According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 14th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China was 6025.00 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of white carbon black remained stable, with a limited range of price fluctuations. Currently, the mainstream price is around 6000 yuan/ton.

This week, the market price of white carbon black has been stable, with the mainstream price around 6000 yuan/ton. The focus of negotiations is stable, with downstream procurement being the main focus, and the enthusiasm for stocking is average. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders, and the number of new orders is limited. The overall price of white carbon black has maintained its early trend.

Chemical Index: On August 13th, the chemical index stood at 874 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 37.57% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 46.15% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that the stable operation of the white carbon black market is the main focus in the short term.

The recent market situation of melamine is mainly stable. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 14th, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7050.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as last Tuesday (August 8th).

Supply and demand side: The production capacity utilization rate of the melamine industry is high, and the downstream demand side is average. The main demand for raw material procurement is rigid, and the market trading atmosphere is flat. The price of melamine is mainly stable. On the 14th, the mainstream factory price of enterprises in central China was around 7300-7500 yuan/ton.

Cost side: Recently, the market price of raw material urea has been running smoothly. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price of urea on August 11th was 2577.14, a decrease of 1.74% compared to August 1st (2622.86). Cost side has some support for the melamine market.

Melamine analysts from Business Society believe that current market transactions are mainly in demand, and the market atmosphere is average. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may be on the sidelines for consolidation and operation, and more attention needs to be paid to changes in raw material urea prices.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market has been fluctuating, with spot prices fluctuating. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 11th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10525 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.24% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: The ABS industry has recently experienced a high load, with a total operating rate of around 90%, which has increased compared to the previous period. The on-site supply of goods is abundant. There has been an increase in inventory, with an overall output of over 150000 tons. Supply side support for spot market weakened.

In terms of raw materials: At the beginning of this month, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials fell. The rise of the raw material acrylonitrile market has been hindered, with some areas experiencing a decline. The raw material price is acceptable, and the support for acrylonitrile is maintained; The rise in downstream construction positions increases the pressure on the supply end of acrylonitrile; Downstream industries are generally operating, and demand has not improved. It is expected that the price of acrylonitrile may stagnate and enter the consolidation market.

The price of butadiene continued to rise this week. During the week, crude oil prices continued to rise, and Sinopec raised its quotation to support the seller’s mentality. However, Luqing Petrochemical has increased its supply of goods for export, and there are also plans for downstream enterprises to sell raw materials. The news of increased supply has brought significant pressure on the market atmosphere, and the domestic butadiene market has improved.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the market price of styrene has recently declined. Recently, downstream demand has been poor, but costs are still relatively high. Under the tug of war between supply and demand, it is expected that the short-term styrene spot market will mainly experience a slight decline.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream factories, including the main terminal home appliance industry, have average enthusiasm for stocking. In addition, the downstream operating rate is still at a low level due to factors such as season and power restrictions. After the price increase of ABS, the acceptance level of manufacturers decreased, and the procurement operation was cautious, resulting in poor overall demand.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the upstream three materials of ABS have fluctuated, weakening support for the cost side of ABS. The petrochemical plant started construction with a narrow increase compared to the previous period, and there is an accumulation of market inventory. On the demand side, support is weak, and the overall pattern of weak and rigid demand is maintained. It is expected that the ABS market may enter a narrow consolidation market.

Since August, the melamine market has risen steadily. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 8th, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7050.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.55% compared to August 1st.

Supply and demand: At the beginning of the month, the capacity utilization rate of the melamine industry was about 64%, and the downstream just needed to purchase. The market trading atmosphere was general. The enterprises adjusted their quotations according to their own shipments. The market wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, and the melamine market was adjusted steadily.

Cost side: In August, the raw material urea market price first rose and then fell. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price of urea on August 7th was 2584.29, a decrease of 1.47% compared to August 1st (2622.86). At the beginning of the month, the cost side support was strong, supporting the market’s attitude of price appreciation. As urea prices declined, support for the melamine market gradually weakened.

Melamine analysts from Business Society believe that current cost support is weak, while supply and demand support is average. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may become weak and operate, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

This week (7.31-8.7), the market for dichloromethane has significantly increased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 7th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2600 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.33% from last Monday’s 2400 yuan/ton, basically erasing the previous week’s decline. The price of raw material methanol continues to rise slightly, while the cost center of dichloromethane has slightly rebounded; The expected pressure on the supply side has slightly increased, and downstream demand has some support. However, as the price of dichloromethane rises, some regions’ gas buying weakens, and prices will slightly decline in the future; The inventory in the Shandong region is low, and manufacturers’ quotations are high and firm, while the price of dichloromethane in the Shandong region is rising.

This week (7.31-8.7), some units have slightly increased after restarting, and the pressure on the dichloromethane supply side is expected to increase again in the later stage of the production of Jiuhong’s new unit.

