http://www.ammonium-persulfate.com news » lubon

Geopolitical risks push oil market to heat up, hitting nearly 5-month high

lubon — Wed, 21 Oct 2026 01:38:48 +0000

1、 Overview of the market
At the close of October 16th New York time (early morning of October 17th Beijing time), international crude oil futures strengthened significantly under the stimulation of geopolitical news, and the two benchmark contracts closed up synchronously, with a significant increase in market risk appetite. In November, WTI crude oil with active trading on NYMEX rose by $3.44, or 3.51%, with a settlement price of $101.41 per barrel, regaining its position at the $100 integer level after nearly a month; ICE Brent crude oil rose $3.94, or 3.72%, in December, with a settlement price of $109.86 per barrel, hitting a nearly 5-month high.
2、 Trend analysis
（1） Positive factors: Shipping disturbance in the Strait of Hormuz, significant increase in geopolitical risk premium
The core driving force of the daily market trend comes from sudden geopolitical news in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz, as the throat of global crude oil shipping, undertakes about 20% of the world’s shipped crude oil. Oil producing countries along the Persian Gulf coast rely on this waterway for 90% of their crude oil exports. Once the passage is blocked, it will directly impact the balance of global crude oil supply. On that day, there was a tanker fire accident in the waters of the strait, and the market was concerned about the disruption of waterway traffic, the risk of interruption in crude oil transportation, and the risk of supply disturbance caused by investors quickly pricing. The geopolitical risk premium increased.
Combined with the ongoing escalation of the Middle East conflict, market institutions have raised the probability of conflict spread, trading parties have actively increased their long positions in crude oil, and the expected increase in shipping insurance costs has further amplified supply concerns, driving up oil prices. Combined with the support brought by the significant decline in US crude oil inventories the day before, the resonance between fundamentals and geopolitical news has pushed oil prices to break through key pressure levels.
（2） Negative factors: Policy expectations and demand side constraints limit upward momentum
Despite the significant increase in oil prices on that day, there still exists a bearish logic that suppresses the market, restricting the unlimited rise of oil prices. On the one hand, the market continues to pay attention to the adjustment of the US sanctions policy against the “shadow fleet” of oil tankers. There is an expectation in the market that the US will relax relevant sanctions. If the policy is implemented, Iran’s crude oil exports are expected to increase, supplementing global crude oil supply and suppressing oil price increases.
On the other hand, the production policy statements of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) remain a key balancing variable in the market. Currently, OPEC+maintains its production reduction framework, but the market continues to monitor whether it will adjust its production based on changes in oil prices. In addition, at the global macro level, the recovery of overseas manufacturing industry is weak, and the expected demand for refined oil products in the medium and long term is weak. Under high oil prices, there is a restraining effect on the consumer end, which constitutes a long-term constraint on oil prices.
3、 Future prospects
Analysts believe that the trading logic of the short-term crude oil market has entered a stage of geopolitical dominance, with supply and demand fundamentals taking a secondary position, sudden news, and increased price fluctuations. The current trading mainline in the market is no longer the conventional supply-demand balance sheet, but whether the Middle East conflict will affect the main oil producing areas and key shipping channels. As long as the shipping safety risks in the Strait of Hormuz persist, the risk premium of crude oil will remain high; Once the situation eases, there is a possibility of concentrated profit taking and rapid oil price correction for high-level long positions. In the short term, oil prices will enter a wide range of fluctuations influenced by news, and are likely to hover at high levels.

Short term focus on tracking four main lines: first, the progress of the shipping situation in the Strait of Hormuz, whether there are more ship attacks and restricted passage incidents; Secondly, whether the Middle East conflict has further spread to crude oil production and export facilities; Thirdly, high-frequency fundamental data such as US crude oil inventories and demand for refined oil products; Fourthly, the policy trends of the United States regarding sanctions on shadow fleets of oil tankers, as well as the latest statements from OPEC+officials.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

