According to the monitoring sample data of business agency, as of August 16, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7766.67 yuan / ton, up 7.37% compared with the price on last Tuesday (August 9), down 2.51% compared with the price on July 16, and down 24.60% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

In the recent period (8.9-8.16), the melamine market was stable first and then rose. Recently, the market price of raw material urea fluctuated slightly, with limited impact on the cost side. On the supply side, some enterprises in some regions stopped or reduced production, the market supply was reduced, the supply side supported the price of melamine to rise, and the downstream just needed purchase was the main one. The demand side was flat.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market rose on August 15. The prices of upstream anthracite and natural gas were adjusted at a low level, and the cost was generally supported. In terms of demand, agricultural demand has basically ended and industrial demand has increased. The start-up of the rubber plate factory is low, and the just need to purchase is the main one. The compound fertilizer factory follows up on the bargain hunting. The price of melamine was adjusted at a low level, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was general. In terms of supply, some manufacturers have started maintenance, and the daily output of urea is about 150000 tons.

According to the melamine analysts of business agency, the current cost support is general, and the operating rate of the melamine market is declining, which supports the strong operation of the market. However, the downstream demand performance is flat, and the market mentality is still cautious. It is expected that the melamine market will be strong in the short term, so we need to pay more attention to the market information and guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, toluene rebounded slightly after falling this week. On August 5, the price was 7560 yuan / ton, and on Friday (August 12), the price was 7460 yuan / ton, down 1.32% from last week; Up 29.24% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In the early stage, due to the weakness of crude oil and the poor market demand, the domestic toluene market mentality was empty, and the price was weak and fell. In the second half of the week, with the improvement of the terminal gasoline market and the widening of the price difference between toluene and xylene, the enthusiasm for purchasing toluene in the downstream increased. Supported by the demand, toluene rebounded slightly.

On the external market, toluene in Asia fell this week. On Thursday (August 11), the price of imported toluene from South Korea was US $890 / T, a year-on-year decrease of US $52 / T, a decrease of 5.52%.

In terms of crude oil, US gasoline inventory dropped sharply this week, and gasoline demand rebounded significantly; In addition, the International Energy Agency raised its forecast of oil demand growth this year, and the pressure of demand decline was relieved. The oil price fluctuated and rose during the week. As of August 12, Brent price in this week increased by 3.23 USD / barrel or 3.4% compared with last week; WTI rose by US $3.08/barrel or 3.46%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China rose this week. On August 5, the price was 15800 yuan / ton, and on August 12, the price was 16525 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.59% over last week and 14.56% over the same period last year.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price was stable this week. On August 5, the price was 9000 yuan / ton, and on Friday (August 12), the price was 9000 yuan / ton. Compared with last week, the price was the same, an increase of 23.29% over the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline in Shandong Province fluctuated upward this week. On August 5, the price was 8555 yuan / ton, and on August 12, the price was 8656 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.18% over last week and 14.28% over the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the oil market is stuck. The international oil price is still swaying in the expectation that the economic recession risk will affect demand and supply tension, and the trend is full of uncertainty. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic situation, etc. on crude oil prices.

Cost side: the crude oil trend is still uncertain, and the cost side is unstable; Demand side: the demand for gasoline blending increases, but the downstream demand of chemical industry continues to be weak. In general, toluene may fluctuate in a narrow range. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics and downstream demand on prices.

The price of acetic anhydride fell this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of acetic anhydride fell this week. As of August 12, the price of acetic anhydride was 6200 yuan / ton, down 0.40% from 6225 yuan / ton on August 7 last weekend. This week, the quotation of acetic anhydride enterprises fell below 6000 yuan / ton, the cost fell and the demand was weak. This week, the market of acetic anhydride fell weakly.

This week, the price of raw material acetic acid fluctuated and fell

It can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid in the business community that the price of acetic acid fell this week. As of August 12, the price of acetic acid was 3362.50 yuan / ton, down 3.24% from the price of 3475 yuan / ton on August 7 last weekend; The demand is insufficient, the price of acetic acid drops, the cost of acetic anhydride drops, and the pressure of acetic anhydride drop increases.

This week, methanol prices rose first and then fell

It can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of the business club that the methanol price fluctuated and fell this week. As of August 12, the methanol price was 2460 yuan / ton, down 0.54% from 2473.33 yuan / ton on August 7 last weekend; Compared with the methanol price of 2546.67 yuan / ton on August 8 at the beginning of the week, it dropped by 3.40%. The energy crisis still exists, the price of methanol fluctuates and falls, the cost of raw materials of acetic anhydride decreases, the driving force of acetic anhydride rises is weakened, and the downward pressure still exists.

Future outlook

According to the acetic anhydride data analysts of business club, raw material methanol fell in shock this week, the price of acetic acid fell, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the quotation of acetic anhydride enterprises fell below 6000 yuan / ton. In general, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased and the demand was weak, and the price of acetic anhydride fell. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will drop slightly in the future.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of August 11, 2022, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 8183 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on August 7 (the reference average price of n-propanol was 8266 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 83 yuan / ton, down 1%. Compared with the price on August 1 (the reference average price of n-propanol was 8216 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 33 yuan / ton, down 0.41%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that this week (8.7-8.11), the domestic n-propanol market as a whole showed a weak trend. At the beginning of this week, the domestic n-propanol market was mainly operated stably, and the market was not changed much. On the 10th and 11th of the weekend, the n-propanol market in Shandong continued to move downward. The major manufacturers in Shandong reduced the ex factory price of n-propanol by about 100-200 yuan / ton. Some n-propanol suppliers followed the footsteps of the major manufacturers and also adjusted the delivery price of n-propanol downward by about 100-200 yuan / ton. As of August 11, the ex factory price of n-propanol in Shandong Province in China was around 7500-7650 yuan / ton. Dealers around the world still have reservations about the price. It is difficult to monitor the price, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. Each region also has differences. It is mainly based on actual single negotiation, and we will wait and see the price change of raw materials and shipment situation in the future.

Forecast of n-propanol future market trend

At present, the downstream demand of n-propanol is relatively stable, the transmission of supply and demand is normal, and the news on the market is relatively calm. The analysts of n-propanol of business club believe that in the short term, the adjustment and operation of the domestic n-propanol market will be the main one, and more attention should be paid to the specific changes in the supply and demand side.

According to the monitoring sample data of the business agency, as of August 7, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7233.33 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of last Monday (August 1), down 17.80% compared with that of July 7, and 29.32% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

The recent (8.1-8.7) melamine market is mainly stable. Recently, the market price of raw material urea has risen slightly, the cost side is generally supported, the supply side melamine market operating rate has dropped to a low level, which has a certain support for the market, the demand side has not improved significantly, the terminal operation is sluggish, the follow-up and digestion ability of melamine is slow, and the purchase is mainly based on demand.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market fell on August 5. The prices of upstream anthracite and natural gas were adjusted at a low level, and the cost support was general. From the demand side, the agricultural demand is general, and the industrial demand is increased. In some areas, agricultural topdressing has gradually ended, and agricultural demand has weakened. The compound fertilizer is ready to produce autumn fertilizer, and the demand for urea is increased. The start-up of the rubber plate factory is low, and it mainly needs to purchase. The melamine price is low, and the enthusiasm for urea purchase is general. In terms of supply, some manufacturers have started maintenance, and the daily output of urea is about 140000 tons.

The melamine analyst of Business Association believes that the current price of raw material urea is falling, the cost support is weakened, the market operating rate is low, but the demand side is still general. It is expected that the melamine market will be in a stalemate in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market information and guidance

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China increased slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China increased from 3850.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 3933.33 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 2.16%, a year-on-year decrease of 23.38%. On August 7, the calcium carbide commodity index was 103.06, which was the same as yesterday, down 51.44% from the highest point 212.23 (October 26, 2021) in the cycle, and up 85.73% from the lowest point 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream cost support is weakened, and the demand of downstream manufacturers is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China increased slightly this week.

