From March 11 to March 18, 2024, the antimony ingot market in East China operated weakly, with prices dropping 0.55% to 91000 yuan/ton this week.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the recent trend of the antimony ingot market is relatively weak.

This week’s European strategic small metal antimony price situation (unit: USD/ton)

Variety/ March 11th/ March 18th/ Rise and fall

European small metal antimony/ 12850./12850/-

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony has remained stable, with a price of $12850/ton as of March 18th, unchanged. Currently, the market is on the wait-and-see side.

Since the Spring Festival, the antimony ingot market has remained temporarily stable and stable, with a slight decline after January. In terms of supply, smelting enterprises generally resumed normal production after January, and the supply of antimony ingots remained basically unchanged compared to before the holiday. However, the mining side still maintains a tight pattern, which has affected the strong mentality of smelters to raise prices, and the market supply is slightly tight. In terms of demand, downstream industries such as antimony oxide have shown relatively stable trends in recent times. Some enterprises have plans to replenish their inventory after the holiday, but they still maintain their essential procurement. In the future, Business Society believes that the antimony ingot market is gradually returning to a normal trading atmosphere, and in the absence of significant changes in supply and demand, it will continue to maintain temporary stable operation in the near future.

The price trend of antimony oxide this week (unit: yuan/ton)

Variety/ March 11th/ March 18th/ Rise and fall

99.5% antimony trioxide/ 79500./79500/-

99.8% antimony trioxide/ 81500./81500/-

This week, the antimony oxide market remained temporarily stable, while the spot market remained weak after the Spring Festival. Downstream demand replenishment was maintained, and market prices were mainly affected by the stability of the antimony ingot market, with most remaining temporarily stable.

Industry data:

On March 17th, the base metal index was 1203 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 25.56% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 87.38% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On March 17th, the non-ferrous index was 1119 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.24% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 84.35% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 11th week of 2024 (3.11-3.15), there were a total of 9 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were copper (3.86%), nickel (2.47%), and cobalt (2.25%). There are a total of 11 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are metal praseodymium (-2.03%), neodymium oxide (-1.42%), and metal silicon (-1.41%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.2%.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market for refined and hydrogenated naphtha has continued to rise this week. As of March 18th, the mainstream ex factory price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha in China was 8341.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.09% from March 11th’s 8251.50 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 8200-8400 yuan/ton.

This week, the market for locally refined straight run naphtha continued to rise. As of March 18th, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined straight run naphtha was 8234.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.29% from March 11th’s 8129.00 yuan/ton price. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight run naphtha was around 8200 yuan/ton.

This week’s rise in international crude oil prices supported the naphtha market, with refineries actively pushing for gains. However, there was a lack of substantial positive news at the end, and market trading was mainly focused on the restructuring of local refineries. The market mentality was cautious.

Upstream: The international crude oil market fluctuated and rose this week, and the cycle began. The Federal Reserve issued hawkish signals, delaying interest rate cuts and suppressing market confidence; US crude oil inventories have risen for the sixth consecutive week, rising by 1.4 million barrels to 448.5 million barrels. Analysts expect an increase of 2.1 million barrels, putting pressure on crude oil prices. Supported by the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East in the later stage; In addition, the expected reduction in production by oil producing countries is also a major factor supporting oil prices, leading to an increase in international oil prices.

Downstream: According to the monitoring of Business Society, the toluene market has slightly increased, with high levels of toluene port inventory continuing, and supply pressure still remaining; The mixed xylene market has slightly increased, while the mixed xylene port inventory has slightly decreased, and supply pressure remains; The price trend of PX is stable, and the domestic supply of xylene is stable. The domestic operating rate of PX is maintained at over 80%.

Market forecast: The international crude oil market is fluctuating at a high level, with cost support in the naphtha market; However, currently there is a lack of significant positive news for the local refining naphtha terminal. Downstream demand is cautious in chasing higher prices, with a focus on on-demand procurement. It is expected that the local refining naphtha market may consolidate at a high level in the near future.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the vitamin market has remained relatively stable this week, with some varieties slightly rising, and the overall market is operating relatively strong.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, the vitamin C market has slightly increased this week, with mainstream quotes for feed grade vitamin C ranging from 24 to 26 yuan/kg. Boosted by news, the market atmosphere has improved, and some traders have raised their prices, resulting in more factory suspensions.

This week, the price of vitamin A has slightly increased. The mainstream price of feed grade vitamin A in the market is 85-87 yuan/kg, and the European market quote is 19-21 euros/kg. It is reported that BASF’s German factory plans to undergo maintenance for two months starting from the end of March. Market attention has increased, inquiries have been active, and traders have raised their prices.

