According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 5th to 9th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 8828 yuan/ton to 8778 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.57% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 22.41%. Recently, some of the pre maintenance equipment has been restarted and operated at a reduced load, resulting in weakened supply side support. Although the downstream industry has also seen an increase in load, there is still pressure on supply and demand within the market. Industry players have a bearish attitude towards purchasing and selling, and negotiations are underway to offer discounts on spot orders. As a result, the domestic BDO market continues to decline.

On the supply side, the supply of goods in the market has increased, but the support on the supply side has weakened. The favorable factors for BDO supply have weakened.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The calcium carbide market is in a stage of oversupply. Due to different operating loads of enterprises and regional differences in inventory, some enterprises have always had high inventory levels. In order to promote shipment, the factory price has been lowered. Raw material methanol: The methanol market is operating weakly. As of 10:00 am on August 2nd, the domestic price of methanol in Taicang is 2460 yuan/ton. The BDO cost side is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, the downstream PTMEG and PBAT industries have increased, while the load of PBT, TPU and other industries has declined. The overall demand side has increased the amount of raw material digestion, but the demand increment is not as high as the supply increment, and the supply and demand pressure still exists. The main terminal spandex industry is experiencing a downturn, while most other downstream industries are in a loss making state, leading to strong bargaining sentiment towards raw materials. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.

In the future market forecast, with the restart of maintenance equipment in the early stage and the expected production of new industries and new production capacity, the supply side support is weak. The overall load of downstream industries has increased, leading to an increase in raw material digestion, but the demand increment is not as high as the supply. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market will continue to operate weakly.

In July 2024, the trend of the upstream raw material caprolactam market for nylon filament was not good, and the downstream purchasing willingness was not strong. The support from both the cost and demand sides was weak, and the inventory level in the market increased. Some nylon filament manufacturers operated under reduced load, resulting in a downward trend in nylon filament market prices.

Market price trend

In mid to early July, due to the continuous decrease in the weekly settlement price of Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam, the market for PA6 sliced high-speed spinning slices experienced a significant decline, and there was a lack of favorable support on the cost side. In addition, the end market was in the off-season of demand, and downstream manufacturers were not enthusiastic about purchasing, so they restocked on demand. The demand side performance was poor, and the speed of on-site shipment slowed down. Under the dual negative factors, the market price of nylon filament continued to decline. Entering the latter half of the year, there has been little change in the market prices of raw materials, while the cost side support is relatively stable. Downstream enterprises mostly maintain sporadic rigid demand orders, and the trading activity in the market is average. The nylon filament market prices are operating steadily.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price trend of nylon filament decreased in July. As of July 31, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 18640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 460 yuan/ton or 2.41% from the beginning of the month. Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 16275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton or 2.40% from the beginning of the month. The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is reported at 19725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton or 1.99% from the beginning of the month.

Weak decline in raw materials

In terms of cost, the cost center of gravity continued to decline during the month, and the settlement price of Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam fell significantly, with a monthly decrease of 3.78%. The market price of PA6 high-speed spun slices has significantly declined, and the market price of raw materials has dropped significantly, with a monthly decline of 1.36%, and there is a lack of cost support.

Supply demand: In July, the overall supply of nylon filament market increased narrowly. During the month, most of the nylon filament market facilities were operating stably, with some manufacturers reducing their facility loads due to increased inventory. However, 50000 tons/year nylon filament facilities were gradually put into operation in Hubei at the beginning of the month, resulting in an overall increase in on-site supply. At present, the daily production rate of nylon filament market is around 8.4%. It is difficult to find favorable support from the demand side, and the speed of on-site trading has slowed down. The trading activity is average, and the market is seeing a warming atmosphere.

Future forecast

In terms of raw material caprolactam, the bottom support for caprolactam prices on the cost side is relatively stable, and the supply of caprolactam on site may remain relatively normal. Downstream polymerization factories urgently need to purchase, and the trading atmosphere is still good. It is expected that the caprolactam market will mainly consolidate next month; In terms of PA6 slicing, the cost side support is average, and downstream markets are cautious about slicing purchases. The demand is urgent to follow up, and the overall operating level of the PA6 slicing market is high. It is expected that the PA6 slicing market will continue to decline next month. Therefore, it is expected that the cost support for nylon filament will be insufficient next month.

At present, the overall operating rate of the nylon filament market is relatively high, and the on-site supply is relatively sufficient. However, some manufacturers have poor shipments, and coupled with the hot weather, some manufacturers have plans to reduce their equipment load in the later stage. Therefore, it is expected that the market supply will slightly decrease next month.

In August, the downstream market was still in a low season of demand, with limited procurement of raw materials and insufficient support from the demand side. It is expected that downstream nylon filament manufacturers will continue to follow up as needed next month.