This week, the styrene market fluctuated and fell (10.12-10.16)

lubon — Mon, 19 Oct 2026 03:08:52 +0000

This week, the styrene market fluctuated and fell, with an average price of 10974 yuan/ton on October 12th and 10864 yuan/ton on October 16th, a decrease of 1.00% during the cycle and a year-on-year increase of 57.45%.
Macro: On October 15th, international crude oil futures closed higher. The US WTI crude oil futures have seen a significant increase, with the November contract settlement price at $97.97 per barrel, up $2.88 or 3.0%. Brent crude oil futures closed almost flat, with the December contract settlement price at $105.92 per barrel, a decrease of $0.14 or 0.1%.
Cost aspect: Recently, the market price of pure benzene has been rising, and the inventory in the main ports of East China is low. Some empty orders for mid month delivery have been replenished, which has driven the market price center higher. The transaction volume of Shandong pure benzene market is still acceptable, with active buying and receiving at low levels. The demand for essential goods is still acceptable, and short-term supply expectations continue to be slightly tight, indicating a strong market trend.
Supply and demand side: Due to high raw material prices, styrene losses have intensified, and there has been an increase in maintenance and burden reduction enterprises, resulting in a decrease in supply. The port inventory is low and the expectation of accumulated inventory is not strong, resulting in a weak overall supply side. Downstream high priced raw materials have strong resistance, and the three major downstream loads are operating at low levels. Under the weak supply and demand situation, the market trading atmosphere is weak and prices are falling.
Styrene external market: On October 15th, the closing price of styrene in the Asian region fell by $45/ton, and the FOB closing price in South Korea was $1435-1445/ton. The closing price of CFR China is 1375-1385 US dollars per ton.
Market forecast: The current styrene production is fluctuating at a low level, with high costs and low inventory dragging down the bottom and demand dragging down the rise. It is expected that the styrene market will continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

The formic acid market returns to stability after the holiday

lubon — Sat, 10 Oct 2026 05:11:19 +0000

Recently, 85% of the domestic formic acid market has shown a trend of continuous decline before the holiday and stabilization after the holiday. On October 8th after the holiday, the benchmark price of 85% formic acid was 2000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13% from the same period last month when it was 2300 yuan/ton; Same as before the holiday. Overall, the supply and demand pattern of the formic acid market has improved in the short term, and market fluctuations have become more stable.
At the end of September, the market experienced a slight decline in prices due to factors such as inventory backlog and pre holiday clearance
The core cause of price decline is the continuous accumulation of inventory in the market, the slowdown of market shipment pace in the early stage, and the gradual increase in inventory pressure on merchants. In order to quickly recover funds and activate inventory, some merchants have actively released low-priced goods, resulting in an increase in low-priced transaction cases in the market, which directly drives the overall market transaction average price to slightly decrease, and the overall bargaining atmosphere in the industry is weak. Due to the special market factors approaching the National Day holiday, most production enterprises have focused on clearing inventory and shipping to avoid the risk of inventory backlog during the holiday, resulting in a continuous increase in low-priced supply in the market. Downstream terminals mainly rely on on-demand replenishment, with weak pre holiday stocking willingness and insufficient market demand support. Under the mismatch of supply and demand, the transaction center of formic acid market continues to shift downwards, and the overall pre holiday market is under pressure.
The market returns to stability after the holiday
After two rounds of adjustment before the holiday, the fundamentals of the formic acid market gradually improved during the National Day holiday, and the market stabilized smoothly. On October 8th, 85% of the domestic industrial grade formic acid market was dominated by horizontal consolidation. During the holiday, mainstream manufacturers stopped selling at low prices, and market prices stabilized at around 2000 yuan/ton. The price trend remained stable throughout the entire process, with no significant fluctuations. At the same time, the shipment situation during the holiday period was smooth, effectively alleviating the inventory pressure in the early stage. The overall inventory of the industry fell back to a reasonable median level, and the problem of market supply-demand imbalance was improved.
Based on the analysis of recent market trends, the price fluctuations in the formic acid market are mainly dominated by inventory cycles and holiday trading rhythms. The accumulation of pre holiday inventory and centralized inventory clearance have led to a price drop, while post holiday inventory digestion and manufacturer price increases have driven the market to stabilize and rebound. At present, the inventory pressure in the market is controllable, and the pricing mentality of merchants is stable. In the short term, if there are no new positive or negative supply and demand news, the domestic formic acid market is likely to continue its range sideways trend, and the price will remain stable around 2000 yuan/ton. In the future, we need to focus on the progress of downstream demand recovery and changes in manufacturer inventory.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

