The contradiction between supply and demand is prominent. Although the crude oil price fluctuated at a high level and rose slightly over the weekend, it is still difficult to support the MTBE market, and the MTBE market price fell significantly for several consecutive days. According to the data of business news agency, as of July 9, the price of MTBE was 5946 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 0.78% and a year-on-year increase of 55.13%.

MTBE market continued to decline, with a decline of 40-100 yuan / ton. Crude oil rose slightly, but it is difficult to give market support. In the near future, the contradiction between supply and demand still exists, and the sales pressure of merchants is increasing, especially in the northern region. Although the profits are sold one after another, the transaction has not improved significantly, and the merchants continue to adjust. In East China, under the pressure of the continuous decline in the north, coupled with the weak demand in the region, businesses stick to the disadvantage and follow into the decline.

In terms of external market, as of July 8, the closing price of Asian MTBE market was reduced by US $30 / T compared with the previous trading day, while FOB Singapore closed at US $772-774 / T. The closing price of MTBE market in Europe decreased by 33 US dollars / ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB ara closed at 790.5-791 US dollars / ton. The closing price of MTBE market in the United States was down by US $7.88/t compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Gulf offshore price closed at US $788.03-788.38/t (221.98-222.08 cents / gal).

region ., Country. Closing price. Up and down

Asia FOB Singapore 772-774 USD / T – US $30 / T

U.S.A FOB Bay US $88.03-788.38/t – US $7.88/t

Europe FOB ARA 790.5-791 USD / T – 33 USD / T

In the near future, crude oil stopped falling and went up, which gave some support to the market. In addition, the recent decline was slightly larger, and low prices attracted a small amount of purchase intention of some businesses. MTBE analysts from the business community believe that the domestic MTBE market will still be mainly in a narrow range in the short term.

On July 6, international oil prices fell sharply. The settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was 73.37 US dollars / barrel, down 1.79 US dollars or 2.4%. The settlement price of the main contract in the Brent crude oil futures market was 74.53 US dollars / barrel, down 1.64 us dollars or 2.2%. Oil prices rose sharply on Monday after the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) called off the meeting because they could not reach an agreement on increasing supply. However, it turned lower on Tuesday, mainly because the market was worried that some OPEC member countries would increase production; Driven by high oil prices, the US shale oil supply is expected to increase.

This round of OPEC ministerial meeting is full of twists and turns. Since July 1, i.e. last Thursday, the meeting began to negotiate, because UAE opposes a new production increase agreement (400000 B / D per month from August to December this year, and 2 million B / D by the end of this year), the meeting has been postponed to last Friday, but the meeting still has no result; Until the meeting reopened on Monday, the UAE was always opposed to the latest production increase agreement. The meeting was forced to stop and oil prices continued to rise. On Monday, the settlement price of Brent crude oil rose to US $77.16/barrel, up US $0.99 or 1.3%.

However, the wind direction of the market changed suddenly on Tuesday, and the OPEC meeting failed to reach an agreement again and again, which made the market lose confidence in the future direction of OPEC. Even if the future policies were reluctantly implemented, the market also had doubts about the implementation of the member states’ production control policies. If the UAE increases production, other member states may follow suit, which will make OPEC’s effect of balancing oil supply in the oil market fail.

In addition, the oil price is at a high level, the market shows more concern about the increase of shale oil production in the United States, the U.S. economy continues to pick up, the inventory data keeps falling, and the market expects that the U.S. shale oil producers will continue to increase supply. Due to the comfortable price, the U.S. production has returned to about 11 million B / D, but compared with the production of about 13 million B / D in 2019, the U, There is still a lot of room for improvement.

In the future, the business community believes that short-term oil prices are intertwined. Although the global economy is still in the process of recovery, there are more risks in the supply side. Therefore, there is a great deal of uncertainty in the oil market. Guided by the news, the short-term oil market may continue to fluctuate and widen its amplitude. In the medium term, it is generally expected that the oil price will continue to challenge the $80 level.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the price of chloroform rose slightly in June. At the beginning of the month, the price was 4250 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price of chloroform was 4350 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 2.35% at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month.

The price of raw material liquid chlorine is low, and the cost support is weak. The lower price of methanol also formed a certain negative atmosphere for chloroform. According to the business news agency, as of the end of June, the mainstream ex factory price of liquid chlorine for tank cars in Shandong Province was around 850 yuan / ton, down 58.54% from 2050 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; Methanol price dropped from 2665 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2555 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an overall decline of 4.13%.

