The price of ethylene glycol will drop significantly in May 2026. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of May 29th, the average price of the domestic oil to ethylene glycol market was 4770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.47% from the average price of 5155 yuan/ton on May 1st.
In terms of port ethylene glycol, as of the 29th, the basis price of port ethylene glycol spot contracts (starting from 500 tons) fluctuates with the market. Today’s spot contract basis price is within the range of+85 to+93. As of the close, the basis price of next week’s contract will be+102 to+107, and the basis price of June’s contract will be+123 to+125.
The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol for whole vehicle manufacturers is 4030-4150 yuan/ton.
In terms of external ethylene glycol, as of May 29th, the negotiated landed price of Chinese ship cargo was around 578 US dollars/ton, and the negotiated landed price of Southeast Asian ship cargo was around 700 US dollars/ton.
Changes in Ethylene Glycol Port Inventory in May 2026:
On May 28, 2026, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 646000 tons, a decrease of 126400 tons from the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China on April 30, which was 772400 tons; Compared to March 30th, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 953000 tons, a decrease of 307000 tons in inventory.
Analysis of the reasons for the price reduction of ethylene glycol in May 2026:
The sharp drop in ethylene glycol prices in May 2026 is mainly due to the disappearance of geopolitical premiums, a sharp drop in crude oil prices, high domestic coal to gas production, off-season demand for polyester, and concentrated withdrawal of funds, forming a negative feedback of “cost collapse supply increase demand weakness”.
1、 Cost end: Middle East easing&crude oil plummeting&geographical premium “squeezing foam”
The main reason for the rise in ethylene glycol in April was the US Iran conflict, the disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, market hoarding, and the push up of the “geopolitical risk premium”. In May, things took a turning point as negotiations between the US and Iran resumed, expectations for reconciliation increased, expectations for cross-strait navigation resumed, and conflict premiums quickly dissipated. On the cost side, oil prices plummeted, with Brent falling from $115/barrel (early May) to $99-105/barrel (mid to late May), and the cost of producing ethylene glycol from oil collapsing.
2、 Supply side: High domestic production and revised import expectations, pressure exceeds expectations
The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol in China in May was between 58% and 68%; Among them, 68% – 82% (high level) is made of coal and 54% is made of oil. On the import side, the Middle East equipment is undergoing maintenance, and the expected arrival in May and June has declined. However, there is still a surplus of short-term arrivals, and the “import reduction” has been priced in advance, without forming an immediate gap.
3、 Demand side: Polyester off-season+terminal weakness, negative feedback, continuous fermentation
The average production of polyester in May was 75% -77%, a year-on-year decrease of 3-5 points, and the reduction in production of long and short fibers increased. From the perspective of terminal demand, textile and clothing exports are weak, while domestic demand is weak; The sluggish real estate market has dragged down the demand for building materials/home appliances, indirectly suppressing the demand for polyester. The raw material inventory of the polyester factory is only 7.5 days (the lowest in the past three years), maintaining only basic needs and weak willingness to actively replenish inventory. Terminal weakness → high polyester inventory → negative load reduction → reduced ethylene glycol procurement → price drop → further suppression of inventory replenishment, negative feedback continues to ferment.

4、 Funds and Emotions: Strong US Dollar, Expectations Turn Short, Funds Concentrate and Leave the Market
The settlement news in May triggered a concentrated stop loss, causing futures to continuously increase volume and plummet, driving spot prices to follow suit.
June 2026 ethylene glycol price forecast:
The operating trend of ethylene glycol prices in June is likely to be “weak at first and then stable, with a narrow range of fluctuations”, and it is difficult to see a significant drop or rise. The central spot price at the port is about 4400 yuan/ton.

The price of caustic soda is weak this month. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 628 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was 620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.27% and a year-on-year decrease of 29.94%. On May 28th, the Business Society Chlor Alkali Index was 748 points, an increase of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 64.85% from the highest point of 2128 points during the cycle (2021-10-24), and an increase of 5.80% from the lowest point of 707 points on February 27th, 2026. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been running weakly this month. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 560-650 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Zhejiang region is stable, and the price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali delivered to Xiaoshan mainstream market is around 850-900 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 2000-2050 yuan/ton (converted to 100%). In May, the caustic soda enterprise underwent maintenance, but due to the large inventory of caustic soda, it was not obvious for the enterprise to clear the inventory. In terms of downstream demand, the terminal orders of industries such as printing and dyeing, chemical fiber, and water treatment are poor, and market demand continues to be weak. Downstream enterprises tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude and a low price wait-and-see attitude, resulting in insufficient demand and only maintaining rigid procurement, leading to low transaction activity. Enterprise shipments are generally average.
Business analysts believe that recently, the price of caustic soda has been weak and the domestic downstream market has been purchasing on demand, and there has been no substantial improvement in demand. Caustic soda enterprises still face significant inventory pressure and downstream resistance. In June, the industry maintenance is still intensive, but the early shutdown enterprises have started construction, and there is no particularly favorable supply situation. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and the comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda may continue to maintain a weak operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

