In May, the price of metallic silicon slightly decreased and showed a weak and stable trend overall. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 30, 2024, the reference price for the domestic 441 # metallic silicon market was 13480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.32% from the beginning of the month and a decrease of 4.87% from the same period last year. The fundamental trend of metal silicon in May is an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, as the rainy season approaches and silicon factories across the country have to increase production, leading to a gradual increase in supply; Downstream also reduced procurement operations due to the decline in silicon prices, and coupled with the gradual feedback of downstream production loss pressure to upstream, the spot price of metal silicon weakened under the bearish supply and demand side.

Supply side

According to data from Baichuan Yingfu, as of May 23rd, the number of silicon metal furnaces in China has reached 345, with an overall start-up rate of 46.06%, an increase of 10 from last week and an increase of 44 from last month. The increase in the number of industrial silicon furnaces is mainly due to the approaching flood season, driven by the maintenance and resumption of production by manufacturers in the northwest, and the mutual increase and decrease in other regions.

In terms of inventory, as of May 24th, industrial silicon inventory slightly decreased last week, with social inventory of 386000 tons, an increase of 7000 tons from last week and an increase of 22000 tons from last month; This week, the inventory of industrial silicon factories was 106000 tons, which was basically unchanged from last week and increased by 18000 tons from last month. Downstream demand has decreased significantly, spot market transactions have weakened, some silicon factory orders have been delivered one after another, and most silicon factory inventories have shown a slight increase.

Demand side

In May, domestic polycrystalline silicon saw a slight decline. In May, polycrystalline silicon enterprises faced a loss making situation, with poor production activity and frequent maintenance and production reduction operations. In addition, polycrystalline silicon enterprises continued to increase inventory, and under the downward trend of prices, the loss making area of polycrystalline silicon enterprises further expanded. The procurement of raw material silicon powder decreased, making it unable to support industrial silicon prices.

In May, the overall domestic DMC market for organic silicon showed a slight downward trend, and the benefits brought by macro policies have not yet been transmitted to the industrial end. Downstream demand is still lukewarm, and organic silicon production is still in a loss making situation. Therefore, production enthusiasm is limited, and some enterprises maintain a negative production state. They mainly purchase industrial silicon in small quantities and multiple times as needed, making it difficult to bring incremental demand to industrial silicon.

The price of aluminum alloy slightly decreased in May. Recently, aluminum prices have shown strong performance, providing support for aluminum alloy prices. However, aluminum alloy processing costs are significantly under pressure, and the production willingness of enterprises is suppressed. The procurement of industrial silicon raw materials is mainly based on on-demand procurement.

Future Market Forecast

On the supply side, there was a slight increase in supply in May. Silicon factories expanded their operations due to the approaching flood season. Although silicon prices continued to decline and silicon factories actively weakened their operations, the overall supply still showed a growth trend; In terms of demand, the downstream of industrial silicon still faces significant pressure at present, and the entire polysilicon industry is facing loss pressure. Production reduction and maintenance operations continue, and demand for organic silicon and aluminum alloys is also weak to follow up. The market has not reversed, and downstream production pressure is negative feedback to industrial silicon. Overall, the supply and demand side of the metal silicon market in June may shift towards a trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with fundamentals bearish on silicon prices. Although macro positive factors have led to an upward trend in futures trading, there is not much stimulation for spot prices, and downstream demand has not improved. It is expected that silicon prices in June may first decline and then stabilize, and then fluctuate to build a bottom.

This week (5.24-5.29), the price of industrial grade calcium formate remained stable after falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 29th, the average price of industrial grade 98% calcium formate in China was 3440.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100.00 yuan/ton compared to May 22nd (reference price of calcium formate was 3540.00 yuan/ton).

Supply side:

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that the industrial grade 85% formic acid market experienced an overall decline in May. In the first half of the month, the price of raw material methanol in the market rose and cost support increased, but demand support was weak. Downstream buying was flat, and inquiries and purchases were mainly in demand. Manufacturers accumulated inventory to promote transactions, and the focus of negotiations in the formic acid market declined. In the second half of the month, the raw material methanol market surged and fell, and cost support weakened from strong to weak. The supply side has sufficient supply of goods, but the demand follow-up is limited, resulting in a bearish supply and demand side. Enterprises are actively selling at a profit margin, and the formic acid market has stabilized after a decline.

