According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, since December, there has been a long short game, and the palm oil spot market has experienced a sharp decline after rising, with prices oscillating and falling, with an overall decline of over 2%. On December 1st, the average market price of palm oil was 10350 yuan/ton, and on December 13th, the average market price of palm oil was 10078 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.63% in price.

Long short game: domestic palm oil market plummets from high to low

Since December, the palm oil market has experienced a surge, with prices approaching 10500 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 2%. Due to ongoing negative factors, palm oil experienced a plunge after rising, and the market continued to decline, with prices dropping to around 10000 yuan/ton, a drop of over 3%. The current rise in palm oil prices is mainly driven by external market conditions. Due to poor terminal demand, there is insufficient momentum for sustained upward movement. After the rise, there is a pullback, and the price returns to a low level.

Li Bing, a palm oil analyst at Shengyi Society, believes that after mid December, Malaysian palm oil in the external market is still in a production reduction cycle, and there is still room for an upward trend in the palm oil market in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been running weakly this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was around 1021 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 1008 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.27% and a year-on-year increase of 19.43%. On December 8th, the chemical index was 847 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 39.50% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 41.64% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been weak this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is weak, with a downward trend of 10-20 yuan/ton. The mainstream market price of 32% ion membrane alkali is around 950-1040 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is weak, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion membrane alkali being around 1000-1080 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is temporarily stable, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion membrane alkali being around 2800-2900 yuan/ton (converted to 100 yuan). This week, as the main downstream procurement prices have declined, affecting the market atmosphere, caustic soda prices have also declined. Downstream purchases are mainly based on demand, and the industry is mainly observing and observing.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 49th week of 2024 (12.2-12.6), there were 0 products that rose, 4 products that fell, and 2 products that rose or fell zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing a decline are PVC (-2.30%), calcium carbide (-1.72%), and caustic soda (-1.27%).

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been weak, and the demand for non aluminum industries has been weak. Downstream companies are mainly cautious and watching, and the supply-demand game is comprehensive. It is expected that caustic soda will maintain a weak operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

Ethylene glycol prices fall in November

The price of ethylene glycol slightly increased in December. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of December 6th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4613.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.47% from the average price of 4591.67 yuan/ton on December 1st.

In the morning session, spot contract traders had good trading. After the market rose, there was an increase in spot contract shippers, and receiving traders were cautious and afraid of high prices. They did not receive many orders, and the market trading was relatively weak. During the trading session, the main focus was on high priced shipments from base traders.

On December 6th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained basically stable, with prices in the northwest region ranging from 4240-4350 yuan/ton, including taxes.

On December 5, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was $543/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was $550/ton.

Strong domestic supply and weak demand for ethylene glycol remain unchanged

In December, the domestic supply and demand fundamentals of ethylene glycol maintained a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The domestic supply of ethylene glycol has increased month on month, and the operating rate has remained relatively high. In terms of demand, the downstream polyester load is relatively high, and the filament maintains a high operating load, with little room for further improvement. The loading and weaving loads are weakening. Terminal autumn and winter orders have still fallen short of expectations in the near future, with expectations of a weakened polyester load in December.

Approaching the Spring Festival (January), it is highly likely that the operating rate of downstream polyester plants will decrease, and terminal weaving orders will fall. Terminal manufacturers will gradually enter a state of production reduction, shutdown, and holiday shutdown by the end of December, and polyester will gradually enter a state of accumulated inventory. Recently, downstream filament and splicing factories have gradually begun to release maintenance plans, and there are signs of a decline in downstream operating rates.

Domestic supply, especially with the return of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Equipment in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, coupled with the incremental release of production capacity in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and other regions. There is an increase in domestic supply. In the medium to long term, with the increase in supply of coal to ethylene glycol and the production of raw material ethylene, domestic supply is in an upward phase.

The dependence on domestic ethylene glycol imports has decreased

The dependence on imported ethylene glycol is gradually decreasing with the release of domestic production capacity. Recently, the explicit inventory data of ethylene glycol has been relatively low. On the one hand, this is because the port inventory does not include the hidden inventory of domestic production areas and factories. On the other hand, it is also because downstream manufacturers had sufficient stock at low prices in November, and the port has been affected by weather recently, resulting in delayed unloading due to port closures. With the gradual unloading and arrival of ocean going large ships, the explicit inventory is also expected to rebound.

Future expectations

The weak domestic supply and demand fundamentals of ethylene glycol have suppressed the upward potential of ethylene glycol prices. From a cost perspective, crude oil prices have been at a low level recently, and the support from the cost side is relatively insufficient. At present, although there is an expected increase in explicit inventory at the port, the absolute data is relatively low, which to some extent supports the price of ethylene glycol. In the short term, the fluctuation of ethylene glycol prices is mainly weak.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall domestic adipic acid market has declined this week, with a drop of over 1%. On November 25th, the average market price of adipic acid was 8400 yuan/ton. On November 28th, the average market price of adipic acid was 8300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.19%.

