1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of caustic soda first fell and then rose in November, with an overall upward trend. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 2460 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 2580 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.88%, a decrease of 2.2% compared to the same period last year. On November 29th, the commodity index of light soda ash was 125.13, an increase of 2.05 points from yesterday, a decrease of 33.83% from the highest point of 189.10 points in the cycle (2021-11-07), and an increase of 98.15% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of soda ash has been running strong this month. Currently, pure alkali in East China is operating steadily, with a mainstream market price of around 2500-2800 yuan/ton for light pure alkali. The operation of caustic soda in North China is temporarily stable, and the mainstream market price for light caustic soda is around 2550-2700 yuan/ton. Currently, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers is around 380000 tons.

In terms of demand: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the spot price of glass is weak this month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of glass was 23.09 yuan/square meter, and at the end of the month, the average price was 21.67 yuan/square meter. During the month, the price decreased by 6.15%. From a regional perspective, the trading situation in the glass spot market in Shahe, North China is average, with a slight decrease in market prices, which is beneficial for enterprises to reduce inventory. Overall, inventory has decreased. The market trading situation in the East China region is relatively light, with downstream demand for goods and a slight decrease in enterprise inventory. The overall production and sales in the central region of China are still good, and the decrease in enterprise prices has stimulated downstream purchases, resulting in a rapid decline in factory inventory.

Business Society analysts believe that according to the Business Society’s product analysis system, the price of soda ash has remained strong this month. Recently, the production of soda ash has remained at around 84%, with a short-term reduction in production. Downstream purchases are mainly based on demand, and there is a supply-demand game between upstream and downstream. Overall, it is expected that the price of soda ash will continue to remain strong in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the focus of the domestic NMP market continued to shift downwards in November, with an increased decline. At the beginning of November, the average price of electronic grade NMP was 14733 yuan/ton. On November 29th, the average price was 13000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.76%.

2、 Analysis and Review

As of November 29th, the mainstream prices of NMP bulk water in different regions of China are as follows:

Region/ November 29th

East China region/ 12500-135000 yuan/ton

Central China region/ 13500-13500 yuan/ton

Southwest region/ 13000-135000 yuan/ton

In November, the domestic NMP market continued to decline, and as of the 29th, the mainstream retail price for electronic grade NMP in China was 12500-135000 yuan/ton. The price of raw material BDO has fluctuated and fallen, weakening cost support. The demand side of NMP remains weak, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Insufficient follow-up on the demand side, a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and a focus on just needs. The NMP factory on the production side remains stable, with a weak mentality and prices following the market trend. The market is still in a downward trend.

In November, the domestic BDO market stabilized first and then fell. As of November 29th, the average price of domestic BDO has dropped from 10157 yuan/ton to 9636 yuan/ton, with a 5.2% decline in prices during the cycle. Cost support has further weakened, leading to an increase in the decline in NMP.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to NMP analysts from Business Society, the downstream follow-up of NMP prices is slow, and the market’s positive signals are weak. Currently, NMP is close to the bottom, and there is limited room for further decline. It is expected that NMP prices will consolidate and operate at a low level in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong fell in November. At the beginning of the month, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5150.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5075.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.46%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.60%.

Upstream methanol situation: In November, the domestic methanol market was weak and consolidated, with weak coal prices and insufficient cost support. Although there was an expectation of a reduction in imports in December, overall imports remained at a high level, and supply side pressure remained. The total supply of methanol in the market is sufficient, and the downstream has entered the traditional off-season. For methanol, the main demand is for purchasing and the price is significantly reduced. Business Society Methanol Analyst predicts that the domestic methanol market is mainly weak and consolidating.

In recent times, the domestic methanol market has been mainly fluctuating downward, with poor cost support. Downstream demand remains strong, and analysts from Shengyishe Polyformaldehyde predict that prices may slightly decline.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from November 17th to November 24th, 2023, the domestic ex factory price of coal tar slightly increased, with a price of 4417.5 yuan/ton on the 24th and 4350 yuan/ton on the 17th, an increase of 1.55 yuan.

