Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, the average price of silver market in early trading on July 30 was 5329.67 yuan / kg, which was 5279.33 yuan / kg higher than the average price of spot market on July 29; Increased by 0.95%; Compared with the early average price of 5304.33 yuan / kg in the spot market in early July (July 1), an increase of 0.48%; Compared with the beginning of the year (01.01), the spot price of silver was 5550 yuan / kg, a decrease of 3.97%.

On July 30, the early spot price of gold was 380.20 yuan / g, up 0.37% from the early spot price on July 29; Compared with the early average price of 366.77 yuan / g in the spot market in early July (7.1), an increase of 3.66%; Compared with the spot price of gold at the beginning of the year (01.01), 392.70 yuan / g, down 3.18%.

List of precious metal supply and demand data in 2021

According to the data of the World Gold Council, in the second quarter of 2021, the global gold consumption and investment demand increased compared with the first quarter.

Gold demand: in the second quarter of 2021, the total global demand for gold (excluding OTC transactions) reached 955.1 tons, an increase of 9% over the previous quarter, and a year-on-year decrease of only 1% compared with the same period in 2020 (960.5 tons).

In the second quarter, the demand for gold bars and gold coins increased year-on-year for the fourth consecutive quarter, reaching 243.8 tons, a year-on-year increase of 56%, the best quarterly performance since 2013.

The total global consumption of gold jewelry was 390.7 tons, a year-on-year increase of 60%. The global demand for science and technology funds was 80.0 tons, a year-on-year increase of 18%; The global gold ETF position increased by 40.7 tons. In the second quarter, central banks continued to maintain a steady pace of gold purchase, and the global official gold reserve increased by 199.9 tons, of which the central banks of Thailand, Hungary and Brazil bought the most.

Gold supply: the impact of the epidemic gradually subsided, and the total global gold supply reached 1171.7 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13%.

According to the data of the second quarter, the global gold consumption and investment demand showed a positive trend, but overall, the total global gold demand (excluding OTC transactions) in the first half of 2021 was 1833.1 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10%; The global gold ETF had a net outflow in the first half of the year for the first time since 2014, with an outflow of 129.3 tons.

Investment demand weakened, but physical demand increased year-on-year. In the first half of 2021, the global demand for gold bars and gold coins was 594.5 tons, the best performance since 2013, with a year-on-year increase of 45%; The global demand for gold jewelry reached 873.7 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 57%, but decreased by 17% compared with the average level in 2015-2019; Global central banks bought 333.2 tons of gold, up 63% year-on-year, 39% higher than the average level in the first half of the past five years; The global demand for science and technology gold was 161.0t, slightly higher than the 160.6t demand for science and technology gold in the first half of 2019, with a year-on-year increase of 14%.

The supply side recovered year-on-year. In the first half of 2021, the total global gold supply reached 2307.9 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%.

Fundamentals superimposed on policy, precious metals are good in the short term

The fundamentals of supply and demand show that in 2021, the demand for gold will gradually pick up, the supply will increase simultaneously, and there are signs of recovery after the reduction of investment demand. On the one hand, the gold price is falling at a high level, showing a certain speculative value and the market risk preference is rising; On the other hand, affected by inflation expectations, the demand for savings preservation of physical gold such as gold bars and gold coins increased.

In terms of policy, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep its key interest rate near zero at the policy meeting ended on Wednesday, which is good for precious metals to a certain extent; The US GDP in the second quarter was much lower than expected, and the US dollar continued to sell off on Friday. The dollar fell below 92. In the short term, precious metals have been strongly supported in the near future.

Future forecast

Ye Jianjun, an analyst at business society, expects that the price of precious metals will still fluctuate in the range in the near future. On the one hand, although the US dollar index has weakened recently, in the long run, it has rebounded from the low level at the end of the second quarter, with downward resistance support and strong overall uncertainty; On the other hand, inflation expectation vs interest rate increase operation expectation, the Fed’s expectation of monetary policy shift still exists, and the policy trend will continue to drag down the trend of precious metals.

The K-line chart of business society shows that since 2021 / 7 / 4, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average to start the upward trend, but the current two moving averages have the trend of going opposite. It is estimated on July 25, 2021 that the probability of operation situation change (i.e. the 7-day moving average crosses the 30-day moving average) in the next 7 days is 49.56%.