Overall, the cost side caprolactam market is expected to remain relatively stable, while the PA6 chip market may continue to be weak. The cost side support for nylon filament is weak, and the demand side will continue to be weak. Downstream manufacturers may still purchase on demand. Business analysts predict that the nylon filament market in August will follow the weak trend of raw material consolidation, and market prices will mainly decline narrowly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 30th, the domestic market price of 85% formic acid was 2725 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.83% from 2675 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

After a month of stable operation, the formic acid market saw a price increase due to the reduction in production by mainstream enterprises and a decrease in on-site supply.

Raw material side: The methanol plant for raw materials will undergo maintenance and restart next week, with sufficient inventory and mixed positive and negative factors, which will provide limited support for the upward trend of formic acid market prices.

Supply and demand side: Mainstream manufacturers are parking, and the spot quantity is average, which is favorable for the rise in formic acid prices. Downstream replenishment is basically on demand, with no significant improvement and no positive support.

The formic acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there is positive support on the supply side of formic acid, but the enthusiasm on the demand side is not high. It is expected that the formic acid market will mainly operate stably, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has been consolidating this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 20180 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 20100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.4% and an increase of 3.61% compared to the same period last year. On July 28th, the bromine commodity index was 70.53, unchanged from yesterday, down 71.23% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and up 19.70% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine has been running weakly, with prices in Shandong region running weakly. The mainstream market price is around 19500-20500 yuan/ton, and the overall supply is stable with sufficient supply. The production and demand for downstream flame retardants of bromine are generally average, and the demand for agriculture and intermediates is also average. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have remained stable, with an average market price of 1260 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 1265 yuan/ton over the weekend. The price has increased by 0.4%, which is 48.24% higher than the same period last year. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain weak in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to consolidate. Downstream flame retardant production is average, and demand for agriculture and intermediates is moderate. Demand is mainly driven by on-demand procurement. The overall supply-demand game predicts that bromine prices may continue to consolidate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 19th, the average price quoted by epoxy chloropropane enterprises was 7875.00 yuan/ton, which is basically the same as Monday’s price.

This week, the market for epichlorohydrin remained strong and stable. This week, the price of raw material liquid chlorine has been running weakly, while the price of raw material propylene has fluctuated narrowly. The price of raw material glycerol has been steadily rising, and cost pressures still exist. The capacity utilization rate of the supply side industry has slightly increased, still below 50%. Manufacturers mainly deliver orders, and the supply side has a no pressure and price mentality. The downstream is cautious about following up on high-end prices. The focus of negotiations in the epoxy chloropropane market is becoming more stable, and market transactions are mainly driven by demand.

Raw material propylene:

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, on July 18th, the reference price of propylene was 7175.75, an increase of 0.6% compared to July 1st (7133.25). Recently, the price of raw material propylene has been fluctuating and consolidating, with cost support maintained.

Market forecast:

Short term costs and supply side support may continue, with downstream small orders mainly requiring follow-up. The market has a strong wait-and-see attitude, and it is expected that the oxygen chloropropane market will operate steadily in the short term. More attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

This week, the acrylic acid market has remained stable with some gains. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 12th, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 6575.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.38% compared to Monday’s price.

Cost aspect:

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, since July, the price of raw material propylene has fluctuated and stabilized, showing an upward trend in the past week, which has strengthened support for the acrylic acid market.

Supply and demand side:

Recently, some devices have been undergoing maintenance, leading to a decline in industry capacity utilization and a decrease in market supply, which has supported some companies to raise prices. Downstream inquiries and procurement are mainly being followed up on urgent needs, and distributors are shipping according to market conditions. The focus of negotiations in the acrylic acid market is stable with some growth.

Market forecast:

The acrylic acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that short-term costs and supply support may continue, and demand performance may be average. The market is mainly driven by rigid demand for transactions, and it is expected that the acrylic acid market will remain stable in the short term, with a wait-and-see approach. More attention should be paid to market news guidance.

According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, starting from July, terminal demand was average, and the hydrogen peroxide market declined. On July 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 900 yuan/ton. On July 8th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 896 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.37%.

The terminal demand is generally dominated by a decline in the hydrogen peroxide market

Since July, the market in the terminal paper industry has been average, with manufacturers purchasing average amounts of hydrogen peroxide. The hydrogen peroxide market has continued to fluctuate and decline, with an overall quotation of 850-960 yuan/ton. Among them, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong region is about 900 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 50 yuan/ton. The average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Hebei region is 850 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 20 yuan/ton. The average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Anhui region is about 960 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 20 yuan/ton.

Chemical analysts from Business Society believe that in mid July, there will be little change in terminal demand for hydrogen peroxide, and the hydrogen peroxide market will continue to weaken in the future.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this month was 11833 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of activated carbon was 11766 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.56%.

In June, domestic manufacturers of activated carbon offered stable prices, with some prices falling. The market procurement atmosphere was lukewarm, with inquiries being the main focus. The factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranges from 9500 to 12500 yuan/ton, and downstream purchases are mainly in demand. The focus is on post holiday market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in areas such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially gold charcoal, which receives more inquiries from the African market; The supply of fruit shell charcoal with medium to low indicators is smoother. There is a recent rebound in imported carbonized materials, and the industry can pay more attention to it.

