According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, after mid January, the bullish factors still exist, and the domestic adipic acid market continues to rise, with an increase of over 2%. On January 15th, the average market price of adipic acid was 8200 yuan/ton. On January 22nd, the average market price of adipic acid in China was 8366 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.03%.

Lido supports domestic adipic acid market to continue rising

After mid January, the prices of adipic acid raw materials such as pure benzene and cyclohexanone continued to rise, driven by the stocking market in the terminal plastic industry. Major adipic acid manufacturers raised their factory prices, and the domestic adipic acid market continued to recover, with prices continuously increasing. The average market price rose to 8300-8600 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 200 yuan/ton.

An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that after the Spring Festival, the rise in raw material prices will be weak, and the supply of adipic acid will be loose, which will continue to put pressure on the future market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, there have been signs of recovery in domestic lithium carbonate recently. As of January 21, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in China was 79780 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.24% from 78880 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year; The average price of battery grade lithium carbonate is 76660 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.26% from 76400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year.

Supply side production reduction

From a foreign perspective, the decline in lithium prices in the third quarter of 2024 has led to increased production cuts in overseas lithium mines, with some mining companies selling assets to recoup funds and some lithium mines reducing production.

Domestically, lithium salt factories in China have maintenance and shutdown plans, and production is expected to continue to decrease.

Strong performance on the demand side

The operating rate of downstream positive electrode material enterprises remains at a high level, with no significant reduction in production. The demand for pre holiday replenishment is strong, and spot transactions are gradually improving.

The production schedule of battery factories is relatively stable, with a significant increase compared to the same period last year.

Macro deposit positive news

Domestically speaking, the Ministry of Finance has issued the “Several Measures to Strengthen Support for Large scale Equipment Upgrades and Consumer Goods Trade in”, and by 2025, the “Two New” policies in the automotive market will be strengthened and expanded. Automobile companies may continue the price war to support demand expectations.

From a foreign perspective, the unrest in mining areas in Nigeria and Mozambique has raised concerns in the market about their impact on the shipment of lithium concentrates from Africa.

Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that as the Spring Festival approaches, most logistics have been suspended, and spot transactions are bleak. It is expected that lithium carbonate will operate weakly and steadily in the near future.

This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 20th, the price of isooctanol was 7966.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 4.37% compared to the price of 7633.33 yuan/ton on January 13th last week. The construction of new equipment and the high level of equipment construction in isooctanol enterprises have led to sufficient supply of isooctanol. During the Spring Festival, the demand for isooctanol has increased, resulting in a double increase in supply and demand. As a result, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and risen this week.

This week, the supply of isooctanol increased and the demand decreased

Isooctanol enterprises are operating at a high level, coupled with the continuous production of new octanol capacity, resulting in an increase in the supply of isooctanol. Before the Spring Festival, downstream manufacturers replenished their inventory, leading to an increase in demand for isooctanol and a greater driving force for its price increase.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuate and rise this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 20th, the DOP price was 8613.75 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 2.53% compared to the DOP price of 8401.25 yuan/ton on January 13th last week. The rise in raw material prices has led to an increase in the cost of plasticizer DOP. Spring Festival stocking, increasing demand for plasticizers. Supported by rising costs and demand, there is a significant driving force for the increase in plasticizers. With the end of stocking, the expected demand for plasticizers has fallen, and the downward pressure on plasticizers has increased.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, in the future, the high equipment production of isooctanol enterprises, coupled with the production of new equipment, will alleviate the shortage of isooctanol supply and ensure sufficient supply of isooctanol; The Spring Festival stocking has ended, and the demand support for isooctanol has weakened. The strong supply and weak demand of isooctanol are expected to lead to a slight decline in the price of isooctanol in the future market.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of January 17th, the average price of domestic industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane was 7766.67 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of cyclohexane remained stable, with no significant changes compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream market price remains at around 7800 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost: Recently, the price of pure benzene has been consistently strong, with a month on month increase in operating rates and high capacity utilization. This week, the arrival of pure benzene at the port was low, supported by downstream demand. The transaction atmosphere in the East China market is active, and delivery is smooth. It is expected to maintain the current trend in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there is some support on the upstream cost side, and downstream demand procur

ement is running. It is expected that the cyclohexane market will remain stable, moderate, and strong in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 15, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 7116 yuan/ton. Compared with January 10 (reference price of n-butanol is 7216 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.39%.

This week (1.10-1.15), the overall n-butanol market in Shandong, China, was weak and declining. During the week, the high-end price of n-butanol was not smooth in shipping, and downstream users restocked at low prices. Many n-butanol factories began to offer discounts and lower the shipping price of n-butanol by around 100 yuan/ton. As of January 15th, the reference price for n-butanol in the domestic Shandong region is around 7100-7200 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 50-100 yuan/ton within the week.

In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the overall production of n-butanol in the market is relatively stable, downstream users are cautious in stocking raw materials, high price trading volume is low, downstream inventory is low, and the buying atmosphere and negotiation are relatively low-end.