This week (7.31-8.7), the price of raw material methanol slightly increased, and the cost center of dichloromethane increased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 7th, the spot price of methanol was 2330 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.19% from last Monday’s 2280 yuan/ton.

The inventory of enterprises in Shandong region remains low, and the supply of goods in the region is tight. At the beginning of the week, the shipment of enterprises was smooth, and the market was bullish. Merchants and downstream stocking were active, forming support for the price of dichloromethane; Currently in the off-season of air conditioning, the price of R32 has slightly decreased under the pressure of unloading, and the operation of the device has remained low. It only maintains weak support for dichloromethane, but the downstream pharmaceutical industry has increased demand, and industries such as lithium battery separators have stable operation, which has some support for dichloromethane.

Future Market Forecast: According to the methane chloride data analyst of Business Society, the supply side pressure of dichloromethane is expected to increase, but there is currently some support on the demand side. In addition, the cost side will continue to rise. Overall, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will consolidate at a high level in the short term.

O-Xylene price rises this week

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of August 4, the price of O-Xylene was 8600 yuan/ton, up 3.61% from the price of O-Xylene of 8300 yuan/ton on July 28 last weekend. The price of mixed xylene has increased, while the cost of ortho xylene has increased; The downstream market of phthalic anhydride rose in a volatile manner, the demand for ortho benzene was stable, the market of ortho benzene industry chain rose together, and the price of O-Xylene rose this week.

The market for raw material mixed xylene rose this week

According to the market analysis system of mixed xylene products in the Business Society, as of August 4th, the price of mixed xylene was 8220 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton or 1.61% compared to the price of 8090 yuan/ton on July 28th last weekend. Crude oil prices rose in shock, Naphtha and mixed xylene prices rose, raw material costs rose, and O-Xylene market gained momentum.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market fluctuates and rises

According to the market analysis system of phthalic anhydride products in the Business Society, as of August 4th, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 8550 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.03% compared to the previous weekend’s phthalic anhydride price of 8462.50 yuan/ton on July 28th. The market of phthalic anhydride is firm, the price of phthalic anhydride rises in shock, the price decline of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is bad for phthalic anhydride, the starting point of plasticizer enterprises is low, the demand for phthalic anhydride is weak, the support for the rise of phthalic anhydride from phthalic anhydride from phthalic anhydride from phthalic anhydride from phthalic anhydride from phthalic anhydride from phthalic anhydride from naphthalene is insufficient, and the power for the rise of O-Xylene is limited.

Future prospects

Analysts of O-Xylene data from the business agency believe that the price of Naphtha and mixed xylene will rise and the cost of raw materials for o-xylene will rise due to the rise of crude oil; The downstream demand is limited, the support for the price rise of phthalic anhydride is insufficient, and the rising power of O-Xylene is limited. In the future, the cost of ortho benzene will increase; The downstream demand for ortho benzene is average, and there is still upward support for ortho benzene in the future. It is expected that ortho benzene prices will stabilize after a slight increase in the future.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region fluctuated and increased in July. The price of calcium carbide increased from 2883.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2950.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.31%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 23.38% year-on-year.

From the supply side perspective, the factory prices of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in the northwest region fluctuated and increased in July.

Cost side: The price of blue charcoal has significantly decreased

In July, the price of upstream calcium carbide charcoal slightly increased, with a price of around 1100 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month. In the short term, the price of blue charcoal has stabilized at a low level, while the cost of calcium carbide is generally supported.

On the demand side: PVC market prices fluctuate and rise

The downstream PVC market price of calcium carbide fluctuated and increased in July. The market price of PVC has increased from 5505.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5796.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 5.30%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 14.45% year-on-year. PVC Spot market prices rose in shock. The overall market trading situation has improved, and downstream market order demand is improving.

Looking at the future market: In mid to early August, the calcium carbide market may slightly increase, with consolidation being the main focus. The prices of upstream raw materials such as blue charcoal have stabilized at a low level, while the cost support for calcium carbide is average. The downstream PVC market has slightly increased, and downstream demand is good. In the future, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate slightly in mid to early August, with consolidation being the main focus.

Aluminium fluoride prices dropped in July

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of July 31, the quotation of domestic Aluminium fluoride was 9650 yuan/ton, down 2.53% from the price of Aluminium fluoride of 9900 yuan/ton on July 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of raw materials fell, the cost of Aluminium fluoride fell, and downstream demand was weak. In July, the price of Aluminium fluoride fell in shock.

Weak and declining prices of raw material hydrofluoric acid

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 31, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 9566.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.94% compared to July 1, when the price of hydrofluoric acid was 9657.14 yuan. In the off-season of refrigerant, the demand for hydrofluoric acid is weak. In July, the price of hydrofluoric acid dropped sharply, the cost of Aluminium fluoride dropped, and the downward pressure on Aluminium fluoride increased.