In June, China entered the high temperature stage in summer, and the demand for refrigerant had a certain rigid support, which formed a certain support for trichloromethane as a whole.

Business community methane chloride data analysts believe that the current cost side support is weak, the demand side still has support, it is expected that the price of chloroform will be stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. The average price of potassium chloride mainstream comprehensive quotation this week is 2800.00 yuan / ton. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market was temporarily stable, with the potassium chloride commodity index at 88.89 on July 2.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers is temporarily stable: the ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend is 2450 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Anhui Badou potassium chloride weekend sales offer 3150 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the offer is temporarily stable. The actual turnover of potassium chloride market this week is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction of the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, downstream purchasing is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

In the first ten days of July, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate slightly. The KCl market is facing the pressure of three big mountains, namely, Hong Kong’s large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. KCl analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of the short-term KCl market, the KCl market may be dominated by high consolidation.

On July 1, international oil prices rose sharply, with the settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market at US $75.23/barrel, up US $1.76 or 2.40%. Brent crude oil futures market settlement price of the main contract at 75.84 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 1.22 U.S. dollars or 1.63%. WTI broke through $76 in the session, reaching a new high since October 2018. At the macro level, is the economic data good for support? U.S. stocks rose sharply and the expectation of economic recovery boosted oil prices. In addition, OPEC members had different opinions, and the meeting was postponed to Friday. In the second half of the year, OPEC’s supply tone was still inclined to high oil prices, which made the market warm up.

On Thursday local time, the latest data released by the U.S. Department of labor showed that 364000 people applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the week ending June 26, a decrease of 51000 compared with the previous week, and far lower than the 390000 expected by the market. In addition, PMI data was also eye-catching, with the final PMI value of 62.1 in the United States in May, reaching a new high for the second consecutive month. The favorable economic data boosted US stocks to a new high, and the premium of risky assets represented by crude oil was also greatly pushed up.

In addition to the positive expectation of economic recovery, the ambiguous internal supply policy of OPEC + on the supply side has also brought upward momentum to oil prices. The OPEC + internal meeting, which should have been held on Thursday, is quite important and may be related to the main tone of OPEC + supply policy in the second half of the year.

On Thursday, news came from the market that there was disagreement between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which forced the OPEC + meeting to be postponed to Friday. The specific point of divergence is a proposal agreed by Saudi Arabia and Russia. According to the proposal, oil production will increase by another 400000 barrels a day from August to December, and the total daily production will increase by 2 million barrels. The proposal is relatively conservative, and lower than the previous market expectation of 500000 barrels of supply, the market is more bullish atmosphere.

Recently, the international oil market has seen a lot of good news. Crude oil analysts from business news believe that oil prices may continue to hover at a high level in the short term. On the one hand, it is driven by the expectation of economic recovery. On the other hand, it is expected that OPEC’s main tone of relaxing production reduction in the second half of the year may still be relatively conservative, because Saudi Arabia and Russia have high expectations of high oil prices. Many institutions also generally predict that the oil price may exceed $80 in the second half of the year. In short, the oil price may fluctuate from high to high in the short term, but in the medium and long term, the oil price still has action power.

Commodity index: on June 29, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 88.35, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 17.53% compared with the highest point 107.13 in the cycle (May 8, 2019), and increased by 6.59% compared with the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020（ Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)

According to the data of Business News Agency (100ppi. Com), in June, the price fluctuation of polyacrylamide was very small, no more than 1%, showing a trend of flat first, then down, and then up. On the 1st, the domestic mainstream reported 14383.33 yuan / ton, and on the 29th, the mainstream reported 14460 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of only 0.53%; Among them, the highest price of this month is 14383.33 yuan / ton, the lowest price is 14300 yuan / ton, and the maximum amplitude is 0.58%.

Upstream raw material: this month, the market of raw material acrylonitrile first rose rapidly, then fluctuated, then weakened slightly, and then remained stable: at the beginning of the month, the crude oil led to the rise of propylene, which led to the rise of acrylonitrile, with an increase of 3.87% in the first half of the month, and the price rose to 15040.00 yuan / ton on the 10th; In the second half of the month, the price dropped slightly by 1.47% to about 14930.00 yuan / ton, the market trading atmosphere was light, the cost support was general, the downstream demand performance was not strong, and the supply and demand situation was not affected by the device maintenance. The market has been stable for a while after the shock and decline.