Prediction: The transaction volume in the activated carbon market is light, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of aniline has slightly decreased this week. On June 3rd, the market price of aniline was 12142 yuan/ton, and on June 7th, it was 12118 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 0.197% compared to last week and increased by 19.32% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

Pure benzene: Yesterday, the negotiation atmosphere for pure benzene in East China was flat, with contract transactions being the main focus. Some refineries in Shandong have voluntarily lowered their shipments, while some refineries are sticking to bottom prices to sell their goods. Several factories auctioned off, and the transaction volume continued to shrink. Crude oil rebounded, and spot pure benzene fluctuated around 9280 yuan/ton in the night trading. It is expected that pure benzene in East China will consolidate at a high level in the morning. On Friday (June 7th), the price of pure benzene was 9292 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.88% from last week and 42.76% from the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The domestic price of nitric acid has slightly decreased this week. On June 3rd, the price was 1830 yuan/ton, and on June 7th, the price was 1807 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.25% from last week and 11.11% from the same period last year.

3、 Future expectations

Yesterday, the shipment of aniline from the factory was still acceptable, and downstream demand was mainly maintained. Currently, the aniline market lacks upward momentum, and it is expected that aniline will remain stable, moderate, and strong next week.

In May 2024, the overall cash and tax inclusive price range for magnesium ingots (99.9%, non acid washed, simple packaging) from various major production areas in China is between 18400 and 18800 yuan/ton, with actual orders mainly negotiated.

The specific price range for each region on the 31st is as follows:

The ex factory tax inclusive spot exchange in Fugu area is 18600-18700 yuan/ton; The current exchange rate in Taiyuan area is 18700-18800 yuan/ton; The current exchange rate in Wenxi area is 18800-18900 yuan/ton; The current exchange rate in Ningxia is 18600-18700 yuan/ton.

Magnesium ingots are native magnesium ingots in accordance with the national standard (GB/T3499-2011); Non acid washing, no wooden pallets, and non payment acceptance price, actual order negotiation is the main focus.

Overview of the trend of magnesium metal in May

According to data from Business Society, the average domestic market price on the 31st was 18700 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18% compared to the average market price of 18666.67 yuan/ton in early May (5.1); Compared to the beginning of the year (1.1), the average market price was 20600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.22%.

In April, the magnesium ingot market first fell and then rose, with overall prices slightly rising. The supply and demand sides are more in a stalemate game, with manufacturers supported by costs and relatively firm quotes, leading to a slight increase in magnesium prices. However, downstream buyers have limited acceptance of high prices, resulting in insufficient efforts to further boost magnesium prices.

In terms of supply and demand

In terms of factories, the magnesium plant has slightly increased in operation, and the market supply is relatively sufficient. Due to the continuous increase in production costs, manufacturers are reluctant to sell at low prices, and their price support sentiment is relatively strong. In terms of demand, after the end of the holiday at the beginning of the month, there was an increase in market procurement release. However, with the increase in magnesium ingot prices and the need for pre holiday procurement customers to consume inventory, downstream market procurement prices have stabilized, and procurement is mainly cautious and wait-and-see.

In terms of exports, according to Chinese customs statistics, China exported a total of 161300 tons of various magnesium products from January to April, a year-on-year increase of 21.46%; The cumulative amount is about 486 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 3.70%. Among them, a total of 93200 tons of magnesium ingots were exported, a year-on-year increase of 39.52%; Magnesium alloy exports totaled 34200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.63%; A total of 29000 tons of magnesium powder were exported, an increase of 30.04% year-on-year. The export price of magnesium ingots in April was lower than expected, and the export volume decreased significantly compared to March.

Ferrosilicon rose 19.34% in May

In May, the price of ferrosilicon increased significantly, especially with the issuance of the “2024-2025 Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan” at the end of the month. The bullish sentiment in the ferrosilicon market was strong, and ferrosilicon futures rose to the limit at 7824 yuan. The spot market was affected by market conditions, and some manufacturers suspended their quotations. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 30, the price of ferrosilicon was 7714.29 yuan/ton. The blue charcoal market remained stable and rose in May, as coal prices rose and blue charcoal companies showed a clear sentiment of price support. The strong operation of raw material prices and the strengthening of cost support for magnesium ingots.

Future Market Forecast

From the perspective of supply and demand, it is difficult to change the short-term fundamentals of strong supply and weak demand. The market is relatively anxious, and downstream customers are resistant to high prices. They are holding onto rigid demand to buy at low prices, and the upward trend of magnesium prices is showing signs of weakness. But due to cost support, it is difficult for magnesium prices to decline. Overall, the short-term price of magnesium ingots is in a dilemma, and the future market tends to be dominated by narrow fluctuations.