This week (September 16-20, 2024), the adhesive short fiber market continued to maintain a stable trend, with manufacturers mainly fulfilling orders and prices remaining stable. The market price of the main raw material dissolving slurry is firm and stable, with cost support still remaining. There is no obvious sign of improvement in the “Golden Nine” market, and the demand in the terminal market is flat. Cotton mills mainly consume raw material inventory, and the atmosphere of observation in the market is strong. The overall flow rate of goods in the market is stable, and the market price of adhesive short fibers has not changed much. In the future, attention should be paid to the follow-up of new orders from downstream cotton mills.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of viscose staple fiber remained stable this week (September 16-20, 2024). As of September 20th, the domestic factory price for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13640 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

Cost side support still exists

The upstream raw material end main material dissolution slurry market is strong and stable. As of now, the price of domestic dissolution slurry is around 7800 yuan/ton, the price of outer broad-leaved slurry is around 960 US dollars/ton, and the price of coniferous slurry is around 1040 US dollars/ton. The cost side of the adhesive short fiber market is still supported by favorable factors.

Stable supply, low inventory

The supply of adhesive short fiber industry is at a high level, and most manufacturers have stable equipment operation. The on-site operating rate is at a high level, and the current daily operating rate of the industry is around 84.79%. The early parking and maintenance equipment in Xinjiang has not been restarted yet, and the overall market supply is high. The inventory levels of various adhesive short fiber manufacturers are low, and the on-site supply is slightly tight. The supply side provides some upward momentum for the market.

The demand has not shown significant improvement

Although it has entered the traditional peak season for textile production in September, there is no obvious sign of improvement in the textile terminal market. Downstream yarn manufacturers have insufficient new orders, making it difficult to increase their enthusiasm for raw material procurement. Manufacturers are holding on to signing orders for essential needs, and the new round of orders on site is expected to take about a month. The recovery of demand is not as expected.

Future forecast

The upstream main raw material market price of viscose staple fiber may remain high, and the supply in the market is relatively tight. However, the new round of signing orders in the downstream market has basically ended, and the peak season has arrived. There is an expectation of an increase in the operating rate of human cotton yarn factories, which will drive the consumption of viscose staple fiber. Therefore, it is expected that the demand for viscose staple fiber may increase in the later stage, but it is difficult for the demand side to improve significantly in the short term. Viscose staple fiber manufacturers mainly deliver orders, and business analysts predict that the focus of the domestic viscose staple fiber market will remain stable in the short term, with little price fluctuation. The price is expected to be in the range of 13600-13700 yuan/ton.

The phthalic anhydride market has fallen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 13th, the price of phthalic anhydride produced by phthalic anhydride was 7362.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.34% from the price of 7462.50 yuan/ton on September 6th. This week, the price of ortho xylene was quoted at 7400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton or 3.90% compared to last week. The cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased, and the phthalic anhydride market has declined. This week, the domestic price for ortho phthalic anhydride is 7200-7400 yuan/ton, while the domestic price for nano phthalic anhydride is 7100-7200 yuan/ton.

Supply side: tight supply of goods

Domestic phthalic anhydride plants operate at low loads, with frequent shutdowns of naphthalene phthalic anhydride equipment and low load operation of neighboring phthalic anhydride equipment. Phthalic anhydride manufacturers are experiencing a shortage of goods and queuing up for shipments, resulting in a tight supply of phthalic anhydride and increased upward pressure on its price.

The cost of raw material ortho benzene has decreased

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 13th, the price of ortho benzene was 7400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton or 3.90% from the price of ortho benzene on September 6th, which was 7700 yuan/ton; Compared to early September, the price of ortho benzene decreased by 500 yuan/ton, or 6.33%, from 7900 yuan/ton. In September, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride fell again, and the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride decreased. There is significant downward pressure on ortho phthalic anhydride.