Technical indicators also show that the current operation situation is uncertain, mainly shock operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of caustic soda is running well. At present, the average market price in Shandong is 647.5 yuan / ton, which is 30.15% higher than that in the same period last year. On July 28, the caustic soda commodity index was 93.17, up 0.36 points from yesterday, down 54.96% from the highest point 206.87 in the cycle (November 14, 2017), and up 43.10% from the lowest point 65.11 on October 9, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Caustic soda prices have risen since July. The price of caustic soda in Shandong is rising, and the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 640-700 yuan / ton. Due to the tightening of maintenance supply of caustic soda manufacturers, the downstream demand is slightly better than before. Now caustic soda manufacturers adjust their prices according to their own conditions. It is comprehensively estimated that the subsequent upward market operation of caustic soda is mainly expected. The price of caustic soda in Hebei is rising. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 700-800 yuan / ton. It is expected that the subsequent good operation of caustic soda will be dominated. Data show that the operating rate of chlor alkali plant is about 84%,

Downstream: due to the inventory demand of downstream alumina for caustic soda, alumina enterprises in Shandong have raised the purchase price of local caustic soda four times. Caustic soda manufacturers are mainly active in shipping, and the trading atmosphere is acceptable. There is a good demand for caustic soda. At this stage, the price of caustic soda is running better.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of price rise and fall of chlor alkali industry in the 29th week of 2021 (7.19-7.23), there were 3 kinds of commodities rising, 1 kind of commodity falling and 1 kind of commodity rising or falling to 0. The main commodities rising were: caustic soda (7.05%), light soda (2.89%), calcium carbide (0.98%); The main commodities falling were PVC (- 0.14%). Both rose or fell by 2.16% this week.

Business analysts believe that recently, the price of caustic soda in Shandong has risen, the maintenance inventory of caustic soda manufacturers has decreased recently, and the downstream alumina is still supported by demand. In addition, the export of caustic soda is well oriented. According to the data, the export of liquid soda in June was 136400 tons, a month on month increase of 131.97% and a year-on-year increase of 456.73%. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to operate well, depending on the downstream market demand.

Trade name: styrene butadiene rubber 1502

Latest price (July 28): 13733 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business society, the domestic styrene butadiene rubber price was 13733 yuan / ton on the 28th, down 0.24% from the previous day. Recently, the price of natural rubber fluctuated in a narrow range below 13000 yuan / ton, which had a negative impact on styrene butadiene rubber. The price of raw butadiene stabilized, the price of styrene fluctuated at a low level, and the ex factory price of petrochemical manufacturers was reduced by about 300 yuan / ton on the 27th and 28th. Some traders’ offers followed the downward trend, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market was light.

Future forecast: the low price of natural rubber fluctuates in a narrow range, and the rise of raw material price gradually stops. On the whole, the impact on styrene butadiene is mainly empty, and it is expected that styrene butadiene rubber will be weak in the short term.

Recent price trend of potassium chloride

As can be seen from the above figure, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride in Qinghai has risen sharply recently. The quotation increased from 2525.00 yuan / ton on May 1 to 3210.00 yuan / ton on July 27, an increase of 27.13%. In July, the quotation of potassium chloride of Salt Lake shares was raised twice, with a total increase of 820 yuan / ton, or 33.47%. On July 1, the quotation was 2770 yuan / ton, an increase of 320 yuan / ton; On July 19, the price was adjusted again to 3270 yuan / ton, an increase of 500 yuan. Qinghai Salt Lake raised the quotation of potassium chloride, and local distribution enterprises raised the quotation one after another. The transaction price in domestic mainstream areas was 3800-4000 yuan, and the actual transaction was less. Most businesses have stopped quoting, waiting for the development of the market, and are reluctant to sell. A small amount of potassium chloride arrived at the import port, and the price continued to rise. The quotation of 62% Russian White potassium port was about 4250-4350 yuan / ton, an increase of 100 yuan / ton compared with the previous period. The quotation of 62% white potassium in border trade is 4000 yuan / ton, an increase of 200 yuan / ton compared with the previous period. There are few new orders signed in border trade areas, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

Strong international demand for potash fertilizer

Recently, the FOB price of potassium chloride in Vancouver is about 251-578 US dollars / ton, up 2-3 US dollars / ton compared with the previous period. The CIF price of potassium chloride in Southeast Asia is temporarily stable, about 340-370 US dollars / ton. In the past six months, the price of potassium chloride in Brazil and the United States has increased by more than 300 US dollars / ton, of which the price of large granular potassium chloride in Brazil has increased by more than 400 US dollars / ton to 640-670 US dollars / ton. In addition, EU sanctions against Belarus will not have a significant impact on its exports in the short term, but it may exacerbate the shortage of international potash supply.