In September, the domestic acetone market remained stable with minor adjustments

lubon — Thu, 08 Oct 2026 01:56:58 +0000

In September 2026, the domestic acetone market experienced a strong upward trend, showing an overall trend of “recovery from low levels at the beginning of the month and fine-tuning from high levels at the end of the month”. The overall market growth was considerable, reaching a new high for the year. Data shows that the benchmark price of acetone in the domestic market was about 7225 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month, and the price continued to rise throughout the month. The mainstream market price in East China once soared to 9300-9350 yuan/ton, breaking the five-year high. At the end of the month, the market slightly fell and adjusted, and the mainstream quotation remained stable in the range of 8750-8800 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of over 20% throughout the month. The market trading atmosphere was generally warm.
The acetone market has seen a significant increase this month, driven by multiple resonances of tight supply, recovering demand, and cost support. The supply side is the core factor driving price increases. In September, several phenol ketone plants in China underwent phased maintenance and reduced load operation. Some major plants in Shandong, North China, and other regions suspended exports, resulting in a significant contraction in domestic spot circulation. Market spot inventory is at a low level, and the tight supply pattern continues to support market prices. At the same time, the arrival volume of imported cargo at the port this month is relatively low, and external sources of supply are limited, further exacerbating the tight domestic supply situation.
The synchronous recovery of demand side provides solid impetus for the upward trend of the market. The peak season effect of the traditional “Golden Nine” chemical industry is prominent, and the operating rates of downstream industries such as bisphenol A, MMA, and solvents are steadily increasing. Terminal factories are concentrating on replenishing inventory, and there is a surge in demand for essential purchases. The demand for goods preparation before the Mid Autumn Festival was released in a centralized manner, the market trading activity was significantly increased, the traders had a strong attitude of price fixing, and the spot transaction price was steadily rising, driving the overall market focus to continue moving upward. In terms of cost, the international crude oil and pure benzene prices fluctuated strongly during the month, providing basic cost support for the acetone market. Coupled with the long-term losses of phenol and ketone enterprises, manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices, effectively limiting the market’s downward space.
As we enter the end of the month, the market situation gradually cools down, and signs of high-level correction are emerging. The long short game intensifies, and the overall market will show a stable and slightly adjusted pattern in the future. The pressure on the supply side is gradually rising, and the phenol ketone units that were previously repaired have resumed production one after another. The export supply is steadily increasing, and coupled with the concentration of imported cargo at the port after the holiday, the domestic market supply will gradually ease, easing the tight supply situation in the early stage. The cost side benefits have weakened, and there are downward expectations in the crude oil market. The support for raw materials is gradually weakening, which will exert a certain pressure on acetone prices.
From the demand side, after the holiday, the end market’s stocking demand has come to an end, and downstream factories mainly purchase according to demand. The trend of centralized replenishment has subsided, and the support for essential needs has slowed down, making it difficult to support sustained high price increases. Overall, the short-term acetone market lacks sustained upward momentum, and companies still have the willingness to raise prices, with limited room for significant decline. It is expected that the market will mainly consolidate at a high level and experience a slight correction after the holiday, with mainstream prices likely fluctuating around the range of 8500-8900 yuan/ton.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

Cost support combined with insufficient demand increment, DBP prices consolidated after rising in September

lubon — Wed, 30 Sep 2026 03:37:56 +0000

As of September 29th, the DBP price was 10351.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 13.73% compared to the DOP price of 9101.67 yuan/ton on September 1st; Compared to September 10th, the DBP price of 10185 yuan/ton fluctuated and consolidated, with an increase of 1.64%. In early September, phthalic anhydride and n-butanol rose synchronously, with strong cost pull. In the middle and late of the month, phthalic anhydride at the raw material end fell first, followed by n-butanol weakening, and cost support loosened; In September, DBP showed a reverse trend of cost push up in the first half of the year and fluctuating consolidation in the second half of the year.
The price of isooctanol first rose and then fell in September
On September 29th, the price of isooctanol was 9116.67 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 3.21% compared to the price of 8833.33 yuan/ton on September 1st. Affected by geopolitical factors, crude oil prices first rose and then fell. In September, the overall trend of isooctanol market showed an inverted V-shaped pattern of “significant surge at the beginning of the month, decline in the middle of the month, and weak oscillation in the later part of the month”.
The price of phthalic anhydride first rose and then fell in September
As of September 29th, the price of phthalic anhydride from neighboring countries was 9933.33 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 5.67% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride of 9400 yuan/ton on September 1st. In early September, the price of phthalic anhydride was pushed up due to equipment maintenance and tight supply; The release of new sources of goods in the mid to late period and the decline in phthalic anhydride prices were the main drivers of DBP’s downward trend in the mid to late period.
The price of n-butanol rose in September and then fell back
On September 29th, the price of n-butanol was 8533.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 12.78% compared to the price of 7566.67 yuan/ton on September 1st. The DBP price in September followed the fluctuations of the n-butanol industry chain, with a strong trend in the first half of the year and a fluctuating correction after the middle of the month, weakening the support for DBP’s upward trend.
Demand side: Adequate demand, insufficient increment
Traditional downstream only maintains seasonal demand, but finished product orders from factories are generally average, mostly collected as needed and rarely stocked up; During the price increase phase, downstream consumers resist high prices. The expectation of “Golden September” fell through, and there was no obvious traditional peak season concentrated replenishment market in September. The realization of peak season benefits was limited, and the increment was insufficient.
Outlook for the coming period
Analysts believe that in the first half of the year, the rise in prices was driven by the rise in phthalic anhydride and n-butanol, but downstream demand did not increase synchronously; In the second half of the year, raw materials weakened, coupled with downstream wait-and-see measures, leading to a rapid price correction; On the supply side, there is a negative impact maintenance hedge to suppress the sharp decline, resulting in an overall weak and fluctuating pattern. The DBP cost driven market in September resulted in lower than expected demand during the peak season, and the short-term DBP market was mainly volatile and weak in the future.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