Demand side: DOP market trend rebounds

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 13th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 8501.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.44% compared to the DOP price of 8463.75 yuan/ton on September 8th; Compared to September 1st at the beginning of the month, the DOP price dropped by 8726.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.58%. DOP prices rebounded and rose this week. The prices of raw materials continue to decline, the profit margin of plasticizer equipment expands, and the gross profit of downstream DOP products increases compared to August. Driven by profits, downstream plasticizer companies are expected to increase their operating rates, leading to an increase in demand for phthalic anhydride.

Future forecast

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene has dropped significantly, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased; In terms of supply, phthalic anhydride manufacturers are operating at low loads, resulting in a tight supply of phthalic anhydride; In terms of demand, the downstream DOP market has rebounded, DOP manufacturers have increased production, and the demand for phthalic anhydride is expected to rebound. It is expected that the neighboring phthalic anhydride market will stop falling and rebound in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of September 6th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China this week was 7833.33 yuan/ton. The price of cyclohexane remained stable this week, with slow overall market shipments and high inventory levels. Currently, downstream demand is weak, terminal demand is not as expected, and downstream demand is weak. Downstream purchases are mainly for essential needs, and businesses are adopting a cautious and wait-and-see attitude.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost, the fluctuation of upstream pure benzene prices is the main trend, with a weak decline. Crude oil prices have fallen, and buying gas has been stagnant. Recently, crude oil prices have continued to decline. According to industry insiders, the drop in oil prices to the lowest point of the year is mainly due to weak economic data, hindered exports, and other reasons.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that it is expected that the market price of cyclohexane will remain weak and stable in the short term, with insufficient cost support and passive downstream purchasing.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China declined in August. As of August 30th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 10800.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -4.42% compared to the beginning of this month (11300.00 yuan/ton).

Raw material side: The price of raw material sulfuric acid continues to rise and only falls slightly towards the end of the month. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, the national department will carry out renovation of fluorite mines in the near future, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. In addition, the high temperature and rainy weather in the southern region have increased the difficulty of operating fluorite mines, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the decline in fluorite prices is somewhat restricted. Some domestic enterprises’ facilities for hydrofluoric acid are still shut down and waiting for the market, resulting in limited release of hydrofluoric acid production, low industry profits, and increased losses. Overall, there is still pressure on production costs for enterprises, and the hydrogen fluoride market is weak and declining. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of August 30th, the benchmark price of sulfuric acid in Shengyi Society was 340.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 30.77% compared to the beginning of this month (260.00 yuan/ton).

On the demand side: The downstream refrigerant market production demand is weakening, and air conditioning companies are entering the annual maintenance season. In addition, with the recent continuous rainy weather, refrigerant companies have poor stocking conditions and are not actively purchasing upstream products. Price cutting procurement, urgent need for replenishment.

Market forecast: In the near future, upstream sulfuric acid prices will continue to rise, and there will be significant pressure on the production cost of hydrofluoric acid. The downstream refrigerant industry has entered the off-season with weak demand, which has weakened the enthusiasm for purchasing hydrofluoric acid. It is expected that the price of hydrofluoric acid will remain weak and stable in the later period.

Isopropanol

Latest price: On August 27th, the average market price was 7590.00 yuan/ton.

Analysis points: On August 27th, the focus of the isopropanol market shifted downwards. In terms of upstream acetone raw materials, there is significant supply pressure, leading to a decline in market quotes. Affected the mentality of the isopropanol market, coupled with insufficient downstream demand follow-up, the overall trading performance of the market is poor, and the focus of on-site negotiations is still low, resulting in cautious actual market transactions. At present, the reference price in Shandong region is around 7400-7500 yuan/ton, and the reference price in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is around 7600 yuan/ton. The reference price of isopropanol in southern China is around 7700-7800 yuan/ton.

It is expected that the isopropanol market will remain cautious in the short term, with a weak and stable operation.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 11833 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 11766/ton, a decrease of 0.56% in price.

