The price of ethylene glycol will soar in 2026, and the current price has reached a new high in nearly 4 years. As of September 4th, the average spot market price for domestic oil to ethylene glycol traders was 6370 yuan/ton, an increase of 64.85% from the market average price of 3864.17 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year (January 1st).
The price of ethylene glycol for paper cargo in East China ports has dropped sharply due to a sharp decrease in incoming shipments, resulting in historically low port inventory and tight supply. The market basis is high, and there is a transaction with a spot basis quotation of+1150 for delivery today.
Port paper goods are mainly priced based on basis, with prices closely following fluctuations in the futures market. Recently, the futures price of ethylene glycol has risen significantly, and the base quotes of port paper cargo ethylene glycol base traders are high and firm.
Domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol spot (loose water, tax included, self pickup) vehicle manufacturers have raised the auction price at 6200-6400 yuan/ton. At present, the manufacturer’s quotation is relatively high, and the profits of traders who hoard goods in the early stage can be reduced.
In September 2026, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the port was extremely low
On September 3, 2026, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 139000 tons, a decrease of 277000 tons from the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China on July 30, which was 416000 tons.
At present, the inventory of ethylene glycol at ports is extremely low, setting a new historical low.
Reasons for the significant increase in ethylene glycol prices in 2026:
Recently, the price of ethylene glycol has risen significantly. On the one hand, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has disrupted shipping, resulting in a significant reduction in imported goods. On the other hand, the concentrated maintenance of multiple sets of coal production facilities in China has led to a decline in domestic output. The inventory of ports in East China is at a historical low, and the spot buffer is insufficient; On the other hand, crude oil and coal have raised production costs, while the traditional peak season for polyester in the second half of the year has provided strong demand support. The market’s expectation of tight supply has driven inventory replenishment behavior, and multiple factors have jointly driven the strengthening of ethylene glycol prices. The specific reasons are as follows:
1. Geopolitical conflicts impact imports (core)
About 28% of China’s ethylene glycol relies on imports, with over 60% of imported goods coming from the Middle East. The escalation of the US Iran confrontation has hindered shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and Saudi and Iranian installations have reduced their load/stopped, resulting in shipment disruptions; The monthly import volume has plummeted from 600000 tons in previous years to 150000 to 260000 tons, resulting in a significant reduction in supply and long shipping schedules. Even if navigation resumes, it will take more than 25 days for goods to arrive at the port, making it difficult to make up for the shortfall in the short term.
2. Domestic supply contraction
In July and August, multiple main coal to ethylene glycol units in China underwent centralized maintenance, involving a total production capacity of over 3.5 million tons, resulting in a decline in domestic output; After the restart of the oil production unit, the load ramp up is slow, and the domestic increment is limited, which is not enough to fully make up for the import gap.
3. Port inventory drops to historically low levels
The inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China has rapidly decreased to a nearly five-year low, with almost no buffer inventory. The supply of spot goods is tight, and the basis has significantly strengthened. A small gap will amplify the elasticity of spot price increases, driving futures to rise synchronously.
4. Cost increase
The conflict in the Middle East has driven up international crude oil prices, while the rising prices of naphtha and ethylene have increased the cost of producing ethylene glycol from oil; At the same time, coal prices are relatively strong, and the cost of coal production routes is rising synchronously, which forms a bottom support for prices and drives the sentiment of the entire energy and chemical sector to strengthen.

5. Maintain rigidity in downstream demand and boost market expectations
Polyester enters the traditional peak season in the second half of the year, and polyester factories have stable demand; The market is concerned about the continued tight supply of goods, and traders and downstream actively replenish inventory and lock up goods, further exacerbating the shortage of spot goods and amplifying market gains.
Prediction of Future Price Trends for Ethylene Glycol:
Short term (September October): Geographically dominant, spot prices tend to be strong, but upward potential is limited
At present, the inventory of ports in East China is at a low level in the past five years. If the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz fails to repair significantly and imports continue to be low, coupled with delayed shipping schedules, there will still be strong support for spot prices in recent months, and prices will remain volatile at a high level. But after the price rose, the profits of domestic coal and oil production facilities were restored, and maintenance facilities were gradually restarted, resulting in an increase in domestic supply; At the same time, high prices squeeze the profits of polyester, and there is a risk of negative pressure reduction in polyester and weaving. Negative demand feedback will constrain further upward momentum, and the upward momentum will gradually weaken. The biggest risk variable is the situation in the Middle East. If navigation resumes and there is a backlog of cargo arriving at the port, spot goods will quickly come under pressure and fall back.
Mid term (Q4): Price center of gravity is highly likely to fall back
On the one hand, domestic maintenance equipment has been fully restored, and multiple sets of large-scale new production capacity were put into operation in the fourth quarter, resulting in a significant increase in domestic supply; On the other hand, once Middle Eastern shipping eases and imported goods flow back, ports will shift from destocking to accumulating inventory. Combined with the downstream “Golden September and Silver October” peak season not meeting expectations, polyester production has continued to decline due to continuous losses, and supply and demand pressures have been released. The price center of ethylene glycol will decline, and the price premium brought by geography will gradually disappear.
Medium to long term (2027): The pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and the valuation center shifts downwards
This round of upward trend is a temporary market caused by geopolitical disturbances, and has not changed the background of overcapacity in the industry. There will continue to be new production capacity added in the future, but the growth rate of polyester demand is limited, and the overall supply pressure is relatively high. If there are no major external shocks, the overall price will return to a weak and volatile pattern.