Secondly, natural gas is used in the production process. In April, the LPG civil market continued to rise sharply, and the price kept rising in the first half of the month, especially after the Qingming Festival holiday; However, in late April, the price of liquefied petroleum gas for civilian use showed a “slide” market, and remained stable after a 5-6% drop. In May, the LPG market experienced twists and turns, showing an overall upward trend; According to the data monitoring of the business society, the average price of LPG in Shandong market on May 5 was 4066.67 yuan / ton, and on March 31 was 4143.33 yuan / ton, with an increase of 156.66 yuan / ton. In fact, the highest price in May was 4306.67 yuan / ton, and the lowest price was 4133.33 yuan / ton, with a monthly maximum amplitude of 4.02%. In June, at the beginning of the month, 4143.33 yuan / ton, the rise of international crude oil led Shandong civil gas market to stop falling and go up. After the Dragon Boat Festival, Shandong civil gas market was supported by good news and went up as a whole, but the price rise did not continue. Weak terminal demand brought obvious constraints to the market, and the upward route was blocked again. As of the 28th, the mainstream price of Shandong civil gas market was 4266.67 yuan / ton. In the second quarter, the domestic mainstream quotation of LPG fluctuated greatly, with the highest price of 4410 yuan / ton and the lowest price of 4000 yuan / ton, and the maximum amplitude of 10.25%.

Downstream demand: in this quarter, the environmental protection shutdown period of the previous quarter was extended, the inventory was consumed, and the price rose slightly. However, after the resumption of production, the production of the enterprise recovered, the inventory increased rapidly, and the change of downstream demand was still tepid, the polyacrylamide inventory accumulated, and the demand was weak, which played a reverse role on the market, And this quarter polyacrylamide has a small rise, mainly affected by changes in raw material prices. During the three months of this quarter, although some manufacturers occasionally stopped production, the overall inventory was sufficient, the demand was general, and the polyacrylamide market was generally weak.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, in addition to the end of the month due to the environmental protection shutdown, the production of water treatment plants in June was basically normal, the polyacrylamide inventory was sufficient, the demand did not change significantly, and the market had no obvious action. The only thing worth noting is that due to the sharp rise of crude oil in this quarter, the downstream industry chain rose, and the price of propylene also went up. As the downstream of propylene, the price of acrylonitrile rose to a certain extent. However, due to the weak promotion of the downstream, the upward range was small and the sustainability was not strong; As the downstream of acrylonitrile, the joint action of polyacrylamide weakened again, and the downstream demand was not strong, which led to the overall weak price; At the same time, the role of LPG price changes has not been correctly reflected. Overall, this month’s polyacrylamide market is weak and volatile, and the short-term changes in the future market will not be obvious, mainly stable.

Trade name: caprolactam

Latest price: 14000 yuan / ton

Commodity index: on June 30, the caprolactam commodity index was 70.42, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 29.58% compared with the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (March 2, 2017), and increased by 78.73% compared with the lowest point of 39.40 on April 7, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from March 1, 2017 to the present

Analysis points: caprolactam price is stable today. The price of raw material pure benzene continued to rise. Today, the price of pure benzene is 8100-8450 yuan / ton. As of June 30, the price of caprolactam liquid in Nanjing Dongfang was 14650 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit was in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit was in normal operation. Sinopec caprolactam liquid price 14300 yuan / ton. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 14300 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year, the unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 14300 yuan / T. The 300000 t / a unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance.

Future forecast: due to the price of raw material pure benzene continues to rise, cost support is good, caprolactam supply is less. Caprolactam prices are expected to continue to rise in the short term.

Price analysis of this week (6.21-6.28, the same below)

According to the data of business news agency, the average price of domestic silicon metal (441) market on June 28 was 14350 yuan / ton, up 0.58% from 14266.67 yuan / ton on June 21, and 36.34% from last year.

The price of 441 ᦇ silicon in different regions on the 28th is as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Huangpu port area is 14500-14600 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14550 yuan / ton; The price range of silicon metal in Tianjin port area is 14500-14600 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14550 yuan / ton; The price range of ᦇ 441 metallic silicon in Kunming is 14200-14300 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14250 yuan / ton; The price range of silicon metal in Sichuan is 14100-14200 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14150 yuan / ton; Fujian ᦇ 441 metal trading range 13400-13600 yuan / ton, the average price of 13500 yuan / ton; The price range of silicon metal in Shanghai is 15000-15200 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15100 yuan / ton.