Domestic activated carbon manufacturers have stable quotes this week, with some manufacturers lowering their quotes. The market supply is sufficient, and the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12500 yuan/ton. Downstream transactions are weak, and we will focus on market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in applications such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially for gold charcoal, which receives a lot of inquiries from the African market; Fruit shell charcoal can be shipped smoothly from low to medium index sources. There is a recent rebound trend in imported carbide materials, and the industry should pay more attention to it.

Prediction: The activated carbon market is underperforming, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week was 20700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.85% compared to the same period last year. On August 15th, the bromine commodity index was 72.63, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 70.38% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 23.27% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine has remained stable, with prices in the Shandong region stabilizing. The mainstream market price is around 20000-21000 yuan/ton, and the overall inventory in the region is stable. Domestic bromine production is also stable. The production and demand for downstream flame retardants of bromine are generally average, and the demand for agriculture and intermediates is also average. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have been consolidating, with an average market price of 1310 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 1345 yuan/ton over the weekend. The price has increased by 2.67%, which is 31.01% higher than the same period last year. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain weak in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to consolidate. Downstream flame retardant production is average, and demand for agriculture and intermediates is moderate. Demand is mainly driven by on-demand procurement. The overall supply-demand game predicts that bromine prices may continue to consolidate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash remained stable and slightly decreased this week. As of August 12th, the average market price of soda ash was 1820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.88% compared to the price of 1874 yuan/ton on August 5th, and a decrease of 6.95% compared to the previous period.

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the soda ash market has been consolidating and declining this week. On the supply side, the utilization rate of soda ash production capacity has slightly decreased this week, but soda ash production remains relatively high; On the demand side, the terminal market situation is average, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high. The main focus is on cautious observation, and market trading is limited. Under the supply-demand game, the soda ash market continues to operate weakly. As of August 12th, the price of soda ash in East China has decreased, with mainstream market prices for light soda ash ranging from 1750 to 2000 yuan/ton; The price of soda ash in central China is relatively low, with mainstream market prices for light soda ash ranging from 1650-1850 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the glass price market is operating steadily, with an average market price of 17.28 yuan/square meter as of August 12th, an increase of 0.23% compared to the average market price of 17.24 yuan/square meter on August 5th. The glass market continues to operate at a high level, with weak downstream demand. However, market news suggests that some production lines are expected to undergo cold repairs, leading to a slight rebound in glass prices.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 32nd week of 2024 (8.5-8.9), there were 0 products that rose, 3 products that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing a decline are baking soda (-1.13%), PVC (-0.44%), and caustic soda flakes (-0.10%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.28%.

Future forecast: Currently, the operating rate of soda ash plants is relatively high, and spot alkali plants are actively stocking up. However, downstream demand is average, and they are mostly seeking low-priced purchases. Soda ash negotiations and shipments have a low transaction focus, with the demand side occupying the dominant low position. Overall, it is expected that soda ash will operate weakly and steadily in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 5th to 9th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 8828 yuan/ton to 8778 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.57% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 22.41%. Recently, some of the pre maintenance equipment has been restarted and operated at a reduced load, resulting in weakened supply side support. Although the downstream industry has also seen an increase in load, there is still pressure on supply and demand within the market. Industry players have a bearish attitude towards purchasing and selling, and negotiations are underway to offer discounts on spot orders. As a result, the domestic BDO market continues to decline.

On the supply side, the supply of goods in the market has increased, but the support on the supply side has weakened. The favorable factors for BDO supply have weakened.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The calcium carbide market is in a stage of oversupply. Due to different operating loads of enterprises and regional differences in inventory, some enterprises have always had high inventory levels. In order to promote shipment, the factory price has been lowered. Raw material methanol: The methanol market is operating weakly. As of 10:00 am on August 2nd, the domestic price of methanol in Taicang is 2460 yuan/ton. The BDO cost side is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, the downstream PTMEG and PBAT industries have increased, while the load of PBT, TPU and other industries has declined. The overall demand side has increased the amount of raw material digestion, but the demand increment is not as high as the supply increment, and the supply and demand pressure still exists. The main terminal spandex industry is experiencing a downturn, while most other downstream industries are in a loss making state, leading to strong bargaining sentiment towards raw materials. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.