n May 2026, the domestic sulfuric acid market continued to rise, with prices continuing to rise and overall operating at a high level for the year. As of the end of May, the mainstream transaction price of 98% concentrated sulfuric acid in China was concentrated between 1800-2100 yuan/ton, and the average price continued to rise during the month, reaching a new high in the same period in nearly three years. Although downstream phosphate fertilizer has entered the traditional off-season of demand, the overall market is prone to rise but difficult to fall, with a clear pattern of unilateral upward movement supported by the double benefits of skyrocketing raw material costs and tightening on-site supply.
Firstly, the soaring prices of raw materials have provided strong cost support
Sulfur is the main raw material for sulfuric acid production, and the spot price of sulfur at ports has continued to soar this month, stabilizing above 7000 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with high pressure on raw material costs. Synchronized with the upward trend is the price of pyrite raw materials. Mainstream sulfur based sulfuric acid production enterprises continue to suffer losses, and acid plants have a strong willingness to raise prices, with no room for price reduction, supporting the continuous rise of acid prices from the source.
Secondly, centralized maintenance of equipment and tightening of market supply
In May and June, large-scale acid production facilities in many regions of China underwent centralized maintenance, resulting in a significant reduction in the supply of goods in the main production areas of East China, Central China, and Northwest China. Although sulfuric acid exports have been suspended since May and some of the exported goods have returned to China, the increase in return is far less than the shortage of goods caused by maintenance. The industry as a whole maintains a tight supply balance, coupled with a low overall operating rate, further boosting the market.
Finally, the demand for new energy has weakened the bearish sentiment of the season
After the end of spring plowing, the demand for phosphate fertilizer fell sharply, and the downstream of traditional fertilizers dragged down the market trend. However, the demand for lithium iron phosphate in the new energy sector remains high, while downstream fine chemicals such as titanium dioxide and fluorine chemicals maintain stable replenishment, effectively offsetting the negative impact of declining fertilizer demand during the off-season and supporting the stability of sulfuric acid demand fundamentals.
Situation in major mainstream regions in China:
East China, Central China, and Northeast China: With concentrated equipment maintenance, scarce supply of goods, and cost support, regional prices continue to rise, and the market is the strongest.
Southwest and Northwest regions: Low demand for phosphate fertilizers, slight accumulation of inventory by manufacturers, and slight price reductions and destocking by local acid companies, resulting in weak prices.
South China: Market polarization, Guangxi’s prices are weak due to the impact of low-priced goods from other provinces, and Guangdong’s maintenance support maintains high prices.
In the short term, the sulfuric acid market remained high and firm in June, with a regional differentiation pattern. The tight situation of raw material sulfur is difficult to alleviate quickly, and coupled with the fact that the maintenance units next month have not yet resumed production, the supply gap continues to exist; The downstream is still dominated by the off-season for phosphate fertilizers and the basic demand for new energy. Overall, there is still room for short-term acid prices to rise, and only weak demand areas such as the southwest are unlikely to see a significant increase in prices. In the medium to long term, attention should be paid to the arrival volume of imported sulfur at ports and the progress of domestic plant resumption, as these two variables will determine the turning point of the market.
The sulfuric acid market strengthened against the trend in May, driven by high raw material costs, tightening supply sources, and weak demand in downstream demand for new energy. At present, cost remains the core factor driving the market trend, and it is difficult to reverse the high-level operation of the sulfuric acid market in the short term.

Domestic coconut shell activated carbon manufacturers have maintained stable prices this week. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-13000 yuan/ton, while the price of columnar coal based activated carbon with an iodine value of around 1000 is between 8200-9500 yuan/ton. Coconut shell supply in Southeast Asia is normal, and the impact of new maritime regulations (dangerous goods declaration) has weakened. The high price of imported carbonized materials has fallen, easing cost pressure.
The price of imported coconut shell carbonization materials is temporarily stable, but the increase in rainfall in the Philippines and Indonesia may affect the material collection and cost issues. Domestic charcoal factories have a large inventory and need some time to digest it. Recently, the purchasing willingness has been low, and the decline in the coal based activated carbon market has decreased, but the rise has not covered the entire market. It has remained stable in the near future.
Prediction: There is a large inventory of coconut shell activated carbon in China, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