From the monthly K-bar chart of coal tar, it can be seen that after entering 2023, the coal tar market has experienced more decline and less increase, with significant increases and decreases from January to May, and relatively small fluctuations in June and July. On a monthly basis, the market saw a broad decline of 19.37% in January, followed by a brief 13% rebound in February. In March, prices fell sharply again by 15.2%, and in April, the decline continued to expand to 36.91%. In May, the market rebounded significantly by 32%. The market performance in June and July was relatively stable, but after entering August, the market fluctuated greatly, with overall gains and losses. From September to October, the market maintained a narrow range of volatility, with five consecutive weeks of decline in mid October and a slight increase this week.

Note: The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of price trend candlestick to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations.

Supply: The overall operating rate of coking enterprises has declined, and supply has contracted compared to the previous period

From 2022 to present, we can see from the operating rate curve of independent coking enterprises in China that the overall operating rate of coking enterprises has recently declined. With the rise of raw material coking coal prices this week, the overall cost of entering the furnace for coking enterprises is relatively high. Under the influence of profits, some enterprises have actively limited production. Jiao enterprises have started a second round of price hikes, but under the mentality of supply and demand competition, it is difficult to implement, and the supply of tar is tight compared to the previous period.

Demand: The deep processing market is weak, and the market is mainly wait-and-see

From the price list of the deep processing industry we monitored in November, it can be seen that the prices of related commodities in the domestic deep processing industry have fluctuated this week, and market demand support is slightly weak. After November, three rounds of auction prices have all declined, except for this week when tar auction prices in some regions have slightly increased due to the tight supply of tar, while prices in some regions have remained stable or failed to sell. However, the fatigue in the downstream market has not significantly changed, and the overall demand support in the market is still slightly insufficient. Overall, there will be significant resistance to further upward movement in the future market. It is expected that the market will remain stable in the short term, with slight fluctuations being the main focus. The price trend of deep processing related commodities still needs to be closely monitored in the future.

The price of plasticizer DOTP fluctuated and increased this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of November 24th, the price of DOTP was 11510 yuan/ton, a fluctuation increase of 1.86% compared to November 17th when the price of DOTP was 11300 yuan/ton. This week, the price of isooctanol has risen, PTA prices have fluctuated and fallen, and the cost impact, combined with the rise in plasticizer prices, has led to a volatile increase in DOTP prices this week.

PTA prices have fluctuated and fallen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the PTA price on November 24th was 5825.70 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 3.33% compared to the price of 6026.50 yuan/ton on November 17th. PTA devices have restarted more, PTA supply has increased, downstream polyester manufacturers have resumed production, PTA demand is average, crude oil prices have fluctuated and decreased, PTA costs have decreased, and PTA prices have weakened and fluctuated this week.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and increased this week. As of November 24th, the quoted price of isooctanol was 11380 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.89% compared to the quoted price of 11280 yuan/ton on November 17th. Isooctanol manufacturers are actively shipping, with low inventory and rising prices. Downstream plasticizer companies are increasing production, leading to a rebound in demand for isooctanol. As a result, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and risen this week.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that PTA prices have fluctuated and fallen this week, isooctanol prices have fluctuated and risen, and the cost of plasticizer DOTP has stabilized; The plasticizer market is generally rising, and the demand for plasticizer DOTP is rebounding. Overall, raw materials have stopped falling and risen, the plasticizer market has generally risen, and the demand for DOTP has rebounded. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOTP will fluctuate and rise in the future.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, sulfur prices in East China continued to rise in mid November. On November 20th, sulfur prices were at 1050 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.25% compared to 970 yuan/ton on November 11th, and an increase of 11.31% compared to the beginning of the month.