This week, caustic soda prices have been consolidating (9.21-9.24)

lubon — Mon, 28 Sep 2026 03:53:22 +0000

1、 Price trend

Sodium Molybdate

This week, the overall price of caustic soda is running strongly. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the weekend was around 639 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 23.38%. On September 23, the chlor alkali index was 735 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 65.46% from the highest point of 2128 points during the cycle (2021-10-24), and an increase of 3.96% from the lowest point of 707 points on February 27, 2026. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
This week, the price of caustic soda has been operating strongly. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 580-680 yuan/ton for 32% ion membrane alkali in the mainstream market. In Zhejiang region, the price of caustic soda is around 830-880 yuan/ton for 32% ion membrane alkali delivered to Xiaoshan mainstream market. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion membrane alkali is around 1850-1950 yuan/ton (converted to 100 yuan).
This week, the price of caustic soda lacked a positive boost, and the overall market was consolidating. The short-term fluctuations in the supply of liquid alkali in East China are limited, and there has been no significant improvement in domestic and foreign trade demand. Chlor alkali plants are controlling their inventory before the holiday and maintaining the current inventory level in multiple dimensions. The price of alumina is showing a fluctuating trend, and with the gradual release of the remaining new production capacity within the year, regional supply pressure continues to increase, and the pessimistic atmosphere in the market remains strong. It is expected that the price of alumina will fluctuate in the later period. Non aluminum downstream demand continues to increase through on-demand procurement.
Analysts believe that in recent times, the caustic soda prices have been consolidating this week, and downstream alumina suppliers in China have been purchasing on demand, with non aluminum companies receiving only average orders. Although there will be pre holiday stocking next week, caustic soda manufacturers will mainly hold existing inventory, and the comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda may tend to fluctuate, depending on downstream market demand.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

Since September, the methanol market has shown a significant upward trend

lubon — Sun, 20 Sep 2026 03:18:41 +0000

Since September (as of 15:00 on September 18th), the domestic methanol market in East China has continued to rise from 3250 yuan/ton to around 3983 yuan/ton, with a significant price increase of 22.56% during the period, a month on month increase of 41.76%, and a year-on-year increase of 76.12%.
Recently, the import supply of methanol along the coast has remained low, and there has been no significant increase in domestic supply supplementation. The overall coastal methanol market still shows tight supply, which provides strong support for prices. In addition, with the approaching Double Festival and downstream enterprises’ stocking demand, it supports the upward trend of the domestic methanol market.
As of the close on September 18th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2610, opened at 3450 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 3515 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 3395 yuan/ton. It closed at 3433 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 88 yuan or 2.50% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 2058212, the position is 288276, and the daily increase is -14219.
On the cost side, coal prices have stopped falling and stabilized, continuing to operate strongly, supporting the high volatility of methanol. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, from the downstream perspective, the overall production of olefins has rebounded, while the traditional downstream is constrained by price issues and the load has decreased. Pre holiday demand support still exists. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards favorable factors.
On the supply side, the overall recovery of the equipment exceeds the loss, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization and production output. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external markets, as of the close on September 17th, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at $617.5-618.5 per ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 150-152 cents per gallon; The European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 456-458 euros/ton.
Future forecast: Domestic supply is tight, downstream pre holiday stocking demand still exists, and the market buying atmosphere is driving prices to continue rising. Overall, analysts predict that the domestic methanol spot market may experience high-level consolidation.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