Supply side: The 900000 ton ethylene glycol/diethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu has successfully restarted recently, with a current load of 70-80%. Due to the lack of substantial lifting of the blockade in the Middle East situation, the short-term passage through the strait has led to a shortage of imported goods from the Middle East; Taiwan’s equipment will resume supply in September; Domestic equipment has increased its load due to improved efficiency, and some factories have restarted, resulting in increased supply. According to statistics, as of August 31st, the inventory of diethylene glycol ports in East China was 4300 tons, an increase of 700 tons from the previous cycle. This cycle (September 1-7), Zhangjiagang Diethylene Glycol has no planned arrival volume at the port. Last week, all domestic and overseas goods have been stored in the warehouse.
Demand side: The news of reduced production in the polyester sector has been released, and the comprehensive load of polyester in September has dropped to around 78%. It is estimated that the monthly average load of polyester in September will be around 77%, and the overall UPR production will be 30%. We will pay attention to the follow-up of terminal inventory replenishment. According to statistics, as of August 27th, the average weekly production of unsaturated resin factories in China was 33%. In terms of dock shipments, from August 24th to 30th, the total amount of shipments from the main ports in East China, Changjiang International and Fubao Warehouse, was 1257 tons, with an average daily shipment of about 180 tons. On August 31st, the total shipment volume from Zhangjiagang’s two storage areas was 75 tons, a decrease of 105 tons compared to last Sunday’s average shipment.
On the cost side: The United States and Iran have once again experienced a low-intensity military conflict, and market concerns about supply risks have once again increased. At the same time, there is still no sign of full opening of the Strait of Hormuz, which provides positive support for oil prices and leads to an increase in international oil prices.
Market outlook: In the short term, macro news is still fluctuating, import supply is temporarily unavailable, and terminal inventory is difficult to effectively accumulate in September. Short selling risks still exist under the background of delivery. However, with the restart/negative load of domestic equipment, concerns about supply shortages on the demand side are slowing down, and the expected volatility of diethylene glycol prices in September is still significant, so caution is still needed.

At the end of July, calcium carbide fell to a low level (about 2100 yuan/ton), and in August, it began to rebound and rise. At the beginning of the month, the benchmark price was 2360 yuan/ton, which stabilized at 2500 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of nearly 6%; The ex factory price in the main production area of Wuhai has risen from 2100 yuan/ton to 2450-2550 yuan/ton, with a rapid increase in the first half of the year and a stable operation at a high level in the second half of the year.
1. Periodic contraction on the supply side (the main reason for this round of rise)
Electricity consumption control and spot electricity prices have risen in the main production areas of Northwest Inner Mongolia, causing enterprises to avoid peak production and reduce load by shutting down boilers, resulting in a significant decrease in market commodity volume; At the beginning of the month, multiple calcium carbide factories took the initiative to control production, and the circulation of spot goods tightened. The tight supply of goods led to a reluctance to sell and a rise in sentiment. Although there are still export sources of integrated supporting equipment, the short-term supply gap supports price rebound.
2. Bottom lifting on the cost side
Raw material blue charcoal slightly increased its quotation in early August, with low coking production and low blue charcoal inventory; The cost of electricity itself accounts for the majority of the cost of calcium carbide, and the disturbance of electricity prices further raises production costs, forming a rigid cost support for calcium carbide, and weakening the willingness of enterprises to sell at low prices.
3. Downstream replenishment expectations drive procurement recovery
The PVC industry has entered a centralized maintenance cycle. Although the demand for terminal real estate is weak, the raw materials are low in the early stage, and downstream restocking is done at low prices, resulting in temporary release of essential needs; Combined with the market’s expectation of early stocking during the traditional Golden September peak season in September, the purchasing enthusiasm has improved compared to July, forming a marginal improvement in supply and demand.

