According to the data monitored by the business agency, the PP market has turned from weak to strong last month, the drawing brand has been shaken and warmed up, and the fiber products have also warmed up to varying degrees. As of February 1, the mainstream price of T30S (wire drawing) offered by domestic producers and traders was about 7966.67 yuan/ton, up and down by+1.38% compared with the average price at the beginning of January.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: In the upstream, the propylene market rose steadily in January. From the beginning of the month, the propylene market gradually entered the stage of preparation before the festival. There was a wave of procurement peaks in the downstream, the transaction atmosphere improved, the upstream goods went smoothly, the inventory was effectively removed, and the price was tentatively pushed up. At the same time, cost support increased, further boosting market prices. During the Spring Festival, the market maintained a stable trend, the market demand followed up slowly after the festival, and the quotations of individual enterprises fell.

The price of propylene rose steadily and was slightly stronger. Last month, the support of PP cost side was acceptable. In terms of industry load, PP polymerization enterprises’ maintenance downtime increased before the holiday, and the industry load fell back to about 80%. The supply of goods on the site is relatively sufficient, the inventory position has decreased, and the supply pressure has decreased. In terms of demand, the operating rate of the main downstream plastic knitting enterprises is average. The stock situation of terminal enterprises is not as good as expected. After the holiday, they purchase according to demand, and the spot price fluctuates and recovers.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the Business Agency, as of February 1, the spot price of domestic fiber PP was generally flat. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders Z30S (fiber) is about 8016.67 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price at the beginning of January, it has increased by – 1.43% and decreased by – 4.56% year-on-year. At the end of last year and the beginning of this year, the load of downstream non-woven enterprises, the main force of PP fiber, increased, and the demand of terminal enterprises tended to fall before the festival in the middle of the month. The digestion speed of non-woven end products decreased, and the enterprise’s replenishment operation of fiber PP weakened due to the holiday. After the resumption of work after the holiday, the spot price recovery is less than that of the drawing material, and it is expected that it will still maintain the operation of shock consolidation in the short term.

In terms of melt-blown materials, the melt-blown PP market fell from a high point last month. As of February 1, the average price quoted by the domestic melt-blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Business Society was about 10000 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of January, the increase and decrease rate was -10.18%, with a year-on-year increase of+5.45%. In terms of international health events, at the end of last year, the disposal of health events in China was optimized, resulting in a large demand for masks. However, at present, the social consumption of medical melt-blown cloth materials has been more beneficial, and the recent demand has declined and stabilized. Domestic and overseas demand has not been significantly boosted. At present, the supply of melt-blown materials in the market is abundant for a long time, and the saturation of domestic melt-blown materials and cloth enterprises is high. Therefore, the price of melt-blown materials may stabilize at the present time when the demand momentum slows down.

Aftermarket forecast

PP analysts of the Business Agency believe that the polypropylene market was first depressed and then rose last month. The market of raw material propylene has risen, and the cost support is acceptable. The demand of terminal enterprises tends to maintain production just in need, the intra-field trading is general, and the buyers operate cautiously. It is expected that the PP market will continue to consolidate and operate in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, the domestic carbon black price was 11950 yuan/ton on January 30, and the domestic carbon black market price was slightly down this month.

Cost side: the price of high temperature coal tar as a raw material fell this month and remained stable in the near future. The cost-side support of carbon black enterprises has weakened. At present, the operating rate of coke enterprises is stable, and the downstream deep-processing enterprises are stable as a whole, mainly purchasing on demand. The inventory in the coal tar yard has decreased.

Supply and demand: after the Spring Festival, some enterprises that have stopped production for maintenance have resumed production. Under the pressure of high inventory, the overall construction is not high.

Downstream tire enterprises have started construction in succession, mainly consuming inventory in the short term.

In general, the price of high-temperature coal tar as raw material is temporarily stable. With the decline of on-site inventory, the coal tar market has a certain sense of rising sentiment, which supports the price of carbon black. At present, there is no obvious benefit for downstream tire enterprises. It is expected that the carbon black market price will run smoothly in the short term. In the later stage, it is also necessary to pay attention to the raw materials and downstream market dynamics.