Fluctuation and decline in fluorite prices in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 31, the price of fluorite was 3056.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.96% compared to the price of 3117.50 yuan/ton on July 1 at the beginning of the month. In the slack season of the market, the demand is weak. In July, the price of fluorite fell, the cost of Aluminium fluoride fell, and the downward pressure on Aluminium fluoride increased.

Aluminum prices fluctuated and fell in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 31, the price of aluminum ingots was 18376.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.93% compared to the aluminum price of 18550 yuan/ton on July 1 at the beginning of the month. In July, the aluminum price was weak and consolidated. In the summer, high temperature power was limited. Some electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Sichuan stopped production for maintenance. At the same time, more electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Yunnan resumed production. The overall electrolytic aluminum output rose, and the demand for Aluminium fluoride rose.

Market Overview and Forecast

Analysts of Aluminium fluoride industry from the business agency believe that: in July, the prices of hydrofluoric acid and fluorite fell, the cost of Aluminium fluoride raw materials fell, and the downward pressure on Aluminium fluoride increased; The output of electrolytic aluminum increased, the demand for Aluminium fluoride warmed up, and Aluminium fluoride was supported by growth. In the future, the demand for Aluminium fluoride will recover as the cost decreases, and the upward momentum of aluminum fluoride will increase the downward pressure. It is expected that the price of Aluminium fluoride will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of domestic liquid Caprolactam was 12250 yuan/ton on July 24, and the average price of domestic liquid Caprolactam was 12575 yuan/ton on July 28. The price of Caprolactam rose 2.65% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Caprolactam market prices rose this week. The price of raw material pure benzene continued to strengthen this week, with good cost support. Under cost pressure, the spot price of Caprolactam increases with the cost. The spot supply in the northern market is tight, and downstream customers follow up on demand, making procurement more cautious.

The price of raw material pure benzene has increased this week. On July 24th, the price of pure benzene was 7037 yuan/ton. On Friday (July 28th), the price of pure benzene was 7230 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.76% compared to last week and a decrease of 19.88% compared to the same period last year. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene rose to 7200 yuan/ton (with prices in Shandong and Hebei regions simultaneously increasing by 400 yuan/ton).

3、 Future Market Forecast

Caprolactam analysts from the business community believe that the price of raw material pure benzene has continued to rise recently. Affected by the cost boost, the market trend of Caprolactam has risen, and the terminal demand has followed up on demand. Under the support of cost, it is expected that the price of Caprolactam will continue to run high and strong in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic MTBE market is fluctuating and rising. From July 1st to 27th, the price of MTBE increased from 7087 yuan/ton to 7562 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.70% during the cycle, with a maximum amplitude of 7.23% and a year-on-year increase of 1.92%.

At the beginning of the month, the international crude oil market was supported, and traders actively increased their prices. Production enterprises repeatedly raised their factory quotes, with a total increase of 300-500 yuan/ton. However, the downstream acceptance capacity was average, and the MTBE market price immediately declined.

In mid month, the international crude oil market supported, and most manufacturers had a large supply of early orders. Therefore, the supply of goods was temporarily tight, and the MTBE market price immediately rose.

In the latter half of the month, Lihua Yiji Port was completed and turned into domestic sales, increasing domestic supply pressure. At the same time, the trend of the gasoline market was average, with poor terminal demand and a slight decrease in prices. After falling to a certain low point, there were a large number of transactions in the gasoline shipping list, combined with the increase in crude oil closing, terminal demand increased, and the MTBE market stopped falling and went up.

Trend Chart of MTBE Domestic Production Price Average of Business Society:

On the cost side, the crude oil market surged in July, and WTI crude oil reached its highest point in the past three months. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $82.74 per barrel, an increase of $1.67 or 2.0%. The oil market has been boosted by the expected tightening of supply and continued fermentation, as well as the rebound in demand. As of July 26th, the Federal Reserve announced a 25bp interest rate hike, coupled with a lower than expected decline in US crude oil inventories, resulting in profit taking in crude oil futures and pressure on prices.

On the demand side, in terms of gasoline, there may be room for international oil prices to decline. Under the continuous positive impact of the lack of news, the refined oil market in Shandong Province is gradually returning to the supply and demand level. The gasoline market is supported by strong demand in the summer, and downstream users purchase on demand. The market trading atmosphere is mild, and the MTBE demand side is biased towards positive factors.

On the enterprise side, the supply of MTBE is gradually increasing, with a bearish impact on the supply side.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on July 26th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $4.59/ton compared to the previous trading day, while FOB Singapore closed at $955.99-957.99/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $19/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $1224.99- $1225.49/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $19.42 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB Gulf price closed at $1073.16-1073.51 per ton (302.30-302.40 cents per gallon).

In the future market forecast, there will be an increase in supply, but the downstream gasoline market is bullish. MTBE analysts from the business agency believe that the domestic MTBE market may consolidate in the short term.