Market analysis of this week

In terms of inventory, large factories in northern China have temporarily stopped production. In addition, the power rationing period in Yunnan is nearly a month. Although some silicon factories have resumed work, the overall spot is still not much; In terms of cost, affected by the rise of electricity price in wet season in Yunnan, the electricity cost of silicon plant increased, and the coke cost increased by 22.57%, so the possibility of silicon price falling in Yunnan is small in the short term; In terms of output, the operating rate of Xinjiang silicon plant is not high, and the output supply of large plants is reduced. The recent high silicon price is caused by many factors, such as the shutdown of large factories, the cost of power in Yunnan, and the current situation in Xinjiang.

Future forecast

At present, the resumption of production of Yunnan silicon plant is still short, still in the empty window period, and there are few in stock. It is expected that further resumption of production will take place next month. The shutdown time of large factories in the north is not expected to exceed 20 days. The output of metallic silicon will also increase significantly in July. Most of the organic silicon plants in Xinjiang started normal this week, and the market anxiety has eased. In addition, due to the promotion of photovoltaic industry, the demand for metallic silicon has increased, Business community analysis believes that the price of silicon metal in July will still be high.

1、 Price trend

Mixed xylene rose slightly this week, according to business news agency’s block list. On June 20, the price of mixed xylene was 5840 yuan / ton; On this Sunday (June 27), the price was 5880 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton or 0.68% from last week; It was 59.78% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Although crude oil and external market support is good, domestic mixed xylene demand support is insufficient and growth is limited. In terms of external market, as of June 25, the price of imported mixed xylene from South Korea was 792.5 US dollars / ton, up 34 US dollars / ton or 4.48% from June 18; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was $806 / T, up 29 / T or 3.73% from June 18.

In terms of crude oil, the market is optimistic about the recovery of crude oil demand, US crude oil inventories continue to decline, and international oil prices continue to rise. Compared with June 18, Brent rose $2.71/barrel, or 3.69%; WTI rose $2.41 per barrel, or 3.36%.

Downstream, PX market, domestic PX prices remained stable this week, at 6500 yuan / ton, up 58.54% year on year. As of June 25, the closing price of Asian region is 918-920 USD / T FOB Korea and 936-938 USD / T CFR China.

PTA Market in East China continued to rise this week, with the price of 4159.55 yuan / ton on Friday (June 25), up 8.46% from last week and 40.44% from the same period last year. International crude oil prices continue to rise, in this context, PTA Market obviously get cost support.

In terms of ox market, the price of ox this week was flat compared with last week. On Sunday, the price of ox in East China was 6200 yuan / ton, up 39.01% compared with the same period last year. The external quotation of o-benzene dropped, and the o-benzene in port went to the warehouse at a high level; The cost range is narrow; The downstream market fluctuated and fell, the demand was just needed, and the transaction enthusiasm was general.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts from business society chemical branch think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

The prospect of crude oil market is good, and the support of p-xylene is good; However, the general follow-up of the downstream market and weak demand limited its rise. On the whole, xylene mixture continued to be weak in the short term. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, xylene plant maintenance trends, port inventory and downstream demand (gasoline market).

According to the data monitored by the business society, the domestic first class industrial grade potassium nitrate quotation was 4870.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, 5080.00 yuan / ton of domestic first class industrial grade potassium nitrate at the weekend, up 4.31%, and the current price rose 12.89% on a month-on-year basis, and the current price rose 21.31% year on year.

This week, the domestic market of potassium nitrate rose, the market supply is tight, most of which is concentrated in the hands of large traders, covering the market and sparing sales, the overall market transaction is slow. The overall supply is low, downstream market on demand procurement, potassium nitrate market continues to rise, prices continue to break through the highest point. According to statistics of business agency: the domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate offer 4800-5200 yuan / ton this week (quotation is for reference only), and different prices are offered according to the purchase situation.

Recently, the quotation of the mainstream manufacturers of potassium chloride was at the top: on June 24, the KCl equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. was in normal operation. The factory offer is about 2450 yuan / ton, and the quotation is stable temporarily, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. On June 24, the KCl equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Co., Ltd. was in normal operation. The factory offer is about 2450 yuan / ton, and the quotation is stable temporarily, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. Recently, after a round of increase, the KCl market temporarily consolidated at a high level, port stocks were tight, traders were slow to ship, and prices remained high.

In the near future, the domestic potassium chloride market has been in a short-term tight supply, and the supply of imported potassium is limited. It is expected that the market of potassium nitrate will be mainly rising in the short term, and the long-term market will still be waiting（ The above prices are provided by major manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of business society. For reference only, please contact relevant manufacturers for more details.