During the cycle, the sulfur market in East China was relatively strong and upward, mainly due to the increase in the construction of the terminal phosphate fertilizer market, and the increasing purchasing enthusiasm of downstream factories and traders. In addition, the operation of refinery units was weak, and the supply of goods was not sufficient. The downstream procurement atmosphere was good, and manufacturers’ shipments were smooth. The refinery quotation was firm and upward. As of the 20th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in Shandong refineries was around 1050-1080 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur ranges from 1020 to 1150 yuan/ton.

Downstream market of the industrial chain

Downstream sulfuric acid prices rose significantly in mid November, with an average domestic sulfuric acid price of 298 yuan/ton on November 20th, an increase of 10.37% compared to the price of 270 yuan/ton on November 11th. The maintenance of some enterprise equipment on site has led to a tightening of sulfuric acid supply, active procurement in the fertilizer industry, good demand performance, smooth shipment by acid companies, and a significant increase in the focus of transactions in the sulfuric acid market.

In mid November, the high level of monoammonium phosphate market remained stable, and the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate remained at 3466 yuan/ton during the cycle. The winter storage market follows up as needed, and the monoammonium phosphate factory executes pre received orders. The enterprise has sufficient waiting orders, and the prices of raw material phosphate ore and sulfur have increased. Cost support is good, and the monoammonium phosphate market is operating at a high price.

Future Market Forecast

Business Society sulfur analysts believe that the operation of sulfur refining plants is normal, there is no pressure on market supply, downstream purchasing is active, and demand support is positive. Manufacturers have an optimistic attitude and maintain active shipments. It is expected that the sulfur market will narrow down and rise in the future, and specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up in the future.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the East China region’s 1 # tin ingot market fluctuated and rose this week (11.10-11.17). The average market price last weekend was 210860 yuan/ton, and this weekend it was 212810 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.92%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have risen continuously for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, the price has dropped by 11.35% per month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has recently seen more declines and less gains.

In terms of the futures market, the overall trend of tin prices this week was somewhat volatile, with the overall trend mostly following the fluctuations of the macro market. On the supply side, the import of tin ore continues to decline, but the impact on domestic enterprises is relatively small. Currently, the operating rate of smelters is generally stable. However, with the increase of imported tin ingot sources, the overall supply of domestic tin ingots is relatively stable. In terms of demand, downstream performance is still weak, and the overall expectation of solder demand is still weak. Most consumer terminals maintain a wait-and-see attitude, actively go to the warehouse, and maintain the principle of replenishing raw materials according to demand. Overall, with limited changes in the supply and demand side of tin and no significant improvement in terminal demand expectations, it is expected that the tin ingot market will continue to operate steadily, with a focus on the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on the market in the near future.

On November 19th, the non-ferrous index stood at 1109 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.89% from the cycle’s highest point of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 82.70% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, there were five commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the 46th week of 2023 (11.13-11.17) commodity price rise and fall list, with silver (3.97%), copper (1.29%), and lead (1.15%) ranking among the top three commodities. There are a total of 15 products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with the top 3 products falling respectively being dysprosium metal (-3.69%), dysprosium iron alloy (-3.14%), and nickel (-3.00%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.96%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market maintained a slight decline this week (November 13-17). As of November 17, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 7592 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.26% compared to the beginning of the week.

The obvious negative sentiment of the US crude oil inventory accumulation continues to ferment, coupled with market concerns about the economic and energy demand prospects, causing international crude oil prices to fluctuate and decline. As of November 16th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $72.90 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $77.42 per barrel. However, the PTA market is favored by domestic and foreign macro atmosphere, and related commodities such as PX and ethylene glycol have seen significant increases, leading to a rebound in PTA prices. Superimposed by strong sea winds, ports in Beilun, Zhenhai, and other areas in Zhejiang Province have been closed due to strong winds, which may affect some logistics transportation. PTA prices have increased by 2.68% this week.