Market price situation of n-butanol

Region/ Product/ January 15th

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ Around 7100-7200 yuan/ton

North China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7100-7200 yuan/ton

South China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7400-7450 yuan/ton

East China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7350-7450 yuan/ton

Market analysis in the future

Currently, after the n-butanol factory voluntarily offered discounts for shipments, the low-end price transactions in the market have improved, and the overall downstream inquiry atmosphere has increased. The n-butanol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly stabilize and operate, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from January 2nd to 10th, the domestic ethanol price rose from 5157 yuan/ton to 5200 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.82% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 20.76%. In January, with the approaching of the Spring Festival, the terminal Baijiu factory started the pre festival stocking mode; Recently, the downstream chemical industry has also entered the pre holiday stocking stage. Boosted by favorable demand, the domestic ethanol market has stopped falling and rebounded.

On the cost side, the boost on the cost side is limited, and the lack of sustained upward driving force for raw materials cassava and corn. The cost of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, the supply in various regions remained stable, and the prolonged shutdown of Yushen equipment provided some positive support for the market. However, the supply of edible ethanol equipment nationwide remained relatively stable, with stable consolidation of spot goods. There are unlikely to be major favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

On the demand side, downstream liquor companies’ New Year’s Day has boosted market confidence in multiple dimensions. With the approaching Spring Festival holiday, new consumer demand has been released from terminals, and downstream manufacturers’ purchasing enthusiasm has been greatly boosted, driving a better trading atmosphere in the raw material ethanol market. The short-term impact of ethanol demand is expected to break through.

Future forecast: From the overall supply side, the spot supply of ethanol in the national market is relatively loose; From a demand perspective, the Spring Festival travel rush will start in January, logistics will gradually take a break, and downstream stocking may have entered the final stage. Business Society’s ethanol analyst predicts that the domestic ethanol market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, starting from December 12th, the hydrogen peroxide market continued to decline weakly, with a drop of nearly 5%. On December 12th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 736 yuan/ton. On January 7th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.98% in price.

Terminal demand is weak, and hydrogen peroxide continues to decline

Starting from December 12th, the terminal printing and papermaking industry has gradually stopped maintenance, resulting in a decrease in demand for hydrogen peroxide procurement. In addition, the supply of hydrogen peroxide is relatively loose. Although some manufacturers have stopped maintenance, due to the high inventory level, hydrogen peroxide continues to decline weakly, and the market average price has fallen to 650-700 yuan/ton. The market price of hydrogen peroxide in Hebei region is 670 yuan/ton, and the market remains stable; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Anhui region is 780 yuan/ton, and the market is stable. The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Shandong region is 600 yuan/ton, and the price remains stable.

Business Society’s hydrogen peroxide analyst believes that as the Spring Festival approaches, hydrogen peroxide manufacturers are gradually stopping for maintenance, easing supply pressure, and the market for hydrogen peroxide may experience a rebound in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of light soda ash slightly decreased on December 31st, with a market average price of 1528 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day’s price of 1538 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.65%, and a decrease of 1.80% compared to the beginning of the month. On December 31st, the Business Society’s light soda ash index was 78.36, a decrease of 0.51 points from yesterday, a decrease of 58.56% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 24.09% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

On December 31st, the soda ash market saw a slight decline. The operating rate of the supply side soda ash plant remains high, the market supply of goods is sufficient, the manufacturer’s inventory is high, and the sales pressure of soda ash enterprises is relatively high, resulting in a shift in the focus of transactions; On the demand side, the demand for replenishment in the terminal market is not high, and inquiries for soda ash are limited. Enterprises are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, and soda ash prices in some regions are consolidating downward.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, glass prices remained stable on December 31st, with an average market price of 16.40 yuan/square meter, unchanged from the previous trading day. The glass market equipment has not changed much, the production has remained stable, downstream stocking is not high, the market trading atmosphere is weak, and the glass market is operating steadily and observing.

Future forecast: Currently, the utilization rate of domestic soda ash production capacity is high, the inventory of spot soda ash plants is sufficient, and the downstream glass industry prices are stable. However, there is limited support for soda ash demand, and there is a lack of favorable market conditions. It is expected that the soda ash market will operate weakly and steadily after the holiday, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market rose in December 2024. From December 1st to 31st, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 9725 yuan/ton to 10800 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 11.05% during the period.

Early this month: The domestic butadiene market has slightly rebounded, with poor arrival conditions in the East China region and tight supply expectations in the spot market. Boosted by this news, spot market offers have generally risen. However, downstream demand remains weak, with poor purchasing intentions and a lack of demand support, resulting in insufficient upward momentum in the market. Overall, the downstream market has a strong wait-and-see attitude and lacks demand support. The trend of the butadiene market rose first and then stabilized during the week, while Sinopec still implemented a price of 9800 yuan/ton.

Mid month: The domestic butadiene market continues to rise, and the overall available supply in the spot market is tight. Holders of goods have a strong mentality of raising prices, and spot market quotations are generally on the rise. Boosted by this news, spot market offers generally rose. But as prices continue to rise, downstream delivery capabilities gradually decline. Overall, the downstream market currently has a strong wait-and-see attitude and lacks demand support. The trend of the butadiene market rose first and then stabilized this week, and Sinopec raised it to 10900 yuan/ton.