This week, the price of vitamin E has slightly increased, and the current mainstream price in the VE market is between 66-70 yuan/ton. The European market quotation is 7-7.4 euros per kilogram. The increase in European quotations has boosted the domestic market. The factory has maintained a suspension of reporting, and traders are actively pushing for price increases, resulting in an improved transaction atmosphere.

Future Market Forecast

Vitamin analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that some vitamin markets have improved, but lack real order support and slow demand follow-up. If the positive news in the future is exhausted and prices continue to rise, there will be greater resistance. In the future, close attention will be paid to the production, sales, and market trends of enterprises.

According to the monitoring system of Shengyishe, on March 14th, the benchmark price of glycerol in Shengyishe was 4387.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.46% compared to the beginning of this month (4200.00 yuan/ton). At present, the reference price for industrial grade 99.5% glycerol in the domestic market is around 4300-4590/ton.

Raw material side: According to the monitoring system of Business Society, palm oil rose in the morning on March 14th. The opening price of Y2405 contract for palm oil is 7942 yuan/ton, with the latest quotation of 7976 yuan/ton, an increase of 122 yuan/ton, a maximum of 7982 yuan/ton, and a minimum of 7918 yuan/ton. Compared to the beginning of this month, it has increased by 5.08%.

The downstream epichlorohydrin market saw a decline in prices this week. According to the monitoring system of Shengyishe, as of March 14th, the benchmark price of epichlorohydrin in Shengyishe was 8075.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.92% compared to the beginning of this week (8150.00 yuan/ton). The market demand is light, and the purchasing sentiment is not positive.

Late stage forecast: According to the glycerol data analyst of Business Society, the domestic glycerol market demand is weak, and downstream rigid demand procurement is needed. It is expected that the market price of industrial grade 99.5% glycerol will operate steadily, with a reference price of about 4300-4590/ton. For more information, please pay attention to external news and market guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the average price of stearic acid 1840 this week was around 8510 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton compared to before the Spring Festival, with a growth rate of 1.67%. The price of imported stearic acid in Indonesia ranges from 9500 yuan/ton to 8200 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side: In early March, the palm oil market fluctuated and rose by more than 1%, with an average palm oil market price of 7842 yuan/ton. The estimate for Malaysian palm oil production in the external market has been lowered, with bullish factors still present. There is still room for an upward trend in the palm oil market in the future. Overall, the cost is relatively strong in the face of spot support.

Demand side: The PVC spot market prices continued to rise this week. The average market price of PVC is 5632 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of 0.42%. This week, the load rate of the PVC industry is higher than 8 floors, with an increase in PVC export orders. This week, the load rate of steel tire enterprises in the industry continued to increase, with a load rate of more than 7.8 floors in the semi steel tire industry and less than 7 floors in the full steel tire industry.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society believe that the upward trend in the upstream palm oil market this week has provided strong support for the cost side. The downstream PVC operating rate is at a high level, and the terminal steel tire industry operating rate has also increased, which is a favorable factor for the stearic acid market. Overall, the market for stearic acid is gradually heating up, and it is expected that the stearic acid market will operate steadily and strongly in the short term.

Recently (3.1-3.11), the market for dichloromethane has fluctuated and risen. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of March 11th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2240 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.99% from 2175 yuan/ton on the first day, and the low point in the cycle was 2155 yuan/ton. The price of raw material methanol fluctuates narrowly, while the price of liquid chlorine remains stable, with support for the cost of dichloromethane; The inventory levels of merchants and terminals in Shandong region are generally low, but inquiries are cautious; Some production enterprises have raised their factory prices due to relatively low inventory levels, resulting in a slight increase in merchant offers. As of March 11th, the factory price of mainstream dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong region is around 2230-2250 yuan/ton.

Recently (3.1-3.11), there has been a slight fluctuation in the domestic supply of methane chlorides, with an overall production rate of around 6.80%.

Recently (3.1-3.11), the price of raw material methanol has fluctuated narrowly, while the price of liquid chlorine has remained stable, and the cost of dichloromethane continues to support. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of March 11th, the spot price of methanol was 2730 yuan/ton, which is 0.33% higher than the 2740 yuan/ton on March 1st; The low point within the cycle is 2691 yuan/ton. As of March 11th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around 300 yuan/ton.

After the holiday, downstream production has gradually increased, with low levels of inventory for merchants and terminals. However, we are cautious in observing and inquiring about the future market, and mainly support the demand for dichloromethane.