Downstream yarn factories are operating steadily, and overall sales are weak. Inventory pressure increases, inventory accumulation speed is faster, and there is a strong wait-and-see attitude towards polyester staple fibers. The purchasing intention decreases, and on-demand procurement is the main focus. In terms of price, some specifications have experienced a decline in prices, with the average price of pure polyester yarn in the Shandong region at 12650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.20% compared to the beginning of the week. The current textile industry has entered a seasonal off-season, with some end product inventory being high and terminal textile orders scarce. It is expected that inventory will increase to a certain extent, and it is inevitable to reduce production or promote sales.

Analysts from Business Society believe that driven by the strength of PTA, the atmosphere of the polyester staple fiber market has improved, and factories have an intention to increase prices. However, due to the weak demand side, the increase is weak. At the same time, a set of polyester short fiber maintenance device increased the load during the week, resulting in an increase in supply. Under the weak supply and demand situation, the price of polyester short fiber is still mainly weak in operation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market is slowly following up. From November 8th to 15th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price increased from 16183 yuan/ton to 16250 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.41% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 2.63%, and a year-on-year increase of 11.11%. The overall market quotation pace is slowly improving, and spot transactions are slowly following up. As prices rise, some shipments are willing to increase, and the market follow-up atmosphere has weakened, resulting in a slow overall push. The demand side is slowly following up, with some just needed orders still remaining and transactions. The overall market support is relatively obvious, and the market is digesting social inventory.

On the supply side, the 600000 ton/year device at the Shanghai MDI factory began maintenance on November 16th, with distillation shutdown for about two weeks, and synthesis maintenance until mid December. Chongqing MDI Factory’s 400000 ton/year device year-end storage and maintenance plan. In addition, there are rumors in the market that the Ningbo factory has maintenance plans in mid November. As well as the 80000 ton/year plant of Dongcao Ruian, due to the maintenance of the mother liquor plant in Japan, the output ratio has decreased, and the transportation of the mother liquor has been greatly affected, affecting the production of its Dongcao Ruian distillation unit. Overall, the domestic supply has significantly shrunk, while the foreign supply is expected to remain, and there may be a possibility of import supply filling. The supply side is influenced by favorable factors.

On the cost side, the raw material pure benzene, the domestic pure benzene market continues to be weak, and the crude oil futures market is weak, leading to a downward revision of the main enterprise listing. As of November 15th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shangshang Society is 7685.50 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: The domestic aniline market continues to rise, and transportation is limited in the north due to weather conditions. Currently, the inventory pressure of aniline factories is relatively low. As of November 15th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shangshang Society is 12725.00 yuan/ton. The cost of aggregating MDI is mixed.

On the demand side, the overall performance of the downstream building materials industry has declined, and the overall follow-up is not as good as in the early stage. However, the performance of the refrigerator and household appliances, formaldehyde free panels, and automotive industries is still good, and the market is slow to follow up, with limited driving force. The focus is on just following up. The demand for short-term aggregated MDI is mixed.

In the future market forecast, with the current situation of supply and maintenance shrinking, the overall market support still exists, but the downstream follow-up force is relatively average. Business Society’s aggregated MDI analysts expect that the domestic aggregated MDI market will be mainly organized in a narrow range.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market price has slightly increased this week. The sulfuric acid price has increased from 262.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2700.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 3.05%, and the weekend price has decreased by 26.23% year-on-year.

Upstream market slightly rises, while downstream procurement enthusiasm increases

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have slightly increased this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, with sulfur prices rising from 946.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 970.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.46%. Over the weekend, prices have decreased by 28.85% year-on-year. The upstream market has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream monoammonium phosphate market has seen a significant increase, with market prices rising from 3200.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3466.67 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 8.33%, and a year-on-year increase of 13.66% over the weekend. The downstream titanium dioxide market has stabilized at a high level, with a market price of 17300.00 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price increased by 8.58% year-on-year. The downstream market has significantly increased, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has increased.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

In mid to late November, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The downstream market for monoammonium phosphate has significantly increased, and downstream customers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. The upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, with good cost support. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the product trend is upward. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, and the sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate slightly.