Late of the month: The domestic butadiene market fluctuated slightly during this cycle, and market prices experienced a slight correction. As prices continue to rise, downstream delivery capabilities are gradually declining. Overall, the downstream market currently has a strong wait-and-see attitude and lacks demand support. The butadiene market has shown a high volatility trend this cycle, and Sinopec still maintains a price of 10900 yuan/ton.

Cost wise: The crude oil market has fluctuated and strengthened this month, with prices overall rising during the cycle, driving an improvement in the atmosphere of the spot market. As of December 30th, international crude oil futures have risen, with the settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures at $70.99 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $74.39 per barrel.

Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec has been raised multiple times this month, with a price of 10900 yuan/ton as of the 31st, which is 1100 yuan/ton higher than the same period last week’s 9800 yuan/ton. Recently, the comprehensive operating rate of the domestic butadiene industry has not changed much, and the overall supply is relatively stable.

Demand side: The domestic styrene butadiene rubber market has shown an overall upward trend in this cycle, but the increase is limited. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic styrene butadiene rubber market has experienced a wide decline in this cycle. The price of raw material butadiene continues to rise, while the price of styrene slightly decreases, providing support for the cost of styrene butadiene rubber. Downstream all steel tire production has slightly increased; The production of styrene butadiene rubber has slightly increased. The supply price of styrene butadiene rubber has been raised, and as of December 23, the mainstream market price of 1502 styrene butadiene rubber in Fushun, Jihua, Yangzi, and Qilu in East China is around 14850~15200 yuan/ton.

External market: The butadiene external market rose in December, and as of December 30th, the closing price of butadiene external market: among them, the FOB price in South Korea was reported at 1205-1215 US dollars/ton; China CFR reports $1255-1245 per ton; European butadiene FOB Rotterdam closed at $975-985/ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 985-995 euros/ton.

Market forecast: The overall supply of butadiene will be tight in the near future, with limited port sources, and market sentiment remaining strong. From the perspective of demand, the downstream synthetic rubber market has been weak in recent times, and due to poor profits, production has slightly declined, providing strong support for the butadiene market. Overall, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, and there is insufficient momentum for the butadiene market to continue to rise. Market sentiment tends to be wait-and-see, and it is expected that market prices will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term. In the future, the focus will be on the production of new facilities and the arrival of ports.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic BDO market is weak and stagnant. From December 1st to 30th, MTBE prices fell from 8642 yuan/ton to 8485 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.82% during the period and a year-on-year price drop of 11.01%.

In the first half of the month, with the restart of the agent exchange device, the industry’s capacity utilization rate has significantly increased. However, some of the new production capacity is outsourced for driving materials, and online sales are relatively high, leading to a price conscious attitude among suppliers. The supply-demand game continues, and the domestic BDO market is deadlocked.

In mid month, the domestic BDO market remained cautious and the trading focus did not fluctuate significantly. Recently, the supply side support has been average, but the inventory pressure on the market is controllable, and the supply side’s stable market mentality continues. The follow-up of downstream contracts is still acceptable, while spot trading is light and negotiated. The game between supply and demand is intensifying, and the market is caught in a dilemma of ups and downs.

At the end of the month, the domestic BDO market remained weak and deadlocked, with frequent fluctuations in equipment and a significant decline in industry capacity utilization. Supply side support increased, and the main intention was for suppliers to support the market. The overall demand downstream of the terminal is still acceptable, but under cost pressure, there is little fluctuation in the market due to bargaining over raw materials and supply-demand negotiations.

Supply side: In terms of equipment, the capacity utilization rate of the BDO industry has significantly declined, leading to a reduction in market supply, which is somewhat favorable for the supply side. And the factory’s online auction reached a high of 9000 yuan/ton, indicating a strong sense of market stability among suppliers. The supply side is influenced by favorable factors.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market has seen a narrow upward trend, with production enterprises shipping smoothly and overall downstream procurement enthusiasm increasing. Raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market continues to rise. As of 3:00 pm on December 30th, the domestic methanol Taicang price is 2750 yuan/ton. The raw material calcium carbide market is fluctuating and consolidating, with methanol prices rising and BDO costs being influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, the downstream PTMEG and PBAT industries are experiencing a decline in load, while other industries are operating relatively steadily, and the overall digestion of raw materials is still acceptable. However, many downstream industries have suffered long-term losses, and their ability to accept high prices of raw materials is weak. They have maintained contract order trading, and spot negotiations have been sluggish. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.

In the future forecast, the overall industry load is not high, and there is some support from the supply side. The supply side’s support for the market mentality continues. Follow up on downstream contract orders, weak intention to purchase spot goods, and focus more on sales policies for the new year. Supply and demand game, Business Society’s BDO analyst predicts that the domestic BDO market will mainly focus on consolidation and observation.