Overall:

Business Society calcium formate analysts believe that the current industrial grade calcium formate market is facing severe sales pressure, and the market situation is showing a trend of profit giving operation. Against the backdrop of weak cost support, it is expected that the calcium formate market will continue to experience weak consolidation in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the BOPA market prices have been running steadily this week. As of May 28th, the mainstream quoted price for 15 μ m BOPA composite film by domestic manufacturers and traders is around 17366 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from last week’s average price and a 0.57% decrease from the average price at the beginning of the month.

quotations analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of raw material PA6 has increased. The mainstream quoted price of PA6 by domestic producers and traders is around 14925.00 yuan/ton, which is 2.05% higher than the beginning of this month (14625.00 yuan/ton). The price of raw material PA6 has fluctuated and risen this week, with strong cost support.

In terms of supply: there is still a surplus in the inventory of membrane enterprises, and the pressure on the supply side is still there.

In terms of demand: Downstream procurement willingness is not high, and there is no significant improvement in the transaction atmosphere. Most orders are for essential stocking. Market demand has weak support for prices.

Future Market Forecast

The upstream raw material prices continue to rise, and the cost side gradually strengthens its support for the market; Downstream demand enterprises tend to have weak purchasing intentions, mostly replenishing goods for urgent needs, resulting in weak transactions; It is expected that BOPA prices will slightly increase in the near future.

This week, the lead market (5.20-5.27) showed a fluctuating trend, with the average domestic market price last week at 18540 yuan/ton and this week at 18415 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.67%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar indicates the magnitude of the rise and fall, and the overall market trend has been stable, moderate, and strong in recent times. The lead ingot market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

Macro: The latest meeting minutes released by the Federal Reserve convey a hawkish attitude, suggesting that the possibility of future interest rate hikes still exists, leading to a strong rebound in the US dollar index. On Friday night, the US dollar index closed down 0.27%, ending the previous four consecutive gains. The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting released this week show a change in market expectations for the Fed’s interest rate cut, after the decline in inflation had led to widespread market expectations for a rate cut to be implemented in September.

Supply: The supply at the mining end is still tight, with many primary lead enterprises undergoing maintenance recently. The production of primary lead enterprises is low, and the supply of lead ingots is tight; Recently, the raw material procurement situation of recycled lead enterprises has improved, and the operating situation has increased compared to the previous period. The supply of recycled lead has improved, and the supply of lead ingots has improved compared to the previous period, but it is still tight.

Demand: May is the seasonal off-season for battery companies, and they are still actively digesting existing inventory. Due to the high rise in raw material prices, battery companies are currently under significant cost pressure and operating at a low level.

Future outlook: The macro market performance has been weak in the near future, and lead prices have followed the downward trend of the overall market. The lead ingot market has been affected by multiple factors, and the supply has been tight recently. Under the boost of supply tightness, lead prices will continue to maintain a high and volatile trend in the short term. In the future, the focus will be on the macro impact on market sentiment.

Industry data:

On May 26th, the base metal index was 1370 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 15.22% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 113.40% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On May 26th, the non-ferrous index was 1250 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 18.73% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 105.93% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 21st week of 2024 (5.20-5.24), there were a total of 5 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. Among them, there was 1 commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase were antimony (5.57%), cobalt (4.59%), and zinc (1.76%). There are a total of 19 products with a month on month decline, and 2 products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 8% of the monitored products in this sector; The top three products with a decline were metal praseodymium (-6.51%), praseodymium oxide (-5.49%), and praseodymium neodymium alloy (-4.50%). The average increase and decrease this week is -1.64%.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of May 24th, the average price of alumina in the market was 3806 yuan/ton, and on May 17th, the average price of alumina in the market was 3800 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18% compared to last week.

In terms of cost

Although the policy for bauxite mining in Shanxi has been relaxed, the resumption of bauxite production is not optimistic, mainly due to the complex mining conditions in Shanxi. The instability of supply from overseas producers to two alumina plants in Queensland, Australia has intensified market concerns, further boosting the surge in alumina prices.

