Price trend

The recent domestic PA6 market trend is weak, and the spot prices fall more or less. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 20, the average ex-factory price of domestic PA6 was 14133.33 yuan/ton, up – 0.54% from the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Raw materials:

It can be seen from the above figure that the price of caprolactam in the upstream of PA6 fell last week. The price of raw material pure benzene is higher than that before, and the cost support is acceptable. The operating rate of some enterprises increased, and the market spot supply increased. Downstream demand is weak, and on-demand procurement is the main part. The atmosphere of transaction on the market is weak, and the spot price of caprolactam is steadily reduced.

Supply:

In the middle of February, the load of domestic PA6 production enterprises fell to about 65% in a narrow range, and the overall operation was stable. The total output last week was about 84000 tons. The market supply is stable, the supplier’s support for spot goods is general, and the ex-factory price is loose.

Demand: In the downstream, the load of the weaving and spinning industry has increased, and the overall demand for PA6 chips by the end enterprises is moderate, but the spot competition on the market is strong, and the demand side has resistance to the high-priced supply. The market is mostly for early contract transactions, and the actual volume of single transaction has decreased.

Aftermarket forecast

The PA6 market fell in mid-February. The load of domestic polymerization plants has increased steadily, and the supply has maintained an adequate level. On the demand side, it tends to be rigid. Caprolactam is stable and weak, and PA6 cost support is general. The market sentiment is dominated by wait-and-see, and the volume of real orders has shrunk. It is expected that the PA6 market will continue to be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell sharply this week. This week, the average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream market fell from 8566.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7400.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 13.62%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 57.23% year on year. The isobutyraldehyde commodity index on February 19 was 37.56, which was the same as yesterday, down 64.43% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 (2021-09-16), and up 24.70% from the lowest point of 30.12 on October 7, 2022. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotations of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers fell this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 7558.25 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7513.25 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 0.60%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol rose slightly, from 10866.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 11033.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 1.53%. The market price of neopentyl glycol rose slightly and the downstream demand increased, which had a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in late February may be mainly volatile. The upstream propylene market fell slightly and cost support weakened. The market of neopentyl glycol in the downstream has a downward trend, and the purchasing enthusiasm in the downstream is general. The isobutyraldehyde analyst of the Business Club believes that the short-term isobutyraldehyde market may suffer from small fluctuations and falls under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other factors.

The price of polybutadiene rubber rose this week (2.10-217). According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of February 17, the domestic price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was 11910 yuan/ton, up 3.21% from 11540 yuan/ton last Friday. The price of raw butadiene continued to rise, and the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose; Within the week, the factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber supplier was increased by 300 yuan/ton, and the offer of merchants was higher. According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the ex-factory price of butadiene rubber of Sinopec North China Sales Company was 11700 yuan/ton as of February 17. As of the 17th, the mainstream market of butadiene rubber in Qilu, Yanshan, Yangzi, Dushanzi and Sichuan reported 11750~12100 yuan/ton, while the mainstream market of private butadiene rubber reported 11700~11750 yuan/ton.

The price of raw material butadiene rose slightly this week (2.10-217), while the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber continued to rise. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the price of butadiene was 9868 yuan/ton as of February 17, up 3.68% from 9518 yuan/ton on February 10.

This week (2.10-217), the natural rubber market corrected in a narrow range, and the impact on cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was slightly empty. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the price of natural rubber was 12000 yuan/ton as of February 17, up 0.08% from 11990 yuan/ton on Friday.

Recently, the construction of downstream tires has increased significantly, and the demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber has strong support. It is understood that as of February 10, 2023, the starting load of all steel tires of rubber tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 61.92%, 53.31% higher than that of the same period last year. The starting load of semi-steel tire of domestic rubber tire enterprises was 68.00%, 47.51% higher than that of the same period last year.

Future forecast: The analysts of the Business News Agency believe that the supply of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is stable at present, and the inventory of downstream raw materials is gradually consumed. With the increase of tire commencement, the demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will increase in the later stage, and it is expected that cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will continue to rise in the later stage.

According to the monitoring sample data of Business News Agency, the average price of melamine enterprises was 8266.67 yuan/ton as of February 16, down 0.80% from Monday’s price.