Recent urea price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic urea market price rose slightly this week, and the urea price rose from 2732.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 2745.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 0.48%, up 3.04% year-on-year. The urea commodity index on January 15 was 127.67, which was the same as yesterday, down 16.19% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15), and up 129.62% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Cost support increased, downstream demand weakened, and urea supply was tight

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream price of domestic urea rose this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the urea upstream market rose and fell this week: the price of liquefied natural gas fell slightly, from 6438.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 6232.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 3.20%, up 34.21% year on year; The price of anthracite rose slightly, with the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing lump) rising by 50 yuan/ton to 1920 yuan/ton; The price of liquid ammonia dropped slightly, from 4606.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 4190.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 9.04%, down 6.05% year on year. Upstream raw materials rose and fell sharply, and the price of urea was generally supported. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was low, and the price was 8233.33 yuan/ton.

From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand increased slightly and industrial demand was normal. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plant is average, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is average. The plate and melamine enterprises are generally started, and mainly need to purchase. From the perspective of supply: some units in Shanxi have started to resume production, and some gas head enterprises have stopped for maintenance. The daily output of urea is about 150000 tons.

Mainly rising slightly in the future

The domestic urea market may rise slightly in the middle and late January. According to the urea analyst of the Business Agency, the prices of anthracite and liquefied gas in the upstream of urea have risen and fallen, and the cost of urea is well supported. Downstream agricultural demand increased slightly, and industrial demand was normal. Some gas head enterprises shut down for maintenance, and the daily output of urea is about 150000 tons. In the future, urea rose mainly in a narrow range.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, this week Shanxi’s industrial first class potassium nitrate was reported at 5925.00 yuan/ton, and this week Shanxi’s industrial first class potassium nitrate was reported at 5912.50 yuan/ton, down 0.21%, and the current price rose 0.78% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

The domestic potassium nitrate market fell this week. From the figure above, we can see that the recent potassium nitrate market fluctuated slightly, and this week’s market volatility fell. The supply of domestic potassium manufacturers is normal. At present, the supply of goods is mostly concentrated in the hands of large traders. Near the Spring Festival, the downstream maintains the purchase of just needed products, and the market sentiment is poor, and the potassium nitrate market is weak. According to the statistics of the Business News Agency, the domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate quoted 5600-5900 yuan/ton this week (for reference only), which varies according to different procurement conditions.

Recently, the price of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers is 3850.00 yuan/ton. The sales price of domestic potassium 60% crystal is mostly 3550-3600 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan/ton at the low end). The price of 57% powder in Qinghai small factories is 3200-3300 yuan/ton, the price of 62% white potassium in Russia is mostly 3480-3500 yuan/ton in border trade areas (up 30 yuan/ton at the low end), the price of 62% white potassium in ports is mostly 3680-3750 yuan/ton, the price of large particles is mostly 3800-3900 yuan/ton, and the price of 60% red powder is 3800-3850 yuan/ton.

Recently, the domestic potash fertilizer market has consolidated. The Spring Festival is approaching, and downstream demand is poor. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will fall mainly in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

The domestic dimethyl ether market rose steadily this week (1.3-1.6), with the market in Henan rising slightly. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the average market price of dimethyl ether in Henan was 4400 yuan/ton on January 3 and 4475 yuan/ton on January 6, up 1.7% in the week, up 20.62% from the same period last year.

As of January 6, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

Region/ Mainstream quotation

Jiangxi Province/ 4570 yuan/ton

Hebei Province/ 3900-4790 yuan/ton

Henan Province/ 3900-4450 yuan/ton

The price of dimethyl ether in Henan Province rose slightly this week, the replenishment of downstream products after the holiday was OK, and the factory rose slightly. In other regions, the supply of goods is stable, and the downstream demand is mainly rigid, and the price is stable. Liquefied gas, a related product, showed a good trend in the week, supporting the rise of dimethyl ether, but with the weakening of the international crude oil price, it depressed the mentality of the industry, resulting in increased resistance to the rise, with narrow adjustment as the main factor.