Market forecast: Methane chloride data analysts from Business Society believe that although some companies currently have low inventory, terminal inquiries are cautious; The price of raw material methanol fluctuates narrowly, while the price of liquid chlorine remains stable in the short term. Overall, it is expected that the market for dichloromethane will mainly fluctuate in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of aniline has stabilized this week. On March 4th, the market price of aniline was 10537 yuan/ton. On March 8th, the price was 10537 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.09% from last week and 13.63% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

Pure benzene: Yesterday, discussions on the price increase of pure benzene in the East China market were positive, but the industry is concerned about the subsequent downstream maintenance situation, and the price increase space is limited. Overnight crude oil and styrene prices have risen, and sellers are optimistic about the future market. The willingness to ship has decreased, and it is expected that prices will fluctuate and rise today. On Friday (March 8th), the price of pure benzene was 8261 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.61% from last week and an increase of 13.67% from the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The domestic price of nitric acid has slightly decreased this week. On March 4th, the price was 1873 yuan/ton, and on March 8th, the price was 1840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.15% from last week and a decrease of 25.89% from the same period last year.

3、 Future expectations

The shipment situation of the aniline factory is average, while downstream factories are cautious and have low purchasing enthusiasm. It is expected that the aniline market will operate weakly.

In February, the domestic first tier sponge titanium market first rose and then stabilized. Large enterprises have made an upward adjustment of around 2000 yuan.

According to the data monitoring system of Shengyishe, as of February 28th, the benchmark price of first-class sponge titanium in Shengyishe was 54000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.85% compared to the beginning of this month (51500.00 yuan/ton).

In terms of cost:

In February, due to factors such as high cost and rising electricity prices, several production companies raised the price of sponge titanium. After the Spring Festival, the high titanium slag market started operating normally with sufficient inventory, but the high price of raw titanium ore put pressure on the production cost of high titanium slag; In addition, the shutdown of some slag plants has led to weak and stable market operation. In addition, the impact of imported titanium rich materials has led to weak operation of the high titanium slag market.

In terms of downstream demand:

After the Spring Festival, the market gradually recovered. The demand in the military industry market is stable, with a slight increase in demand for civilian products.

Post forecast:

According to the prediction of sponge titanium analysts from Business Society, the sponge titanium market will operate steadily in March due to factors such as the release of new market capacity, increased production, and high support for raw materials. More attention should be paid to market news guidelines.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of stearic acid 1840 in February was between 7850 yuan/ton and 9000 yuan/ton, with the mainstream price around 8500 yuan, an increase of 50 yuan per ton compared to before the Spring Festival, with a growth rate of 0.6%. The price of imported stearic acid in Indonesia ranges from 9500 yuan/ton to 8200 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side: Starting from February 1st, the Malaysian palm oil market has declined, with sluggish market transactions and a weak decline in the palm oil market. After the holiday, palm oil rose and spot prices followed suit. In February, the overall palm oil market oscillated and rose. After the holiday, stearic acid factories have gradually resumed work, with an industry load rate of around 4.5 floors. Overall, the cost is relatively strong in the face of spot support.

Demand side: The PVC spot market prices will remain stable with an increase after the year. At present, the spot market situation is average, and the trading situation is relatively light. The PVC industry is currently operating at a high level. At present, the on-site inventory is about 580000 tons, an increase of over 14% compared to before the holiday, indicating sufficient inventory.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In February, the price of stearic acid showed a fluctuating upward trend, and the demand for concentrated consumption of upstream oils and fats increased. The palm oil market will continue to remain strong, and the cost will face strong support from spot goods. However, imported goods are gradually entering the port, and there is ample inventory in the stearic acid market. The downstream PVC trading situation is relatively light, mainly focused on consumption and storage. Therefore, it is expected that the stearic acid market will remain stable in the short term.

Aluminum prices slightly rebounded at the end of the month

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market on February 29, 2024 was 18876.67 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices have steadily increased this week, up 160 yuan/ton from Monday’s market average price of 18716.67 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.85%.

Based on monthly data, the current price is close to the pre holiday (February 8th) aluminum price of 18860 yuan/ton%. In the long term, the current price is in the “M” type price state since the second half of 2023, and the price level has been in the upper middle level in the past year.

Overview of fundamentals this week

Supply side influencing factors

On the news side, the power outage incident at an aluminum plant in Inner Mongolia may affect production capacity, and actual production changes are limited; In the southwest direction, Yunnan has good precipitation, and the hydroelectric power generation may drive the resumption of a small amount of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in March. Yunnan’s early production reduction has been basically completed, and the risk of subsequent production reduction is relatively small. It is expected that Yunnan’s production will steadily increase slightly before the rainy season, with little variation.

Demand side influencing factors

After the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival), the downstream consumption gradually recovered, the auto and photovoltaic sectors started to work fairly well, and the construction sector started to recover at a low rate recently. The overall demand has improved.

Future Market Forecast

The traditional peak season for consumption is approaching, and downstream demand may improve. The production capacity and operating rate of aluminum profiles, aluminum cables, aluminum plates and strips, aluminum foils, primary aluminum alloys, and recycled aluminum alloys are gradually recovering with the resumption of production and work. The future spot trading is expected to improve from the current light trend. It is expected that aluminum prices will experience strong fluctuations in the short term.