This week’s melamine market was weak. Recently, the market price of raw material urea fell first and then rose. The cost support was general. Some units at the supply end resumed production, and the melamine market operating rate increased slightly. However, the demand follow-up was insufficient. The export market was general. The domestic downstream demand recovery was slow. The market transaction was just needed. The contradiction between supply and demand was prominent. The focus of the melamine market was weak.

For upstream urea, the domestic urea market rose on February 16. On February 15, the reference price of urea was 2722.00, down 2.26% from February 1 (2785.00).

Melamine analysts from the Business Agency believe that the price of raw material urea is rising, the cost support is limited, the supply side is abundant, and the demand side is still weak. It is expected that the melamine market will be weak in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the changes in the cost side.

The domestic epoxy resin market continued to decline. After being driven higher by the cost side in the early stage, the overall epoxy resin market declined as the raw materials went down and its own demand was difficult to improve. The negotiated price in the East China market is 15300-15800 yuan/ton, and the Huangshan solid epoxy resin market is 14400-14800 yuan/ton, with a decline of 300-500 yuan/ton in the week.

From the perspective of raw materials, the bisphenol A market fell slightly last week. As of the 13th, the reference price of bisphenol A in East China was 9950-10000 yuan/ton, and the bisphenol A market in North China was discussed at 9850 yuan/ton, with a drop of about 200 yuan/ton in the week. The bisphenol A plant has a high operating rate, and the overall market supply is sufficient. The key is that the downstream epoxy resin and PC market is down, and the demand for raw materials is light. Under the pressure of shippers’ shipment, the market center of gravity has gradually declined. At present, it has been at the cost line of 10000 yuan/ton, and the short-term BPA has been adjusted in a weak way, with clear news.

The raw material epichlorohydrin market fell slightly. The reference price in the East China market was 8700 yuan/ton, and fell about 300 yuan/ton in the week. The epichlorohydrin market continued to decline. The slight support on the cost side was mainly due to the sluggish downstream market, the scarcity of raw material procurement, and the current industry operating rate remained around 60%.

The rise of international oil prices has driven up the prices of phenolic ketones, propylene and other products in the upstream of the industrial chain, but has little impact on the terminal epoxy resin market. From the perspective of the epoxy resin industrial chain, it is also difficult to form support on the cost side. In the case of insufficient downstream orders, small purchase orders and sufficient market supply, the epoxy resin market may still decline slightly.

Zinc prices fell sharply this week

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the zinc price was 22998 yuan/ton as of February 13, down 4.26% from 24022 yuan/ton on February 5 last weekend. The demand for zinc in futures is still weak due to the large increase in inventory, and the price of zinc fell in shock this week.

LME zinc ingot inventory surged this week

Time/ London Futures Inventory/ Increase or decrease/ Proportion of change

February 6/ 16225./ -150./ -0.92%

February 7/ 15600./ -625./ -3.85%

February 8/ 19425./ 3825./ 24.52%

February 9/ 21375./ 1950./ 10.04%

February 10 26250./4875./22.81%

From the LME inventory statistics table, LME zinc ingot inventory surged this week. As of February 10, LME’s zinc inventory was 26250 tons, a sharp increase from 16225 tons of zinc ingot inventory on February 6. London’s zinc inventory increased, and the London zinc price fell sharply on Friday. With the end of the winter heating peak in Europe, the operating rate of zinc smelting in Europe is expected to rise, and the supply of international zinc market is expected to increase; The supply of zinc is sufficient and the downward pressure is high.

Supply and demand situation of domestic zinc market

According to the results of incomplete output statistics, the output of zinc and zinc alloy of sample enterprises in January 2023 was 460000 tons, an increase of 1.3% on a year-on-year basis, an increase of 4000 tons on a month-on-month basis, and an increase of 0.6% on a month-on-month basis. The output of domestic zinc market increased, and the supply of zinc market was sufficient. After the Spring Festival, Henan Zinc Plant was put into operation, the supply of zinc market increased, and the social zinc inventory accumulated. Many places in China introduced economic stimulus policies, and the downstream demand recovered, but the demand is still weak at this stage. The supply and demand of zinc market is weak, and the downward pressure of zinc market is high.