The raw material methanol is put into operation, and the price rises and then falls, and the domestic supply level may continue to maintain a high level. It is expected that the short-term market will remain volatile and put into operation.

In general, with the end of the staged replenishment in the future market, the demand is expected to weaken, and the dimethyl ether market is expected to maintain stable operation in the future market in the short term.

The price of DOP rose after the holiday

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of January 6, the price of DOP was 9850 yuan/ton, up 1.03% from 9750 yuan/ton on January 1. The price of raw materials rose, and the price of DOP fluctuated.

The price of raw material isooctanol fell first and then rose

As of January 6, the price of isooctanol was 9566.67 yuan/ton, down by 1.71% from 9733.33 yuan/ton on January 1, according to the price monitoring of the business agency. The price of isooctanol fell first and then rose, the cost of DOP raw materials was adjusted by shocks, and the downward pressure on DOP was weakened.

The price of raw material phthalic anhydride dropped slightly

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, as of January 6, the price of o-phthalic anhydride was 8050 yuan/ton, down 0.16% from the price of 8062.50 yuan/ton on January 1. The price of o-phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable, the supply of phthalic anhydride is stable, the price decline of o-phthalic anhydride is slowing down, and the cost of DOP is stabilizing.

Aftermarket expectation

DOP data analysts of the Business Agency believe that the price of isooctanol, the raw material, has stopped rising after the holiday, the price of phthalic anhydride has declined slightly, the cost of DOP has stopped rising, and the downward pressure of DOP has weakened and the upward momentum has increased. In the future, the demand for DOP cost consolidation has warmed up, and the price of DOP is expected to stabilize strongly in the future.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex-factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China rose from 3700.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 3716.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 0.45%. The year-on-year decline was 18.91%. The calcium carbide commodity index on January 8 was 97.38, which was the same as yesterday, down 54.12% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 (2021-10-26), and up 75.49% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is general, and the downstream demand is good

From the perspective of manufacturer’s quotation, the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region rose slightly this week: the price of calcium carbide in OVA Energy this weekend was 3800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton compared with last weekend; The price of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia Zoomlion this weekend was 3650 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the last weekend; The price of calcium carbide in Xingping, Ningxia was 3700 yuan/ton at the end of this week, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the end of last week.

The market price of the upstream blue charcoal market was consolidated at a high level, while the price of the downstream PVC market rose slightly. At the end of this week, the price of Shenmu charcoal was around 1450-1800 yuan/ton, and the cost support was average. The market price of PVC rose from 6141.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6155.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 0.22%. 26.20% lower than the same period last year. The PVC market price rose slightly, the downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement increased, and the downstream PVC market had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide will rise in the aftermarket or in shock

In the middle and late January, the carbide market rose mainly in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue charcoal has been consolidated at a high level, and the cost support is good. The downstream PVC market has risen in a narrow range, and the downstream demand has increased. The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may rise in a narrow range in the middle and late January.

After the festival, DOTP prices rose in shock

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of January 6, the average price of DOTP was 9900 yuan/ton, up 1.02% from the average price of 9800 yuan/ton on January 1. The cost stopped falling and the demand recovered, while the DOTP price rose in shock.

After the festival, the price of raw materials fell first and then rose

According to the data of the business association; As of January 6, the price of isooctanol was 9566.67 yuan/ton, down 1.71% from 9733.33 yuan/ton on January 1. Demand recovered, the price of isooctanol stopped falling and rose, the cost of DOTP rose, and the momentum for DOTP to rise increased.

According to the data of the business association, as of January 6, the PTA price was 5405.91 yuan/ton, a shock drop of 3.75% compared with 5616.36 yuan/ton on January 1. Crude oil prices fell in shock, PTA demand recovered, PTA cost fell and demand recovered. PTA prices fell first and then rose, DOTP cost stopped falling, and the downward pressure on DOTP in the future market weakened.