There is a tight supply of domestic marketable goods

Due to the recent general rise in the prices of agricultural products and the general rise in farmers’ planting enthusiasm, the demand for potassium fertilizer has increased greatly. However, the available spot in the domestic potassium chloride market is in short supply, and the domestic inventory is relatively low. Although domestic potassium chloride plants have resumed production, some small plants are still under maintenance. It is roughly estimated that the inventory of potassium chloride in the port is about 2-2.5 million tons, but the saleable volume is less than 1 million tons. At the same time, recent rainstorms occurred frequently in Qinghai, and the commencement and shipment of potassium chloride decreased slightly.

Import and export

Import: from January to June, China imported 4.53 million tons of potassium chloride, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%; Among them, the import of potassium chloride in June was 488600 tons, down 11% from 549700 tons in May, basically the same as that in the same period last year. Export: from January to June, China exported 168500 tons of potassium chloride, an increase of 53.2% over the same period last year. In June, China exported 37800 tons of potassium chloride, an increase of 126.3% over the same period last year.

Short supply, bullish outlook

The overall trend of potassium chloride Market in early August or high consolidation. There is a tight supply of marketable potash fertilizer in China. Although the production enterprises are fully engaged in production, the operating rate is slightly low and the self-sufficiency rate is insufficient. At the same time, the delivery of international potash fertilizer suppliers is delayed and the arrival at the port is limited. Potassium chloride analysts of business society believe that the domestic potassium chloride price may continue to consolidate at a high level in the short term, focusing on the international market and arrival in Hong Kong.

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, as of July 26, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 95000 yuan / ton, up 4.78% compared with the price of July 20, 5.95% higher than that on June 26, and 18.26% year-on-year in three months.

In the early July, the market of lithium hydroxide rose steadily, with an overall increase of 1.12%. In late July, the lithium hydroxide market rose again. In recent years, some manufacturers have been overhauling their equipment, the spot supply in the market is reduced, the downstream demand is increasing, and the market supply and demand continue to be tight, and the market is firm and upward.

Data of lithium hydroxide output: in June 2021, the output of lithium hydroxide, the main manufacturer in China, was 17500 tons, an increase of 13.41% on a month basis.

According to the data of business society, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 87000 yuan / ton by July 26, up 0.46% compared with the price at the beginning of the month. On July 26, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 90800 yuan / ton, up 0.44% compared with the price at the beginning of the month.

According to the analysts of lithium hydroxide of business society, in a comprehensive view, the current market supply and demand are tight and balanced, and the cost side is supported. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide Market will be mainly strong operation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the market information guidance.

This week (July 19-23), the price of domestic ethyl acetate continued to decline. After a continuous decline in July, it stabilized slightly at the weekend, and the prices of most manufacturers stopped falling. According to the monitoring of business society, the rise and fall range of this week was 1.16%, and the prices of some domestic manufacturers fell. At present, the price is in the range of 8250-8550 yuan / ton.

First of all, from the perspective of the upstream acetic acid market, the acetic acid price stabilized after falling this week. According to the monitoring of the business society, since the beginning of July, the acetic acid price has continued to decline, but the decline has slowed down significantly this week, with a weekly decline of 0.5%, mainly due to the poor market atmosphere and the continuous downturn of downstream demand. Affected by this, the acetic acid production enterprises have reduced the unit load, reduced the supply and output, and the manufacturer’s price has gradually stabilized, Stopping the decline of costs has brought some support to the ethyl acetate Market.

In addition, from the perspective of supply and demand of ethyl acetate, first of all, the supply of ethyl acetate at the supply side declined slightly. The equipment maintenance of main manufacturers in Shandong Province and the reduction of supply are expected to bring benefits to the market. On the demand side, in addition, the price is relatively low, the downstream procurement is slightly large, replenishment and hoarding coexist, and the manufacturer has a strong willingness to support the price, but it is still in the off-season of the market, and the continuous follow-up of the downstream needs to be further observed.

In the future, the ethyl acetate analyst of business society believes that with the full load operation of the unit in Guangxi and the stable production, and the resumption of production of two units next week, it is expected that the recent supply increment of ethyl acetate will be obvious. On the premise of no significant improvement on the demand side, it is unlikely that the price of ethyl acetate will continue to pick up.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of July 19, the average price of pet water bottle manufacturers was 7170.00 yuan / ton. The overall pet market was running smoothly, with a slight upward trend. The quotation of manufacturers increased slightly, up 6.22% compared with the same period last month.

Recently, the price of pet market is mainly stable, with some manufacturers’ prices rising slightly and rising narrowly. At present, the pet inventory is normal, and the downstream just needs to purchase. The purchasing enthusiasm is general, and the negotiation focus is stable. The mainstream price range of pet is about 7200 yuan / ton.