The market price of the upstream orchid charcoal is temporarily stable. The downstream PVC market price fell slightly. This week, the PVC market price dropped from 6775.11 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 6668.57 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 1.58%, a year-on-year decrease of 26.82%. The PVC market price dropped slightly, the enthusiasm of downstream customers for calcium carbide procurement weakened, and the downstream PVC market had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

The downstream market fell slightly, and the calcium carbide market may fall in a narrow range

In the middle and early ten days of August, the market of calcium carbide mainly fell in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue carbon is weak, the cost support of calcium carbide is weakened, the downstream PVC market is slightly decreased, the downstream demand is weakened, and the power of calcium carbide is insufficient. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fall in a narrow range in the middle and early August.

The domestic methanol market mainly fluctuates in a narrow range. No matter in terms of production enterprises or import source prices at ports, the rise and fall are not large. Although the coal price is high, which seems to drive the methanol market to rise, the demand is low, which restricts the development of the whole industrial chain.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, from August 1 to August 8, the average price of domestic methanol market dropped from 2555 yuan / ton to 2546 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 0.33% in the cycle, a month on month increase of 3.24% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.00%.

As of the closing of August 8, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fluctuated narrowly. The opening price of ma2209 contract was 2472 yuan / ton, the highest price was 2568 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 2463 yuan / ton, and the closing price was 2547 yuan / ton, an increase of 75 yuan / ton compared with the closing of the previous trading day. As of the closing, the position of ma2209 contract was 812100 lots, a decrease of 44900 lots compared with the previous trading day.

As of August 8, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions is as follows:

Region, price

Qinghai region. No quotation at present

Shanxi Province, 2330 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Liaoning region, 2650 yuan / ton to cash exchange

Fujian area, 2530-2560 yuan / ton, cash exchange

Two lakes region, 2500-2510 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

In Anhui Province, some mainstream enterprises negotiated about 2510-2580 yuan / ton

Henan Province. Ex factory reference: 2600 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

The price of natural gas, the upstream product of methanol, is stable, while the price of coal is falling in a narrow range, and the support of methanol cost is weak; The price of the downstream product East China glacial acetic acid dropped the most; Among the related products, the price of urea in Shandong dropped the most.

In terms of external market, as of the closing on August 4, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was USD 357-359 / T. The closing price of US Gulf methanol market is 117.75-118.25 cents / gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 382.75-383.25 euros / ton, – 2 euros / ton.

Region, country, closing price, up and down

Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, USD 357-359 / T, USD 0 / T

Europe, America, Gulf of America, 117.75-118.25 cents / gallon, 0 cents / gallon

Europe, FOB Rotterdam, 382.75-383.25 euros / ton, – 2 euros / ton

Crude oil is weak, supply is expected to increase, and demand changes are limited. The cost is supported or weakened, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. The methanol analysts of the business association predicted that the domestic methanol market in the short term would be dominated by sluggish consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda is in a weak position. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was about 1090 yuan / ton. At the end of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 1080 yuan / ton, with a price decrease of 0.92% and a price increase of 66.8% over the same period last year. On August 5, the caustic soda commodity index was 155.40, which was the same as yesterday, down 41.46% from the highest point 265.47 in the cycle (October 27, 2021), and up 138.67% from the lowest point 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the survey data of business association, the domestic caustic soda price is weak this week. At present, the average market price in Shandong is about 1030-1100 yuan / ton. The mainstream factory price of 32% liquid alkali in Hebei is about 1090-1250 yuan / ton. At present, the overall market atmosphere is weak, and the downstream enterprises mainly take a wait-and-see attitude. The enterprise’s shipment is general, the on-site wait-and-see mood is heavy, and the downstream receiving capacity is limited. The overall trading is weak.

According to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 30th week (July 25-july 29) of 2022, there were 2 kinds of commodities rising, 2 kinds of commodities falling, and 1 kind of commodities falling to 0 in the price rise and fall list of chlor alkali industry. The main commodities rising were PVC (5.21%) and calcium carbide (0.87%); The main commodities falling were light soda (- 1.40%) and caustic soda (- 0.18%). This week’s average increase or decrease was 0.9%.

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda is in a weak position, some enterprises are in a negative position, and the wait-and-see attitude of the downstream alumina is obvious. Most of the alumina is mainly purchased on demand, with limited overall demand and dominated by negative factors. It is expected that the subsequent weak market of caustic soda will be mainly operated, and the specific market demand of the downstream market will be seen.