Future market expectation

According to DOTP data analysts of the business association, after the festival, the plasticizer DOTP raw material isooctanol stopped rising, PTA prices fell first and then rose, and the cost of plasticizer DOTP raw material stopped falling. On the whole, the demand for DOTP cost to stop falling has warmed up, and the DOTP price has risen in shock. It is expected that DOTP will become strong and stable in the future.

In 2022, the domestic ethyl acetate market will fall in shock. According to the monitoring of the business community, the annual decline will be 17.65%, and the price will drop from about 8800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to about 7200 yuan/ton. On the one hand, the price of acetic acid fell sharply due to the suppression of cost. On the other hand, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent. The ethyl acetate industry is highly competitive, with serious overcapacity. The annual average operating rate of the industry is squeezed below 50%. Especially in the second half of the year, the price of ethyl acetate fell steadily, and at the end of November, it hit a new low for the whole year.

Specific trend:

Phase I: From January to February, the price of ethyl acetate plummeted from 8800 yuan to 7800 yuan/ton, a drop of 1000 yuan. For one thing, acetic acid fell sharply, dragging down the cost of ethyl ester. Acetic acid dropped by nearly 30% in the first two months. Acetic acid enterprises have oversupply, market supply exceeds demand, and the profits of acetic acid enterprises continue to decline. In addition, in February, the construction started to improve. After the festival, the main factories in Shandong stopped bidding. The factories accumulated inventory and the supply was loose. The manufacturers were forced to reduce prices and inventory, which depressed market confidence.

Phase II: From March to the first ten days of May, ethyl acetate came out of the shock and rebound market, mainly because the main factories in Shandong stopped for maintenance for a long time, the pressure of tight supply was greatly relieved, and the demand rebounded seasonally, so the price was relatively strong. At this time, the price of acetic acid has been at a historical low level, and ethyl acetate enterprises have also maintained a high profit margin.

The third stage: from the middle of May to the end of November, acetic acid continued to decline unilaterally, with a drop of more than 20%. The main reason is the steep drop of upstream acetic acid. 6. In July and August, acetic acid dropped by more than 40%. Moreover, the pressure of supply and demand appeared. With the resumption of the main factories in Shandong, the supply increased sharply. Due to the epidemic situation, downstream shipments were not smooth, and the price of ethyl ester fell again and again.

Stage IV: Since December, ethyl acetate has rebounded from the bottom. The direct reason is that Shandong large factories stopped selling and supply was tightened. The indirect reason was that the epidemic situation led to a sharp increase in the price of ethanol, which led to the shutdown of some ethyl acetate enterprises and the resale of ethanol, aggravating the current situation of the shortage of ethyl acetate supply.

2023 Outlook

On the supply side, the supply pressure of ethyl acetate will remain prominent in 2023. First, it is difficult to digest the excess capacity. Especially since the new 350000 ton ethyl acetate unit of Jinjiang Chemical was put into production, the contradiction of oversupply has been aggravated. At present, the capacity of ethyl acetate in China is close to 4 million tons; In 2022, the overall operating rate of ethyl acetate will be 40% – 50%, which indicates that there will still be more than 2 million tons of idle capacity in the future when the demand growth is relatively slow. In addition, domestic production capacity also further squeezed the share of imports. From January to November 2022, the cumulative import of ethyl acetate was 1155.71 tons, a year-on-year drop of 70.58 tons, or 5.76%. It is expected that the import volume will continue to shrink in 2023 with the increase of domestic production. The external dependence of ethyl acetate will also be further reduced.

On the demand side, the downstream applications of ethyl acetate mainly focus on coatings, pharmaceuticals, adhesives and inks. In 2022, due to the epidemic situation, enterprises in the ink packaging and adhesive industry had a great impact, and the demand for ethyl acetate was significantly impacted. It is expected that with the easing of restrictions in 2023, demand will recover. China’s ethyl acetate industry will also get policy optimization, and the market supply and demand will gradually become stable. A steady increase in demand will stimulate prices to return to normal levels.

To sum up, in 2022, ethyl acetate may become the periodic bottom. In 2023, upstream acetic acid has the power to rebound from the bottom, and ethyl acetate is expected to rise with it. However, the problem of oversupply still exists. The supply and demand game will continue. Ethyl acetate will seek an upward breakthrough in price based on the rebalancing of supply and demand, but the upward space should be treated with caution.