Weak demand: The production of PVC downstream pipes and profiles is relatively low, and product orders are lower than expected. The overall downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and there is no sustained strong demand explosion;
Integrated chlor alkali enterprises still have an increase in the export of calcium carbide, and there is a greater elasticity for resuming production under high profits. After a significant price surge, resuming production will suppress further upward potential;
In the medium term, the industry is still in a pattern of overcapacity, and this round belongs to a low-level recovery rebound, not a trending upward trend.
Future logic
August belongs to the bottom rebound market driven by supply contraction; Focus on two points in September: ① Whether the electricity policies in the main production areas have been relaxed and the pace of resuming production of shutdown devices; ② Actual realization status of PVC real estate infrastructure terminals. If the resumption of production increases and the demand during peak season is falsified, calcium carbide is likely to fluctuate at a high level, and there will be insufficient momentum to continue its sharp rise.

Calcium carbide rebounded from its low point in July in August, with supply contraction caused by northwest power control and support from the cost of blue carbon. Coupled with downstream low inventory replenishment, prices rose; But the terminal demand is weak, and the upward space is limited. The market is mainly recovering and rebounding at a low level.

Bromine prices have been weakly consolidating this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 39500 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 37700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.56% and an increase of 28.23% compared to the same period last year. On August 27th, the bromine index was 132.98, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 46.01% from the highest point of 246.32 points (2026-04-07) during the cycle, and an increase of 125.70% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
The price of bromine has been weak this week. The recent price of bromine in Shandong region is around 37000-38000 yuan/ton, and manufacturers are still reluctant to sell and pushing prices. Some traders are selling at low prices, resulting in a slight decline in transaction prices. On the demand side: However, the downstream industry demand is generally average, so we will continue with the procurement of essential needs.
In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have fallen overall this week, with an average market price of 9202.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 8769 yuan/ton over the weekend. The price has decreased by 4.71% and increased by 232.45% compared to the same period last year. Downstream demand is still acceptable.
Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to consolidate and operate in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to be weak. However, the supply of bromine has been average in the near future, and downstream buyers are mostly purchasing according to demand. Downstream buyers are in the off-season of the industry, and the overall trading atmosphere is quiet. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that bromine prices will consolidate and operate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

This week, the market price of pure benzene in Shandong has risen. The price of pure benzene was 7751 yuan/ton on Monday and 8187.67 yuan/ton on Friday, with a 5.63% increase in price during the week.
2、 Market analysis
Pure benzene: The market price of pure benzene in Shandong has risen this week. During the week, Sinopec’s refineries in East China, South China, and Central China have raised the price of pure benzene twice in a row, with a cumulative increase of 550 yuan. The latest price of pure benzene is currently 8250 yuan/ton, which will be implemented on August 21st. The latest situation between the United States and Iran is tense, with international oil prices rising and strong support for pure benzene, indicating a strong trend. Today’s Shandong local refining market mainly focused on stable prices and slight price increases.
3、 Future forecast
Crude oil futures: On August 20th, international crude oil futures closed higher. The settlement price of the October WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $86.83 per barrel, an increase of $2.44 or 2.9%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October was $93.78 per barrel, an increase of $2.16 or 2.4%.
Foreign pure benzene: On August 20th, FOB Korea rose by 7 to 1017 US dollars per ton, and CFR China rose by 9 to 1031 US dollars per ton. FOB Rotterdam rose by $27 to $1179 per ton, FOB USG rose by $9 to 481 cents per gallon.
Overall forecast: Pure benzene is expected to maintain high volatility in the short term. Observe the cost and demand side news. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in pure benzene and downstream equipment dynamics and demand on the price of pure benzene.

This week, the aniline market continued its upward trend. On August 10th, the price of aniline in the market was 11525 yuan/ton, and on August 14th, it was 11925 yuan/ton. The price increased by 3.47% during the week and 57.96% compared to the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and Review
Multiple sets of aniline maintenance and production fluctuations within the week have led to a continuous tightening of supply. The factory’s quotation has increased twice, causing tight supply and reduced inventory to a low level. Traders have increased their prices for sales. As of this Friday, the mainstream domestic price for aniline is 11900-12000 yuan/ton.
On the cost side, the pure benzene market is experiencing strong fluctuations. Due to the impact of typhoons, the unloading of pure benzene cargo has been postponed, inventory at Jiangsu’s main ports continues to decline, and the restart time of some pure benzene facilities has been delayed, resulting in lower than expected production returns. As a result, the focus of pure benzene negotiations has increased. Downstream varieties maintain negative demand feedback, resulting in overall low downstream load. Overall, although the increase in supply is slightly lower than expected, the demand side is still weak, so the rebound space for pure benzene is limited.
3、 Future expectations
The current price of aniline has risen to a high level, and the market is digesting the increase. Under high costs, the downstream market’s enthusiasm for entering the market has weakened, with rigid demand being the main factor. It is expected that there will be significant resistance to the continued rise of aniline in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in costs and demand.