Domestic urea prices fluctuated and rose in the first half of September

lubon — Wed, 16 Sep 2026 01:23:30 +0000

1、 Price trend
As of September 15th, the reference average price of urea market in Shandong Province, China was 1802 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.26% compared to the reference average price of 1712 yuan/ton on September 1st.
2、 Market analysis
market situation
The domestic urea market was relatively strong and rose in the first half of this month. The export market for urea is improving, with rising prices of urea raw material coal and reduced market supply. Supported by favorable factors, urea prices have significantly increased. Recently, due to the release of the third batch of urea export quotas, urea prices have risen again. As of September 15th, the urea market prices in Shandong are around 1760-1810 yuan/ton, Hebei is around 1740-1780 yuan/ton, Henan is around 1760-1820 yuan/ton, Hubei is around 1720-1770 yuan/ton, and Liaoning is around 1800-1850 yuan/ton.
Supply and demand situation
In terms of supply, some enterprises have undergone equipment maintenance, and the operating rate of urea enterprises has decreased, but inventory remains high. In terms of demand, downstream compound fertilizer enterprises purchase on demand, while industrial and agricultural demand remains flat, with no significant improvement on the demand side.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that the domestic urea market trend has been relatively strong recently. At present, the demand side support of the urea market is insufficient, but the export volume of urea is beginning to increase, coupled with the approaching autumn fertilizer preparation. It is expected that the domestic urea market will continue to experience strong fluctuations in the short term.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

International crude oil prices exceed USD100, and the isooctanol market surged in September

lubon — Mon, 14 Sep 2026 02:13:01 +0000

The price of isooctanol increased significantly in September
On September 11th, the price of isooctanol was 9766.67 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 10.57% compared to the price of 8833.33 yuan/ton on September 1st. In early September, isooctanol fluctuated upwards, and the mainstream factory in Shandong has been rising since around 8800 at the beginning of the month. Currently, it is at a high level for the year, and the upward momentum is gradually weakening. The risk of high-level fluctuations and stagflation in the future market is relatively high.
The escalation of geopolitical games in the Middle East
In September, the escalation of the US Iran maritime conflict led to a decrease in navigation volume in the Strait of Hormuz and a surge in oil tanker insurance premiums; In early September, the Houthi armed offensive intensified, and on September 10th, they captured the Red Sea ports of Muha and Hanish Islands, strengthening their control over the Mandeb Strait. The market is concerned that both the Strait of Hormuz (the main channel for crude oil in the Persian Gulf) and the Strait of Mandeb (the Red Sea) are under pressure, leading to a surge in international crude oil prices. On September 11th, Oman took the lead in mediating, and on September 14th, the Iranian Foreign Minister and the foreign ministers of the six Gulf countries will meet in Salalah, Oman to discuss a temporary agreement on the passage of merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz; A major easing signal led to a rapid decline in crude oil prices on the 11th.
The cost of propylene has significantly increased
On September 11th, the propylene price was 10051 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 8.92% compared to the propylene price of 9227.67 yuan/ton on September 1st. The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East led to a significant surge in crude oil prices in early September, with oil prices reaching the $100 mark and experiencing severe fluctuations; The formation of cost support for propylene and isooctanol, but the geopolitical premium can quickly retreat at any time, posing a great risk of high volatility. High level oscillation of raw material propylene+bottom support of crude oil, strong cost support, providing bottom support for isooctanol; However, there is limited room for a significant increase in propylene prices, and the driving force for further cost increases has weakened.
Supply side
The overall operating rate of the isooctanol industry is 70% -75%, lower than the usual level, and the supply expectation is tightened. In addition, Hualu Hengsheng has a maintenance plan in September, and mainstream large factories are controlling the quantity and accepting orders in stages, resulting in a shortage of spot circulation sources. The overall supply of isooctanol market was tight in September.
Demand side
Expectations for the peak season of “Golden September” include a slight increase in downstream DOP production compared to the previous period, a slight rebound in essential procurement, and follow-up on the price increase of isooctanol; However, the actual demand for PVC and plastic products at the terminal is relatively mild, not an explosive strong demand. Most of them are restocked on demand, and the willingness to stock up is not strong. Other downstream demand remains stable, with limited impact on the market. The overall demand for isooctanol is expected to rebound and increase.
Future prospects
Analysts believe that the high rise in crude oil prices, the maintenance of isooctanol units, and the expected rebound in demand during peak seasons have stimulated the rise in isooctanol prices from various sources. But the price of isooctanol has reached a high point for the year, and downstream consumers are resistant to the high price, with insufficient willingness to chase after it; In addition, due to the strong volatility of geopolitical news, there is a risk of a significant drop in oil prices at any time. Overall, there is a high probability of isooctanol rising in the future market, but the potential for a significant increase is limited. In mid to late September, isooctanol is likely to fluctuate at a high level, and caution should be exercised against the risk of a surge and a pullback. Focus on the risk of a significant pullback in crude oil prices.