In terms of supply and demand

The alumina market has a good trading enthusiasm and an active trading atmosphere. Downstream enterprises actively pursue high replenishment, which has driven a significant increase in spot trading volume. This week, the spot supply in the Shanxi market continued to be tight, with tight spot supply and frequent transactions between intermediaries. The demand for physical electrolytic aluminum replenishment is urgent.

Future Market Forecast

At present, alumina futures continue to fluctuate at high levels, and there are still a large number of alumina orders waiting to be shipped to the delivery warehouse of the previous exchange, continuing to squeeze the physical supply of electrolytic aluminum. The high alumina production period is expected to continue, and the comprehensive resumption of domestic bauxite production will have an impact on the adjustment of alumina prices.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, on May 23rd, the price of organic silicon DMC was 13490 yuan/ton. On May 19th, the price of organic silicon DMC was referenced to 13550 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.44%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, it can be seen that this week (5.19-5.23), the domestic organic silicon DMC market as a whole showed a weak downward trend. During the week, the overall trading atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC market was relatively light. On the first two days of the week, the organic silicon DMC market was generally weak and consolidating. As of Wednesday, the price of organic silicon DMC offered by Shandong’s large factories was reduced by 150 yuan/ton, and the reference price for organic silicon DMC was around 13300 yuan/ton. Other factories and suppliers mainly maintain stable prices in the early stage. On May 23rd, the market price of organic silicon DMC was referenced at around 13300-13900 yuan/ton.

Upstream aspect: Recently, the domestic metal silicon market has been operating weakly, providing loose cost support for organic silicon DMC. On May 22nd, the reference price for silicon metal was 13480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.32% compared to May 1st (silicon metal price of 13660 yuan/ton).

Future analysis

At present, the overall performance of the organic silicon DMC market still shows strong and weak supply, and small price adjustments have limited stimulation for downstream buying attitudes. The downstream wait-and-see atmosphere is still strong, but the current organic silicon DMC price is at the bottom of the market. Although the demand side support is limited, the short-term market situation is limited. The organic silicon DMC data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market should mainly adjust and operate within a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

Recently (5.13-5.21), the market for dichloromethane rose first and then fell, with an overall slight upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 21st, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2460 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.03% from 2435 yuan/ton on the 13th, and a decrease of 1.99% from the high point of 2510 yuan/ton in the cycle. The raw material methanol and prices have significantly increased, while the price of liquid chlorine has slightly decreased, and the cost of dichloromethane continues to support; In the early stage, foreign trade orders from enterprises in Shandong region supported low inventory levels in the region. In the later stage, as downstream inventory increased and terminal and merchant replenishment actions weakened, the demand for dichloromethane weakened. As of May 21st, the outbound price of mainstream dichloromethane loose water in Shandong region is around 2420-2500 yuan/ton.

Recently (from May 13th to May 21st), some equipment loads have increased, and the overall production of methane chloride in China has slightly increased to around 7.3%.

Recently, the price of raw material methanol has significantly increased, while the price of liquid chlorine has slightly decreased, continuing to support the cost of dichloromethane. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 21st, the spot price of methanol was 2950 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.26% from 2700 yuan/ton on May 13th. As of May 21st, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around 300 yuan/ton, which is lower than the 500 yuan/ton in early May.

Downstream R 32 production has remained stable, with a small amount of accumulated inquiries for terminal raw material inventory. Currently, there is weak support for the demand for dichloromethane.

Market forecast: According to analysts from Business Society’s methane chloride data, the current terminal just needs weak support; The price of raw material methanol continues to support the cost of dichloromethane, and overall, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will mainly consolidate in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall domestic market for maleic anhydride has been declining recently. As of May 20th, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 7090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14% compared to 7100 yuan/ton on May 13th.

In terms of supply: Recently, unsaturated resin factories have been cautious in restocking, with a focus on just in demand procurement and limited support for the maleic anhydride market; With the announcement of the first bidding results by Wanhua, the main factories of maleic anhydride have gradually lowered their execution prices. At present, the supply of maleic anhydride has increased, and downstream enterprises are mostly adopting a wait-and-see attitude. As of May 20th, the ex factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6750 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of liquid anhydride is around 6300 yuan/ton.