In the first half of August 2026 (8.1-8.12), the overall market situation of Shandong’s n-propanol showed a weak downward trend. The market price of n-propanol adjusted downward one after another, and the focus of negotiations shifted towards the low level. The cumulative downward adjustment in the second half of the year was about 200 yuan/ton. On August 12th, the reference price of Shandong’s n-propanol was 7100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.74% in the first half of the year.
2、 Market influencing factors
On the demand side: Currently, downstream demand for n-propanol is weak, and downstream industries such as traditional coatings, inks, and pharmaceutical intermediates are operating at a low level, resulting in insufficient follow-up of end product orders. Downstream enterprises tend to purchase on demand and lack the willingness to stock up in large quantities, resulting in weak market transaction follow-up. Intermediaries have a cautious attitude towards hoarding, making it difficult to support high prices.
On the supply side: Currently, the pressure on the supply side of the n-propanol market is still acceptable, and the overall operation of domestic n-propanol production enterprises is stable. The supply of goods is sufficient, and there is no significant tightening of spot supply. Against the backdrop of sustained weak demand, factories and traders actively lowered their quotes to stimulate transactions and drive prices down in order to promote shipments.
In terms of market mentality: The price of n-propanol in the early stage of the market has been sideways for a long time, and the market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment. As trading continues to remain sluggish, traders’ expectations for the future have weakened, and some holders have given priority to lowering prices and selling their goods. The market atmosphere of offering discounts for shipments has spread.
3、 Outlook for future market trends
In the short term, there is currently no clear positive driving force for n-propanol: downstream demand is difficult to quickly recover in the short term, spot supply is sufficient, and market bearish sentiment has not been fully digested. It is expected that the short-term price of Shandong n-propanol will mainly fluctuate weakly.

3、 The impact of industrial chain linkage
The price increase of butyl acrylate has driven synchronous fluctuations in upstream and downstream products. The demand for upstream acrylic monomers is expected to improve, and market quotations are synchronously strengthening; Products such as methyl acrylate and ethyl acrylate in the same industry chain maintained a narrow adjustment, while isooctyl acrylate saw a slight increase; Styrene, MMA and other lotion supporting raw materials rose at the same time. In the middle and late July, the mainstream market price of styrene was 8750-8800 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of nearly 1000 yuan. The MMA market price stood above 10300 yuan/ton. The cost of all lotion raw materials plate rose at the same time, and the cost pressure of middle and downstream production enterprises increased significantly.
4、 Prediction of future market operation
From the perspective of comprehensive industry information, the short-term butyl acrylate market is still supported by both cost and low inventory, and the probability of maintaining a strong spot price in early August is relatively high. In the medium to long term, the industry’s plan to resume production of equipment is gradually being implemented, and the estimated production in August has significantly increased compared to the previous month. The increase in supply will gradually alleviate the current tight spot market situation; The terminal demand of downstream coatings and lotion industry has limited increase, and the space for continuous sharp price rise is limited. The market may change from unilateral upward movement to interval shock operation.
Industry institutions remind that the core market observation indicators in the future will focus on three dimensions: the trend of upstream propylene raw material prices, the operating load of domestic butyl acrylate enterprises, and the operating rate of downstream terminal coating industry. The changes in these variables will directly determine the fluctuation range of market prices.

Cost wise: The decline in crude oil prices has driven down the prices of chemical products. During the week, the production of pure benzene remained low, downstream losses continued, procurement enthusiasm was not high, downstream resistance to high priced sources of goods, port inventory accumulated, and pure benzene prices fluctuated widely.
Supply and demand side: During the week, some styrene plants unexpectedly reduced their load, and the industry’s operating capacity dropped to around 60%. Due to limited follow-up on terminal demand, the resistance to high prices is maintained, and the three major downstream industries are operating at a relatively low level. The overall supply and demand pattern of styrene is relatively loose, and the weekly styrene port inventory has increased. And with the end of the month delivery of paper goods, there is a lack of follow-up on replenishment demand.
Styrene external market: On July 30th, the closing price of styrene in the Asian region rose by $10/ton, and the FOB closing price in South Korea was $1120-1130/ton. The closing price of CFR China is 1135-1145 US dollars per ton.
Market forecast: The current styrene market is constrained by demand and prices are weakening. Looking at the future, it is expected that the supply side inventory will tighten, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. It is expected that the styrene market will have a strong trend in the short term.