Negative leads to weak decline in adipic acid market

This week, the domestic adipic acid market continued to decline weakly. Mainly due to the lack of upward momentum in the cyclohexanone market caused by the upstream raw material pure benzene, and the sluggish demand for adipic acid procurement from end-users. In addition, the supply pressure of adipic acid has doubled, and negative factors have suppressed it. The weak downward trend of adipic acid market is the main reason, and the mainstream market price is 8200-8300 yuan/ton, with a weak downward trend.

An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in December, the bearish sentiment remains, and the adipic acid market will continue to weaken.

In November, the domestic phenol market rose more than fell. According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic phenol market price was 7537 yuan/ton on November 1st and 7787 yuan/ton on November 30th, an increase of 3.32%.

In the first half of the month, social inventory was low, import and domestic shipping arrivals were insufficient, spot supply was tight, trading contract costs were high, and there was a strong sentiment of pushing prices high. Under the operation of pushing prices upwards, the terminal was passive in replenishing essential goods, and many small orders were followed up with transactions. The downstream factories have insufficient purchasing power, and the supply strategy is to offer discounts for shipment.

In the latter half of the year, Qingdao Bay and Sinopec Mitsui Phenol Ketone Plant will be shut down for maintenance, and the situation of tight cargo is expected to worsen. As a result, traders’ intention to push up prices is expected to increase, and the focus is steadily moving upwards. In the market’s favorable situation, factory quotations have also been raised multiple times to help. As prices continue to rise and the end of the month approaches, the pressure on contract customers to ship is not significant, and the room for concessions is limited, resulting in a weak market ending.

Sinopec Huadong phenol is listed at a price of 7850 yuan/ton. Sinopec North China phenol is listed at a price of 7800-7850 yuan/ton. As of the 30th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:

In terms of supply, the inventory of Jiangyin phenol port is 10000 tons, including 3000 tons in Hengyang and 7000 tons in Huaxi. In terms of equipment, Changchun Chemical’s 480000 tons/year phenol ketone unit will be shut down for maintenance from October 10th to November 21st; Huizhou Zhongxin Phase I Phenol Ketone Plant will shut down on November 1st, expected to last for one month; Lihua Yiwei Yuan Phase I Phenol Ketone Plant will be shut down for maintenance from November 1st to 7th; The phenol ketone plant in Qingdao Bay will be shut down from November 18th to 24th; Sinopec Mitsui Phenol Ketone Plant will shut down from November 19th to 27th.

From the perspective of demand, terminal enterprises mainly focus on buying for essential needs, and are cautious in pursuing high prices, which constrains the demand side. The downstream bisphenol A spot market has remained lukewarm, with stable market offers and negotiations in the East China region at 7700-7800 yuan/ton. There is currently no significant news impact on the market.

Business Society predicts that the domestic phenol market will be narrow and weak in December. In December, all domestic phenol ketone plants have been restarted, and there is no clear news of shutdown or negative load reduction. Supply expectations have increased, and the import shipping situation can be focused on during the month. The overall supply increase may have a bearish constraint on the market. It is expected that the phenol market will weaken in December, and considering costs and profits, the decline is not significant.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 20th to 27th (as of 10:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2549 yuan/ton to 2578 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.14% during the period, a month on month increase of 5.42%, and a year-on-year increase of 6.07%. The domestic methanol market continues to operate strongly, with some companies continuing to sell at high prices and transactions remaining acceptable.

As of the close on November 25th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2501 for methanol futures opened at 2612 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2613 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2571 yuan/ton. It closed at 2583 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, with an increase of 0.81%. The trading volume was 739781 lots, the position was 682672 lots, and the daily increase was -62332 lots.

On the cost side, the overall supply and demand structure of the chemical coal market is still showing a loose trend. In addition, the inventory of thermal power plants remains high, and there is no possibility of large-scale coal hoarding in the short term. Even a small amount of rigid demand cannot drive a sustained strong rebound in coal prices, and the weak demand side has led to a continued stalemate and instability in the market. The impact of methanol cost is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream acetic acid: the demand for acetic acid will continue to increase; Downstream dimethyl ether: Increased demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream chloride: Increased demand for chloride; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand increases; Downstream formaldehyde: There is currently no plan to shut down the formaldehyde plant, and demand fluctuations are not significant. Most downstream products have increased their demand for methanol, which is influenced by favorable factors on the demand side.

On the supply side, the loss of equipment exceeds the recovery amount, and the utilization rate of production capacity decreases. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of November 26th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 344.00-345.00 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 121.00-122.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 424.00-425.00 euros/ton, down 2 euros/ton.