Upstream aspect: Recently, the ex factory prices of hydrogenated benzene in the market have remained stable, while the spot market prices have slightly decreased. In terms of supply, hydrogenated benzene enterprises have started operating lower recently, and the supply of hydrogenated benzene is slightly tight. Enterprises have a strong attitude of price support, and the ex factory prices have remained stable recently. In terms of demand, downstream enterprises are affected by profits, and it is expected that the operating rate will decline in the near future. The market expects a decline in future demand, and currently, downstream enterprises have a strong mentality of price pressure.

Recently, the international crude oil market has fluctuated and risen, with upstream naphtha prices falling and n-butane prices slightly rising. As of May 20th, the price in Shandong was around 5350 yuan/ton.

Downstream aspect: Currently, the production of unsaturated resin is stable, with limited transactions. Downstream demand is average, and the main focus is on continuing essential procurement, with weak consolidation of unsaturated resin.

At present, the price monitoring of maleic anhydride is at a low to medium level in one year, a low to medium level in two years, and a low to medium level in three years. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of maleic anhydride in the past three years is 9170.35 yuan/ton, with a median value of 11893.34 yuan/ton, a minimum value of 6120.00 yuan/ton, and a maximum value of 17666.67 yuan/ton. The bottom price difference (lower than the lowest historical price difference in the past three years) is 970 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (lower than the highest historical price difference in the past three years) is -10576.67 yuan/ton.

Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analyst believes that downstream unsaturated resins currently have limited procurement of maleic anhydride; In addition, Wanhua Maleic Anhydride is gradually bidding for shipments, and the supply of Maleic Anhydride in the market has increased. It is expected that the Maleic Anhydride market will be mainly weak in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of caprolactam in China on May 17th was 12900 yuan/ton, which is 0.58% higher than the average market price of 12825 yuan/ton on May 13th.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market price of caprolactam is on the rise. The price of raw material pure benzene remains stable with minor fluctuations, and cost support is still acceptable. The downstream operating rate has increased, leading to a positive demand for raw materials and an increase in terminal demand. Some companies are planning maintenance for their caprolactam units, leading to a tightening of market supply. As of now, the settlement price of Sinopec caprolactam is 13450 yuan/ton, which is a high-quality liquid product.

Raw material pure benzene market. This week, the price of pure benzene has stabilized. On May 13th, the price of pure benzene was at 8742 yuan/ton, and on May 17th, it was at 8742 yuan/ton. The price has remained stable, increasing by 27.62% compared to the same period last year. This week, the price of Sinopec’s pure benzene is 8800 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions are synchronized).

Downstream PA6 market. Recently, the domestic PA6 market has been strong and volatile, with spot prices rising more than falling. The domestic polymerization plant has a large and stable load with small fluctuations, and the demand for stocking by end enterprises is relatively strong. As of May 17th, the reference price for domestic PA6 is 14687.5 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Caprolactam Analysts believe that the recent trend of caprolactam market is upward. The improvement in terminal demand, coupled with a decrease in market supply, has driven up the price of caprolactam. It is expected that the short-term market trend of caprolactam will continue to be strong.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 17th, the average quoted price of polyethylene glycol 400 by enterprises was 8225.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.60% compared to Monday’s price.

The price of polyethylene glycol in the market fluctuated slightly this week. Recently, the market price of raw material ethylene oxide has decreased, and cost support has become loose. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals and daily chemical products are mainly buying according to demand, and the market transaction atmosphere is average. Business owners have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and holders can flexibly adjust their quotations based on their own inventory situation.

Upstream ethylene oxide: On May 17th, the factory listing price of ethylene oxide in mainstream markets in various regions of China was lowered, and the ethylene oxide market in East China was executed at 6900 yuan/ton externally. Upstream ethylene oxide prices have fallen, weakening support for the polyethylene glycol market.

Upstream ethylene glycol: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price of ethylene glycol on May 16th was 4425.00, a decrease of 1.26% compared to May 1st (4481.67). Since May, the market price of ethylene glycol has slightly declined, showing weak support for the polyethylene glycol market.

The polyethylene glycol analyst from Shengyishe believes that the current market transactions are mainly based on demand, and the short-term cost side may dominate the market. It is expected that in the short term, the price trend of polyethylene glycol may follow the raw material ethylene oxide, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance