply

Across Eurasia, Russia is extremely rich in oil and gas resources, and its oil and gas production ranks third and second in the world respectively. And because of its relatively limited consumption, it exports a large number to Europe and Asia. It is an important exporter of global oil and gas resources. The worsening conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States on Russia will affect the energy supply in Europe and even the world. The European natural gas market will also be hit hard. Considering that Russia’s natural gas exports to Europe (pipeline gas + LNG) account for nearly 1 / 3 of its total demand, if the natural gas supply from Russia is seriously blocked, the already high European gas price will soar again. The price of natural gas rises, the cost of zinc smelting rises, the output of zinc ingots in Europe is expected to decrease, and the supply of zinc in the future is expected to decrease.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that: in February, the inventory of zinc ingots in Shanghai futures market increased greatly, the supply of zinc market increased, and the price of zinc fluctuated and fell. With the intensification of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai futures market has declined, the output of zinc ingots in Europe is expected to decrease, the supply of zinc in the future market is expected to decrease, and the zinc price is expected to rise slightly.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business society, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products of major domestic refiners was 4251.25 yuan / ton on the 28th and 4078.75 yuan / ton on the 14th, an increase of 4.23%.

On February 27, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 327.74, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 389.97% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the overall rise of refined petroleum coke in late February. Most of the early-stage contracts of refineries have been executed in the latter ten days, the price of petroleum coke is high, the downstream receiving is cautious, the local refining inventory has increased, and the price of petroleum coke fluctuates; Crude oil prices rose sharply at the end of the month, refinery inventories were low, downstream demand was good, transactions were positive, and prices rose.

Upstream: the rise of international crude oil in February was mainly due to the escalating geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine, which led to the continuous rise of oil prices. From the fundamentals of supply and demand, the oil market is also in a tight balance. In recent months, the increase in production of the organization of petroleum exporting countries and its allies (OPEC +) has not reached the target. Some countries have difficulties in increasing production, which has led to the tension of supply. In addition, in the post epidemic era, The continuous recovery of demand and the steady increase of fuel demand also provide preconditions for the rise of oil prices.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke rose as a whole in late February; Metal silicon market rose; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and rose. As of February 27, the price was 22830.00 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

The petroleum coke analyst of business agency predicts that: the international crude oil rises sharply, and the local petroleum coke price is supported by the cost. With the end of the Winter Olympic Games, carbon enterprises start work one after another, and the demand for petroleum coke is good, driving the rise of coke price. At present, the inventory of the refinery is low and the downstream demand is good. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke may continue to rise slightly in the near future.

The price of aluminum fluoride fell sharply in February

According to the data of business news agency, the price of aluminum fluoride fell sharply in February. As of February 25, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 11575 yuan / ton, down 13.46% from 13375 yuan / ton on February 1 at the beginning of the month; Aluminum fluoride market fell sharply in February.

Weak decline in raw material prices

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of fluorite was temporarily stable in February, and the price of hydrofluoric acid fell. The prices of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid were adjusted weakly, the cost of aluminum fluoride decreased, and the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride remained.

The price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and rose

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of electrolytic aluminum rose sharply in February, up 5.16%. Aluminum prices rose, electrolytic aluminum manufacturers started steadily, the demand for aluminum fluoride was temporarily stable, the downstream market rose, and the rising power of aluminum fluoride remained.

Market overview and forecast

The aluminum fluoride industry analyst of business society believes that in February, the price of hydrofluoric acid fell weakly, the price of fluorite remained weakly stable, the cost of aluminum fluoride decreased weakly, the demand for aluminum fluoride remained temporarily stable, the construction of aluminum fluoride manufacturers resumed, and the supply of aluminum fluoride increased. In the future, the cost is weak, the supply is increased, the demand is low, the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride is increased, and the upward momentum still exists. In the future, the price of aluminum fluoride is weak and falls.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, as of February 24, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 17500 yuan / ton, an increase of 166 yuan / ton compared with 17333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, an increase of 0.96% during the week and an increase of 19.86 /% compared with the same period last year

According to the bulk data monitoring of business agency, as of February 24, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 27500 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price of 27500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with an increase of 0% during the week and 39.12% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the refrigerant R22 market rose steadily, slightly higher than last week, and the enterprise quotation increased by 500 yuan / ton. Recently, the raw material hydrofluoric acid and chloroform are stable, the cost support is OK, but the export and domestic sales are still poor, and the downstream demand support is general, but the manufacturer supports the price and supports the increase of R22 price. At present, the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is mostly 11340 yuan / ton, the price of chloroform is about 5100 yuan / ton, and the market quotation of R22 is mostly in the range of 17000-18000 yuan / ton, The quotation in Shandong is about 17500 yuan / ton, that in Zhejiang is about 17000-17500 yuan / ton, that in Hunan is about 17500-18000 yuan / ton, and that in Guangzhou is about 18000 yuan / ton. The prices in various places have increased slightly.

The refrigerant R134a market has been stable for the time being this week, most enterprises have not made adjustments, and a few enterprises continue to increase by 1000-1500 yuan / ton. Recently, the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid has been temporarily stable, while the price of trichloroethylene is high and the cost support is strong. However, due to the drag of demand, the market transaction atmosphere is poor, the enterprise sales are under pressure, the warehouse is slightly affected, and the enterprise mainly waits and sees the market. According to the data of business agency, the market quotation of R134a is in the range of 25000-30000 yuan / ton, that of Zhejiang is about 25500-26000 yuan / ton, that of Hunan is about 25500-26000 yuan / ton, that of Jiangsu is about 27000-30000 yuan / ton, and that of Guangzhou is about 27000 yuan / ton. The prices in various places are generally stable.

In terms of raw materials, on February 23, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market was temporarily stable, the operation of on-site devices was stable, the supply of goods was normal, the market price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid was temporarily stable, and the recent stable price of fluorite had a certain impact on the loss of support for the hydrofluoric acid market. In addition, the operating rate of downstream refrigerant industry was still at a low level, and the actual demand was at a low level, With regard to the Limited procurement of hydrofluoric acid and the recent upward trend of refrigerant market, it is expected that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may stabilize temporarily.

3、 Future forecast

Refrigerant analysts of business society believe that at present, the cost is strong, and the prices of refrigerants R22 and R134a are rising steadily, but the demand follow-up is insufficient and the enterprise sales pressure is large. Therefore, the increase range is more cautious, and the prices of R22 and R134a are rising steadily in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of February 18, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 6833 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on February 13, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 8633 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 1800 yuan / ton, a decrease of 20.85%.

From the business data monitoring chart, it can be seen that in February, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market showed a sharp downward trend. In early February, during the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic market of dimethyl carbonate was calm, and there was no significant change in the venue. After the holiday, in the first week (9th day) after the start of construction, the domestic market of dimethyl carbonate went down when it was cold, and the downstream demand opened slowly after the holiday. Under the cold demand, the factory continuously reduced the ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate, with a cumulative reduction range of about 1000-1500 yuan / ton in the first week. As of February 15, the ex factory price of domestic dimethyl carbonate was around 7500-8500 yuan / ton.

In late February, domestic dimethyl carbonate plants started one after another, and the plants in Shandong and Zhejiang operated smoothly. The on-site supply of dimethyl carbonate increased again. However, the downstream demand side was still calm, the demand was more rigid, and the purchase was mainly needed. With the gradual imbalance between supply and demand, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market continued to decline deeply. On the 18th, The ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate in East China fell to around 6500-7300 yuan / ton. After a few days of temporary stable consolidation and operation of the market, the domestic dimethyl carbonate Market loosened and fell again on the 22nd. As of the 22nd, the ex factory price of domestic dimethyl carbonate was around 6500-7000 yuan / ton, and the average price was 6566 yuan / ton. The decline in February has exceeded 33%.

For the upstream propylene oxide Market, as of February 21, the overall market price of propylene oxide in Shandong was mainly rising. On February 21, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 11800-11900 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the reference average ex factory price of propylene oxide in Shandong was 11966.67 yuan / ton on the 21st, an increase of 5.9% compared with February 1 (11300 yuan / ton).

Future trend analysis

At present, after the dimethyl carbonate market fell to the low point, the market trading atmosphere has improved, and the volume of single transaction is still limited. Dimethyl carbonate analysts of business society believe that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market is mainly adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and more attention needs to be paid to the basic changes in supply and demand.

This week (2.11-2.18), the market of CIS polybutadiene rubber rose slightly. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of February 18, the domestic CIS polybutadiene rubber price was 13900 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.14% compared with 13880 yuan / ton on Friday.

This week (2.11-2.18), the ex factory price of CIS polybutadiene rubber of domestic enterprises remained stable. According to the monitoring of business society, as of February 18, the ex warehouse price of Daqing Shunding of Sinopec North China sales company was 13700 yuan / ton. After the downstream Festival, the market offer of traders was slightly adjusted, and the overall market fluctuated slightly this week.

The start of polybutadiene rubber remained stable this week.

The start-up of domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant has not changed much this week, and the supply side is basically stable.

Butadiene prices rose sharply this week and the cost side rose. According to the monitoring of business society, as of February 18, the price of butadiene was 7890 yuan / ton, up 10.80% from 7121 yuan / ton last Friday.

The natural rubber market fell slightly this week. According to the monitoring of business society, as of February 18, the price of natural rubber was 13480 yuan / ton, down 1.61% from 13700 yuan / ton last Friday. The effect on CIS polybutadiene rubber is empty.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that the price of raw materials rebounded sharply, supported by the cost side, and it is expected that the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber will rise steadily and slightly in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price trend of TDI in East China continued to rise this week. As of February 18, the average market price in East China was 19550 yuan / ton. Compared with the price of 19575 yuan / ton at the end of last week, it decreased by 0.13% during the week and increased by 9.07% month on month.

During the week, the TDI market was reorganized and put into operation. There was little change in the start-up of domestic TDI plants. Gansu Yinguang and Yantai Juli devices had not been restarted. The spot market continued to be tight. The supply of overseas TDI market was tight, the price was high, and the on-site cargo holders had a strong mentality of supporting the market. In the later stage, the downstream response was lower than expected, the market trading continued to be light, and the quotation of dealers decreased slightly. As of the 18th, the quotation range of domestic goods in the distribution market in East China is about 19000-19300 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of Shanghai goods is 19500-19700 yuan / ton, mainly based on actual order negotiation. The dealer’s quotation followed the market news and continued to rise during the week.

As of February 18, the operation of domestic TDI plants is as follows:

The upstream toluene market fluctuated, and the price rose first and then fell during the week. The overall price rose slightly. As of February 18, the domestic average price of toluene was about 6996 yuan / ton, up 0.38% from the price at the end of last week. In the first half of the week, driven by the wide rise of crude oil, the toluene market rose, but the downstream demand was limited and the rise of toluene was blocked. In the second half of the week, the guidance of raw oil on toluene weakened and the price of toluene decreased.

According to the analysis of TDI data division of business society, at present, the downstream demand follow-up is limited, and the domestic TDI market is dominated by high-level consolidation, while the foreign demand is strongly supported, and the TDI price driven by the export market will not be significantly reduced. Under the supply and demand game, it is expected that the future TDI market will be in a stalemate and consolidation, and the short-term price may be slightly reduced.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of isooctanol mainstream in Shandong fell from 13900.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 13000.00 yuan / ton this weekend, down 6.47%. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 12.72% year-on-year. On the whole, Shandong isooctanol market fell slightly this week and showed an upward trend over the weekend. On February 17, the isooctanol commodity index was 95.59, up 1.47 points from yesterday, down 30.48% from the highest point 137.50 in the cycle (2021-08-08), and up 171.95% from the lowest point 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and weakening downstream demand

From the perspective of manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory quotation of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong fell this week: Jianlan chemical’s quotation of isooctanol this weekend was about 12900 yuan / ton, which was 1100 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend, dominated by contracts; The quotation of lihuayi isooctanol this weekend is 12900 yuan / ton, which is 800 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng offered 13200 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, down 800 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fell slightly this week. The quotation fell from 8270.60 yuan / ton last weekend to 8025.67 yuan / ton this weekend, down 2.96%, up 8.86% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the ex factory price of DOP fell slightly this week. DOP price fell from 12950.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 12525.00 yuan / ton this weekend, down 3.28%, up 18.72% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Downstream DOP prices fell slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for isooctanol procurement weakened.

Weak demand and bearish outlook

In late February, the market trend of Shandong isooctanol may fluctuate slightly, mainly falling. The upstream propylene fell slightly over the weekend, the cost support weakened, the downstream DOP market fell slightly, and the downstream demand was general. According to isooctanol analysts of business society, in late February, Shandong isooctanol market may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly.

In the first week after the festival (2.7-11), the domestic liquid ammonia Market warmed up, the prices in Shandong and Hebei rose at the beginning of the week, and the market gradually stabilized from the middle of the week to the weekend. Prices rose in Shanxi, Anhui, Jiangsu, Henan and Northwest China. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of February 11, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong was 1.37%. At present, the mainstream quotation range of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 4200-4400 yuan / ton.

On the supply side, the northern market mainly rose after the festival, which was mainly affected by the recovery of transportation after the festival and the dilution of the impact of the epidemic. During the Winter Olympics, the supply of Shandong, Hebei and other places tightened, affecting some output. At the same time, it also led to the recovery of prices in surrounding Anhui, Jiangsu and other regions. In addition, the shutdown of Fujian Wanhua plant also caused local supply tension and helped the ammonia price rise. The center of gravity of ammonia price in Northwest China has also moved upward. Qinghai Yuntianhua gas is limited, and the supply has been tightened; Superimposed on the recovery of traffic after snow in Ningxia, supporting the rise of ammonia price.

On the cost side, at present, the price of liquid ammonia is still supported by the cost side. The coal rebounded sharply before the festival. Although the market decreased after the festival, it is still running at a high level.

From the demand side, urea and compound fertilizer are better as a whole. According to the monitoring of business society, urea rose by 2.12% in the week after the festival. After the festival, the downstream inquiry increased, the inventory pressure of urea manufacturers was not large, and the price rose according to the trend. At present, the price is 2700 yuan / ton. The demand for agriculture is increasing, and the demand for industry is mainly rigid. With the advent of the fertilizer peak season in North China, dealers’ enthusiasm for taking goods has increased, and compound fertilizer plants have replenished goods one after another. The market price of melamine was adjusted at a low level, the inventory of enterprises was under pressure, and the focus of market negotiation was weakened. The downstream plate factory just needs to purchase. From the perspective of supply: affected by the Winter Olympics, the daily output of urea is about 150000 tons, a slight decrease. On the whole, the cost of urea is generally supported, the downstream demand is good, the supply of urea is tight, and the future urea mainly rises slightly.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same. At present, there are signs of further widening the price difference between urea and liquid ammonia, indicating that the market of liquid ammonia is still weaker than that of urea.

From the above figure, the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram shows that the current liquid ammonia industry chain continues to improve, and the price of natural gas upstream of the gas head is strong. However, the performance of coal head is weak, and the downstream shows a certain rigidity, with most rising products, especially melamine and ammonium chloride.

Future forecast: the business society believes that in the short term, the supply and demand of liquid ammonia is stable and partially tight. Many enterprises in Anhui, Shanxi, Jiangsu and other places have maintenance plans next week, and the supply is still good. The downstream urea market is still rising, which will further support the ammonia price. It is expected that liquid ammonia will still have some upward space in the near future.

Trade name: melamine

Latest price (February 16): 14826.67 yuan / ton

The market price of melamine fell on February 16, down 2.20% compared with the previous trading day and up 53.80% compared with the price on January 16. At present, the price of upstream urea is falling, the cost support is weakened, the enterprises mainly execute the early orders, the performance of domestic demand is insufficient, the sales pressure of enterprises is increasing, and the price is under pressure.

It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may be dominated by weak operation.