Aluminum price fell 3.13% in December

According to the data of the business community, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on December 30 was 18696.67 yuan/ton, a daily drop of 0.11%, down 3.13% from the aluminum price of 19300 yuan/ton on December 1.

Aluminum prices fell in December, mainly due to the fall of Lunan Aluminum, the external market, the small replenishment of stocks in Wuxi, and the weak downstream consumption.

In the long term, the average price of aluminum ingot market is 17450 yuan/ton compared with the recent recovery starting point (July 14, 2022), and the recent recovery is 7.26% higher.

Negative factors in policy:

Recently, the Tariff Commission of the State Council announced that the import and export tariffs of some commodities will be adjusted in 2023, including the export tariff of electrolytic aluminum from 15% to 30%.

The export volume of domestic electrolytic aluminum has continued to decline in the second half of 2022, which is expected to have limited impact on short-term supply and demand. But in the long run, it is not conducive to the expansion of the export volume of electrolytic aluminum.

Fundamental negative factors:

Aluminum prices fell 3.13% in December, mainly due to weak downstream demand. After the adjustment of public health policies in China, most of the domestic enterprises experienced a decline in the rate of on duty, and the operating rate of downstream enterprises was not high. As the Spring Festival approached, the demand for downstream terminals weakened. Some enterprises considered taking holidays in advance, and the dual pressure depressed downstream demand. The downstream is in the off-season, and the performance of aluminum downstream processing enterprises is weak. Among them, the operating rate of aluminum strip, aluminum cable, and aluminum foil has declined, and the demand is expected to decline further. At the same time, the expectation will gradually turn to reality, and the aluminum price will fluctuate slightly.

Although the aluminum price fell in December, it is still at a recent high. On the one hand, the price of raw aluminum oxide is strong, and cost factors support the aluminum price to some extent. On the other hand, the data of social inventory over the same period is still low.

In November, China’s bauxite output was 5.755 million tons, down 6.1% year on year. In November, China imported 11.789 million tons of bauxite, up 53.1% year on year. The price of mineral aggregate is firm, and the transportation is limited due to the epidemic disturbance in Shanxi and Henan; Construction in the north is affected by environmental protection; In addition, some alumina profits were reversed, and alumina production was moved downward. It is reported that in November, China’s metallurgical alumina output was 6.294 million tons, down 5.7% month on month and 3.2% year on year. In November, the alumina operating capacity was 76.6 million tons, and the national operating rate was 79%.

The hydropower generation in Yunnan accounts for 79% of the total power generation. The arrival of dry season will affect the hydropower supply. The production of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan will be reduced by more than 20%, affecting the production capacity of 1.3 million tons. At the same time, the recovery of electrolytic aluminum in Sichuan is slow. Some aluminum plants in Henan plan to reduce production due to the arrival of heating season and poor profitability, which will affect the annual production capacity of about 110000 tons. Shipping in Xinjiang is affected by material resources. In the short term, the domestic transport efficiency has declined, the arrival of goods from mainstream consumer areas is still low, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is still at a relatively low level in the same period of history. As of December 29, the social stock of electrolytic aluminum was 490000 tons, and the low stock level was an important short-term factor supporting the aluminum price. However, at present, with the factory inventory of 106,000 tons, the total warehouse is 506,000 tons. The month on month data is rising, which also reflects the relatively insufficient downstream consumption in the near future. There is a tendency to accumulate inventory near the Spring Festival.

Future market forecast

Near the Spring Festival, the downstream operating rate is difficult to improve. At present, the supply of aluminum ingots is relatively stable, the demand side is still weak, and the operating rate of large-scale downstream processing enterprises has further declined. On the one hand, the number of new orders at the end of the year declined, and enterprises mainly purchased on demand, with a weak desire to stock up. On the other hand, with the approaching of the peak of infection, the rate of factory arrival and the efficiency of cargo transportation have declined to some extent, and the overall consumption is weak. It is expected that the short-term aluminum price will be dominated by weak operation.