On July 27, the crude benzene commodity index was 119.12, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.65% from 131.84, the highest point in the cycle (January 28, 2013), and up 290.05% from 30.54, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

In July 2022, the crude benzene market fluctuated downward. The domestic ex factory price of crude benzene was 7805 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 7487 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decrease of 4.07%.

Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, adjusted price, adjusted amount

July 6, 9300, -300

July 14, 9150, -150

The ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene was reduced twice in July 2022, with a total reduction of 450 yuan / ton. As of the press release, the implementation of Sinopec pure benzene was 9150 yuan / ton.

The crude oil market fell after the overall shock this month. As of the 27th, the international oil price rebounded overnight, WTI rose by more than 2%, and SC crude oil rose in the inner market. The main contract of SC crude oil rose by 4.05% to close at 678.5 yuan. Oil prices are still in a long and short tug of war, and the market is still worried about the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate hike, leading to a standoff at the $100 level; However, oil prices were supported by supply tightening concerns and the weakening US dollar. In the future, the crude oil analyst of business news agency believes that in the short term, it is difficult to alleviate the supply shortage pattern. Although the Libyan supply may rise, the supply elasticity of opec+ as a whole is still relatively limited. In the later stage, it is difficult to continue to improve production capacity. Driven by the supply shortage, the oil price may still have the upper action force in the near future. However, in the medium term, due to the weak demand caused by the global central bank’s interest rate hike, there are still many obstacles to the rise of oil prices.

This month, the crude oil market fluctuated widely, and the overall trend was mainly downward. It drove the market price of pure benzene to decline in the first half of the month, and the price fell again after a slight rebound in the second half of the month. In the first half of the month, affected by the broad decline of crude oil, pure benzene in the external market followed the weakness, driving the focus of negotiation in the domestic market down. Due to the general transaction in Shandong, the price difference between Shandong and other regions widened, and the overall decline in the week was limited. Near the end of the month, the shipment of pure benzene in East China was tight, and the inventory of pure benzene in the port was low as a whole, with the inventory falling by 20000 tons in the week. The port has good enthusiasm for picking up goods, and the superposition of downstream purchase demand at the end of the month is acceptable. Pure benzene rebounded slightly after falling at the end of the month. However, the market expects the supply of pure benzene to increase in August, and poor negotiations on pure benzene in the far month limit the increase.

In terms of supply: after the four rounds of raising and lowering of coke prices, the current coking enterprises have suffered serious losses, and the coking enterprises have further increased their efforts to limit production, with most enterprises limiting production by 30-50%. With the strengthening of production restriction, the current overall supply of coke is tightening, and the output of related by-products fell significantly this month.

Crude benzene was less affected by the industrial chain than other products in the chain this month, and the fluctuation was not very large. The overall performance was high consolidation. The main reason is that the tight supply has boosted the bidding price, the coking enterprises have a strong price support mentality, the crude benzene inventory in the plant has remained low, and it is difficult to improve the supply in the short term in the future. With this factor, it is expected that the crude benzene price will remain high in the future.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol continued to fall this month, and the average price of domestic mainstream market price of neopentyl glycol fell from 12833.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 11066.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 13.77%. On July 28, the neopentyl glycol commodity index was 53.33, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a new low in the cycle, down 48.53% from the peak of 103.61 on September 22, 2021. (Note: the period refers to 2021-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream neopentyl glycol manufacturers fell slightly this month

From the perspective of the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price has experienced twists and turns this month, with a volatile decline. The price of isobutyraldehyde fell from 8466.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 7266.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 14.17%. The ex factory price of formaldehyde in China fell slightly this month. The price of formaldehyde fell from 1270.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 1206.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 4.99%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell sharply, which had a negative impact on the price of neopentyl glycol due to the impact of supply and demand.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In the middle and early August, the overall trend of neopentyl glycol market may rise slightly. At the end of the month, the upstream isobutyraldehyde market has an upward trend, the cost support has improved, the downstream coating market is general, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general. The neopentyl glycol analyst of business agency believes that the short-term neopentyl glycol market may rise slightly due to the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.