On July 18, the rubber and plastic index was 806 points, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 23.96% compared with 1060 points (2012-03-14), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 52.65% compared with 528 points, the lowest point on April 6, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now

Business community pet analysts believe that: in the short term, pet prices rose slightly, the center of gravity moved up（ To learn more about the latest market trends, please pay attention to the official account of the business community, get information on goods, and grasp the price of commodities.

Recent trend of urea price

As can be seen from the figure above, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose this week, from 2720.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2780.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 2.21%, and a year-on-year increase of 67.81%. Overall, the urea market rose this week, with the urea commodity index at 129.30 on July 16.

Upstream support strengthened, downstream demand slowed down, supply side was tight, printing label stimulated

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong rose this week. Urea in Yangmei plain has not been quoted this week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2780 yuan / ton this weekend, up 60 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea has not been quoted this week.

From the data of upstream and downstream industry chain, the upstream products of urea increased slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas increased slightly, from 4093.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4246.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 3.73%, 72.40% compared with the same period last year; The price of steam coal rose slightly, from 982.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1005.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 2.29%, 69.33% over the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, from 4450.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4516.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 1.50%, 45.70% over the same period last year. Melamine in the lower reaches of urea rose slightly this week, from 11633.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 12200.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 4.87%.

In terms of demand, there is a small amount of topdressing in North and East China, but the agricultural demand is general; The downstream compound fertilizer, rubber sheet factory and melamine enterprise started well, and most of them were purchased and used at any time, and followed up at a proper amount. From the aspect of supply: in the near future, the production of urea enterprises has been reduced and resumed alternately, the recovery of start-up is slow, the daily output is about 160000 tons, and the supply side is tight. At the same time, enterprise inventory and social inventory are also maintained at a low position. International aspect: India announced the fifth urea import bidding in the year on the evening of July 13 (Tuesday), opened the bid on July 22, and scheduled the shipment on August 31, which boosted the domestic market mentality. On the whole, the cost support of urea is strengthened, the downstream demand is weakened, but the supply is tight, the printing standard is stimulated, and the market price may reach the peak again.

India standard boost, future price bullish

In late July, the urea market in Shandong may rise slightly. According to urea analysts of business news agency, at present, the agricultural demand in various regions has declined, the industrial demand has followed up steadily, and the downstream businesses have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for high price urea, but the urea plant maintenance is still tight, the supply is tight, the printing standard is landing, the domestic market mentality has been boosted, and the market price in the future may fluctuate slightly.

Trade name: sulfuric acid

Latest price (July 19): 686.67 yuan / ton

On July 19, the price of sulfuric acid Market in Shandong increased by 16.67 yuan / ton, or 2.49%, compared with the quotation on July 16. From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the sulfur market in the upstream has been rising step by step recently, and the cost support is good. Moreover, the bromine market in the downstream is also rising steadily, which has a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid.

Recently, the market price of sulfuric acid in Shandong may rise slightly, and the average price is about 690 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market continued to decline this week, with the decline increasing. The market was 7804 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and the average price at the weekend was 7654 yuan / T, down 1.91%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business agency, the propylene market this week is affected by the cost side, and the price of the company is down by 100-200 yuan / day this week compared with last week. The current market mainstream quotation is 7600-7700 yuan / ton, and the low-end price falls below 7000 yuan / ton. Downstream on demand procurement, general demand, cost side of the direct leading propylene market for nearly a week of price reduction.

This week, oil prices were still fermenting as OPEC and OPEC + reached an agreement on production increase, and worries over the virus of epidemic variation deepened the decline in oil prices. Crude oil fell 3.9 percent this week, which has a significant impact on the market’s profitability.

This week, PP prices fell slightly, the downstream enterprises started low and demand was scarce. The follow-up of purchasing was weak, and the response to high price sources was poor, with a decline of 0.19% in the week.

Acrylic acid prices continued to rise this week. Due to the overhaul of some enterprises, the spot supply was tight, downstream on demand procurement, the market trading and investment rhythm was active, and the price rose steadily. The increase was 1.39% in the week, which supported propylene.

This week, the price of propylene oxide rose sharply, the propylene oxide manufacturers were not pressured, the downstream polyether orders were stable and medium increment, and the market was up. The middle and lower reaches just needed to follow up steadily, the market was not pushed up, and the price rose 10.4 in the week, which supported the propylene market.

In general, the rise and fall of propylene downstream are mutual, and the overall demand level is not changed much.

3、 Future forecast

The propylene analyst of the chemical branch of the business society thinks: the propylene market is dominated by crude oil price, closely pays close attention to the change of oil price, and the probability of further low short-term price is high.