http://www.lubonchem.com/

Cost support: DOP prices fluctuate and rise in September

lubon — Tue, 08 Sep 2026 02:14:43 +0000

As of September 7th, the DOP price was 9817.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 2.43% compared to the DOP price of 9584.17 yuan/ton on September 1st. In September, the domestic DOP market continued to rebound, with prices continuing to rise, and prices in some regions once again breaking through the 10000 yuan mark. At the beginning of September, the DOP market showed a “strong rebound” characteristic, and then entered a volatile pattern of “more resistance to decline”. The DOP price is at a high level in nearly a year, but the upward momentum is still present.

Sodium Molybdate

The raw material market is on the rise
The price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose in September
As of September 7th, the price of isooctanol was 9166.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 3.77% compared to the price of 8833.33 yuan/ton on September 1st. 70% of the domestic production of isooctanol has started, and the mainstream equipment is running stably. The high level of crude oil brings cost support, and upstream propylene fluctuates strongly, supporting the production cost of isooctanol. If crude oil rebounds, cost support will weaken marginally, and propylene prices will fall, but the further significant upward momentum of propylene is limited. The price of isooctanol has risen, and the cost support of DOP has increased.
The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose in September
As of September 7th, the price of phthalic anhydride from neighboring countries was 9483.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 0.89% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on September 1st, which was 9400 yuan/ton. Affected by multiple factors such as the rise in international oil prices, the increase in raw material prices of ortho benzene and industrial naphthalene, and the tightening of supply due to some equipment maintenance, the price of phthalic anhydride rose again in early September, and DOP cost support still exists.
Cost side: DOP belongs to the cost transmission type product, and when the raw material side rises, the plasticizing plant passively follows suit; But when the growth rate of raw materials is too fast, it is difficult for downstream to undertake, which can easily lead to a reversal or compression of profits between raw materials and finished products. Isooctanol is the core driving force behind the upward trend of DOP, and the expected increase in isooctanol in the future will increase the cost support for DOP.
DOP Market Analysis
Supply side: Limited industry start-up and improvement
The operating load of the DOP industry has increased compared to early August, but has declined compared to the end of September, with limited overall supply growth. The spot supply of isooctanol continues to tighten, with low plant load and planned maintenance in the later stage. The supply prospects are tight, and new production capacity is also being put into operation one after another. The equipment operating rate is at a low level, and the overall supply is relatively sufficient. The processing profits of plasticizing enterprises have been compressed, and even slight losses have been incurred. Manufacturers have taken the initiative to slow down their willingness to increase load, resulting in overall low factory inventory.
Demand side: Traditional peak season, high price transmission hindered
During the traditional peak season of “Golden September”, the demand for PVC soft products, cable materials, and synthetic leather has improved compared to August, with an increase in inquiries but no explosive orders. Downstream product factories have limited capacity to increase production, with a focus on immediate use and procurement for essential needs, and a lack of willingness to stock up; There is obvious resistance to high priced DOP, and it is difficult to transmit downward price increases. Downstream companies dare not chase high prices, which hinders high priced transactions and limits the potential for further increase in DOP.

Market Overview and Future Expectations
Analysts believe that with high crude oil prices, overall chemical product costs are bottoming out, and the isooctanol unit undergoing maintenance, raw material costs remain strong at high levels; The expected peak season for the Golden September shopping festival has led to an improvement in downstream demand compared to the previous period. DOP’s upward support has increased. But DOP is already at a high level within the year, with poor downstream acceptance and weak willingness to pursue higher prices; If the fulfillment of terminal orders falls short of expectations and the quality during peak seasons is insufficient, there is a risk of a pullback in DOP. Overall, the future DOP market is expected to fluctuate at a high level under the support of cost, with limited room for significant growth and the risk of a pullback.

http://www.lubonchem.com/