In the future market forecast, with the restart of maintenance equipment in the early stage and the expected production of new industries and new production capacity, the supply side support is weak. The overall load of downstream industries has increased, leading to an increase in raw material digestion, but the demand increment is not as high as the supply. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market will continue to operate weakly.

In July 2024, the trend of the upstream raw material caprolactam market for nylon filament was not good, and the downstream purchasing willingness was not strong. The support from both the cost and demand sides was weak, and the inventory level in the market increased. Some nylon filament manufacturers operated under reduced load, resulting in a downward trend in nylon filament market prices.

Market price trend

In mid to early July, due to the continuous decrease in the weekly settlement price of Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam, the market for PA6 sliced high-speed spinning slices experienced a significant decline, and there was a lack of favorable support on the cost side. In addition, the end market was in the off-season of demand, and downstream manufacturers were not enthusiastic about purchasing, so they restocked on demand. The demand side performance was poor, and the speed of on-site shipment slowed down. Under the dual negative factors, the market price of nylon filament continued to decline. Entering the latter half of the year, there has been little change in the market prices of raw materials, while the cost side support is relatively stable. Downstream enterprises mostly maintain sporadic rigid demand orders, and the trading activity in the market is average. The nylon filament market prices are operating steadily.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price trend of nylon filament decreased in July. As of July 31, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 18640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 460 yuan/ton or 2.41% from the beginning of the month. Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 16275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton or 2.40% from the beginning of the month. The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is reported at 19725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton or 1.99% from the beginning of the month.

Weak decline in raw materials

In terms of cost, the cost center of gravity continued to decline during the month, and the settlement price of Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam fell significantly, with a monthly decrease of 3.78%. The market price of PA6 high-speed spun slices has significantly declined, and the market price of raw materials has dropped significantly, with a monthly decline of 1.36%, and there is a lack of cost support.

Supply demand: In July, the overall supply of nylon filament market increased narrowly. During the month, most of the nylon filament market facilities were operating stably, with some manufacturers reducing their facility loads due to increased inventory. However, 50000 tons/year nylon filament facilities were gradually put into operation in Hubei at the beginning of the month, resulting in an overall increase in on-site supply. At present, the daily production rate of nylon filament market is around 8.4%. It is difficult to find favorable support from the demand side, and the speed of on-site trading has slowed down. The trading activity is average, and the market is seeing a warming atmosphere.

Future forecast

In terms of raw material caprolactam, the bottom support for caprolactam prices on the cost side is relatively stable, and the supply of caprolactam on site may remain relatively normal. Downstream polymerization factories urgently need to purchase, and the trading atmosphere is still good. It is expected that the caprolactam market will mainly consolidate next month; In terms of PA6 slicing, the cost side support is average, and downstream markets are cautious about slicing purchases. The demand is urgent to follow up, and the overall operating level of the PA6 slicing market is high. It is expected that the PA6 slicing market will continue to decline next month. Therefore, it is expected that the cost support for nylon filament will be insufficient next month.

At present, the overall operating rate of the nylon filament market is relatively high, and the on-site supply is relatively sufficient. However, some manufacturers have poor shipments, and coupled with the hot weather, some manufacturers have plans to reduce their equipment load in the later stage. Therefore, it is expected that the market supply will slightly decrease next month.

In August, the downstream market was still in a low season of demand, with limited procurement of raw materials and insufficient support from the demand side. It is expected that downstream nylon filament manufacturers will continue to follow up as needed next month.

Overall, the cost side caprolactam market is expected to remain relatively stable, while the PA6 chip market may continue to be weak. The cost side support for nylon filament is weak, and the demand side will continue to be weak. Downstream manufacturers may still purchase on demand. Business analysts predict that the nylon filament market in August will follow the weak trend of raw material consolidation, and market prices will mainly decline narrowly.