Aftermarket forecast

According to the data analyst of the Business News Agency, in terms of supply, LME zinc inventory increased significantly this week, the supply of zinc in Europe increased, and the supply of domestic zinc market was stable; In terms of demand, the downstream demand has warmed up, but it is less than expected, and the overall zinc market demand is still weak. In the future, the supply and demand of zinc in the market will be weak in the short term, and the pressure on the price of zinc will increase. It is expected that the price of zinc will fall in shock.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, as of February 10, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 18666.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.90% compared with the price of 18500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 8.74% compared with the same period last year

According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency, as of February 10, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 24500.00 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price at the beginning of the month, and decreased by 10.37% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

As of February 10, the domestic price of chloroform continued to rise, rising by 3.16% in the month, while the price of hydrofluoric acid fell slightly, falling by 1.71% in the month. In general, the cost price of refrigerant R22 showed a rising trend, supported by cost, and the prices quoted by some enterprises rose slightly in February.

As of February 10, the price of hydrofluoric acid fell slightly by 1.71% in February, the price of trichloroethylene remained low, and the cost of raw materials showed a downward trend as a whole. Supported by the relatively low inventory of enterprises after the year, the price of refrigerant R134a remained stable this week.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic hydrofluoric acid price continued to decline in February, and the continued decline of raw material cost will further depress the domestic R134a price in the future.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Refrigerant analysts from Business News believe that in the short term, supported by the recovery of raw material costs, the market price of R22 will continue to be stable and strong; The cost of upstream raw materials is on the decline as a whole, and the price of R134a may fall slightly under the pressure of cost.

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, as of February 3, 2023, the reference market price of domestic industrial propylene glycol was 8066 yuan/ton. Compared with January 29 (the reference price of propylene glycol was 7900 yuan/ton), the price increased by 166 yuan/ton, or 2.11%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that in the first week of the return of the Spring Festival holiday in 2023 (1.29-2.03), the domestic propylene glycol market as a whole rose and then remained stable. After returning from the beginning of the week, the downstream demand of propylene glycol market was moderate, and the on-site supply of propylene glycol was tight. After the festival, the market price ushered in a small and steady rise, with an increase of around 100-200 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the propylene glycol market stabilized and consolidated. As of February 5, the domestic market price of propylene glycol is around 7900-8200 yuan/ton.

Future trend analysis

At present, there is a certain wait-and-see mood in the downstream of the propylene glycol market, and the market is waiting for the downstream demand to continue to release. The propylene glycol statistician of the business agency believes that it is expected that the domestic propylene glycol market will mainly run with a small rise in February, and more attention should be paid to the change of information on the supply and demand side.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic hydrochloric acid price fell slightly this week, and the average market price fell from 174.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 154.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 11.49%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 47.97% year on year. The hydrochloric acid commodity index on February 5 was 40.53, which was the same as yesterday, down 70.61% from the highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 125.42% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is weakened, and the downstream procurement is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the market of liquid chlorine in the upstream is low and the cost support is insufficient. The market price of downstream polyaluminum chloride decreased slightly, from 2020.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 1968.75 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 2.54%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 21.49% year-on-year; The market price of ammonium chloride rose slightly, from 1132.50 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 1187.50 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 4.86%. On the whole, upstream support is insufficient, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is general.

Aftermarket forecast

In the middle and late February, the market price of hydrochloric acid may rise in a narrow range. The recent low level of the upstream liquid chlorine market has consolidated, and the cost support is general. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market has declined slightly, the ammonium chloride market has risen slightly, and the downstream purchasing willingness has increased. Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that hydrochloric acid is mainly rising after a small fluctuation recently.

According to the bulk list data of Business News Agency, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 500000.00 yuan/ton as of February 6, down 5.66% from February 1.

The domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market fell this week (2.1-2.6). Recently, the price of lithium carbonate in the upstream has been reduced, which has insufficient support for the lithium hydroxide market. The first-tier manufacturers at the supply end mainly export, while the overseas prices have fallen. The second-tier manufacturers mainly supply domestic demand, while the domestic demand is weak. The market transaction atmosphere is light, and the enterprise quotation has been reduced.

For upstream lithium carbonate, on February 3, the reference price of lithium carbonate – industrial grade was 461600.00, down 0.86% from February 1 (465600.00).

The lithium hydroxide analyst of the Business Agency believes that the current weak shock of upstream lithium carbonate aggravates the wait-and-see atmosphere of the market, and the market inquiries increase, but the demand is still weak. It is expected that the domestic lithium hydroxide market will continue to be weak in the short term.