Future forecast: In the near future, attention should be paid to the domestic and international gas restrictions, the shutdown of multiple sets of olefin plants due to load reduction, and the impact of macro news. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will strengthen and consolidate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in late November, the domestic formic acid market remained stable with an upward trend of 85%. As of November 25th, the average price of formic acid was 2850 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.7% from 2775 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Raw material side: The raw material methanol is stable, moderate, and strong. Recently, some methanol enterprises have shut down their equipment for maintenance, resulting in more losses than recoveries and a decrease in capacity utilization. The favorable factors affecting the methanol supply side; In addition, some olefin plants still have plans to continue outsourcing methanol, and the supply and demand in the methanol market are still acceptable. Prices have been raised, but the increase is limited, which has limited support for formic acid.

Supply and demand side: Recently, the main manufacturers of formic acid have a high operating rate, and the market supply is loose. Formic acid downstream procurement on demand, with average enthusiasm. Both supply and demand sides have no favorable support for formic acid.

According to data analysts from Shengyi Society, there is currently sufficient supply of formic acid in the market, limited terminal demand, and no favorable factors. It is expected that the formic acid market will continue to operate steadily at a low level, and specific trends still need to be monitored based on market information.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 22, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 1981 yuan/ton, which is 0.13% lower than the reference average price of 1983 yuan/ton on November 18.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

This week, the domestic urea market price first suppressed and then rose, with a narrow adjustment in operation. As of November 22, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1780-1810 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1820 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1810 yuan/ton, in Hubei region it is around 1830 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong region it is around 1965 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

This week, the urea market has strong supply and weak demand. On the supply side, the urea market supply continued to increase this week, and there is currently a high inventory in the market. In terms of demand, downstream procurement is the main focus, with many low-priced transactions, and demand follow-up needs to be improved.

3、 Future forecast

The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the urea market in Shandong has seen a slight increase in recent days, while other regions are stabilizing. At present, the market supply is loose, the market transactions are still acceptable, and downstream buyers are cautious in following orders. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic urea market will mainly experience weak price consolidation and operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 18th, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4180 yuan/ton. In early November, the DMF market price showed a step down trend, and the problem of oversupply in the DMF market became apparent. Operators were cautious and cautious, lacking confidence in the future market. Upstream methanol prices remained stagnant and consolidated, with high inventory pressure, which limited the support for DMF production.

2、 Cause analysis

In terms of cost: After November, the upstream methanol market of DMF continued to fluctuate narrowly, and the overall market operated in a volatile manner. Downstream demand for methanol continued to rise, and there was still pressure on methanol inventory. In November, methanol plants were newly put into operation, with 2.8 million tons in Inner Mongolia and 250000 tons in Shanxi. The new production was reflected around the end of November. Currently, manufacturers are actively shipping, and terminal demand is weak, resulting in a lack of follow-up mentality in the methanol market where price cutting procurement is the main focus.

In terms of demand, DMF has a wide range of downstream applications, with PU accounting for 54%. It is widely used in polyurethane coatings and synthetic leather, with the electronics industry accounting for 20% and the pharmaceutical industry accounting for 11%. Currently, the DMF market has a relatively sufficient supply, but with the rapid development of the domestic electronics industry, it will drive an increase in demand for high-purity DMF. The overall DMF market is currently in a state of oversupply.

Competitive landscape: DMF production capacity is relatively concentrated, and domestic small capacity enterprises are gradually being eliminated. Currently, several well-known DMF enterprises in China have become the main force, and their competitive trend is mainly reflected in advanced production technology, stable product quality, etc. With the increase of environmental protection efforts, reducing pollutant emissions in the production process, improving resource utilization, and enhancing production efficiency, thereby enhancing market competitiveness.

In terms of inventory: DMF inventory remained relatively high in November, and enterprise installations began to operate one after another, resulting in an increase in market supply. Downstream demand did not meet expectations, with phased replenishment being the main focus. Demand performance was average, and there was pressure on enterprise inventory, with limited room for market price increases.

3、 Future forecast

DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the current average price of DMF in the market is around 4000-4100 yuan/ton. With the gradual operation of facilities, the market supply continues to increase, and downstream demand support is limited. Inventory remains at a high level, making it difficult to consume in a short period of time. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders. In the short term, the DMF market price trend will maintain a narrow and weak trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of aniline has been running steadily this week. On November 11th, the market price of aniline was 9500 yuan/ton, and on November 15th, the price was 9500 yuan/ton. There was no increase or decrease during the cycle, but it decreased by 25.49% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

This week, the aniline market has been consolidating and operating, with prices remaining stable. During the week, the upstream equipment load increased, the supply increased, and the downstream cautiously entered the market. The purchasing intensity weakened, and the on-site inventory trend increased, resulting in a weak overall market operation.

Pure benzene: Recently, the pure benzene market has fluctuated and fallen, weakening support for aniline. On November 11th, the average price of pure benzene was 7161 yuan/ton, and on November 15th, the average price of pure benzene was 7136 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.35% during the period.

3、 Future expectations

At present, the cost support in the aniline market is average, with major aniline factories operating at full capacity and Tianji equipment restarting, and the supply side being dominated by negative factors. It is expected that aniline will decline in the short term.