On the raw material side, the price of glycerol remains stable at a high level, while the cost side of epichlorohydrin provides strong support. Recently, the domestic propylene market has been driven by refinery maintenance and the urgent demand for chemical products, resulting in stable prices with slight increases. The supply of goods is tight, and companies have weak willingness to proactively lower prices and ship, which has formed rigid support for market prices. The price of glycerol remains volatile at a high level. Overall, the positive side of the raw material market outweighs the negative side, and the cost support is stable. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of May 15th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 9264.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.42% compared to the beginning of this month (9494.33 yuan/ton).
Supply side: Several mainstream enterprises in major production areas such as Shandong, Jiangsu, and Hebei have entered the annual maintenance and repair stage, involving large production capacity scales. The maintenance cycle is concentrated in mid to late May, and the short-term market output has significantly declined; Some small and medium-sized glycerol production facilities have been continuously shut down due to losses, further reducing the market’s effective production capacity.
On the demand side: In May, downstream demand showed stable demand, limited incremental growth, and structural improvement, providing moderate support for upstream raw materials without explosive growth. The construction coatings, flooring, and adhesive industries have entered the traditional peak season, with steady release of essential procurement; However, the pace of recovery in the real estate industry is slow, and terminal consumption is lower than expected. Downstream resin companies mainly rely on on-demand procurement and stocking, with weak willingness to hoard and limited bulk purchases, resulting in insufficient demand growth. Overall, the demand side is stable but not strong, with no obvious negative factors, and it is difficult to drive prices to soar significantly, resulting in a weak balance between supply and demand.
Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that in the short term, the high cost side price of epichlorohydrin will provide stable support, and downstream demand will steadily follow. However, in the long run, the raw material propylene may experience a slight decline in price and weakened cost support due to the concentrated resumption of production in refining units; In addition, with the concentrated resumption of maintenance equipment in May, new production capacity is gradually being released, industry operating rates are recovering, supply of goods is increasing, and supply pressure is gradually becoming apparent; It is expected that the market price of epichlorohydrin will fall at a high level in the later stage, and the mainstream price will fall back to the range of 12200-13000 yuan/ton. The overall trend is mainly characterized by wide fluctuations, and the probability of a significant decline is relatively small. More attention still needs to be paid to changes in raw material prices and market supply and demand.

From the supply side, the supply remained reasonably balanced this week. Previously, some units underwent maintenance, and production in Shandong, Henan, Northwest and other places slightly decreased. This week, enterprise units are still gradually recovering, and ammonia production has increased. The market is slowly increasing, and there is a slight increase in market supply. From the beginning of the week to the weekend, most companies did not adjust their prices, and some companies in Shandong lowered their prices by less than 100 yuan. The market showed a basic balance between supply and demand.
From the demand side, downstream demand has shown lukewarm performance, with the operating rate of compound fertilizers still at a low level, especially in northern regions where spring plowing is coming to an end and downstream procurement is cooling down. Affected by weak demand and insufficient sustained demand in the later stage, according to the commodity analysis system, the weekly decline in urea was 0.27%. In addition, the domestic industrial demand is weak, and agricultural demand is mainly purchased on demand with sporadic restocking. The improvement in demand is not significant, and the market’s wait-and-see mentality still dominates.
Market forecast:
Business analysts believe that liquid ammonia may remain stagnant in the short term, with little change in equipment and a relatively abundant supply pattern. In addition, there are not many favorable factors on the demand side, limited replenishment of agricultural demand, on-demand procurement in the market, and industrial rigid demand as the main focus. There are currently no bright spots in the market, and the ammonia market may maintain an adjustment pattern.

Entering April, the situation in the Middle East has been fluctuating, and the market’s attitude towards the production and transportation of crude oil in the Middle East under the influence of geopolitical factors has shown differentiation and easing. The signals of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran continue, and the international oil price premium is rapidly shifting towards negotiations to ease expectations and resonate with negative fundamentals. Intermittent resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, IEA downgrades supply and demand expectations, while API inventories surge. The combination of multiple factors causes fluctuations in the trend of crude oil and looseness in the remote cost value of PP. In terms of propylene, the centralized maintenance of enterprise equipment was implemented within the month, and the demand side received stable goods. After the spot price rose to a high level, it entered the consolidation market. Although the arrival of propane at ports remains low, overseas prices have been revised downwards at high levels in the middle of the month, while domestic spot prices remain strong. Overall, the prices of various PP raw materials have fluctuated, which has loosened the support for PP costs.
Supply side:
During the April period, domestic PP enterprises concentrated their maintenance plans, and the overall operating rate rapidly declined to a historical low. As of the time of writing, the overall load of the domestic industry is over 60%. The current inventory position is over 760000 tons, and the imported goods are at a low level on the port side. Overall, the supply side has strong support for spot prices.
In terms of demand:
Affected by the rising market in March, PP prices were already at a high level in early April, and the overall trading atmosphere in the downstream market of the industry turned cautious. In the first ten days, oversold contracts and chasing orders from refineries were basically delivered, but the pace of subsequent transactions slowed down and warehouse building operations decreased. Buyers often use and take as you go, with scattered small orders being the main focus. Some terminal small and micro enterprises that have reduced production and stopped production due to high cost pressures have limited resumption of work, while large and medium-sized enterprises continue to stabilize and acquire goods. The demand side is generally in a wait-and-see situation, and its performance falls short of market expectations. Although some pre holiday stocking and consumption have entered the market, the volume is limited and the support for PP is average.
Future forecast
The domestic PP market price remained high and consolidated throughout April. Fundamentally speaking, during the peak maintenance season in April, the industry’s load position bottomed out, and port imports remained low. However, with a large production capacity base, the supply of goods can still meet the demand. Business Society PP analysts believe that the current PP market is torn between long and short positions, with ambiguous guidance and insufficient market action in the future, and may maintain a consolidation trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of pure benzene in the Shandong region has risen this week. On Monday, the price of pure benzene was 8436.67 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 8626.67 yuan/ton, with a 2.25% increase in price during the week.
2、 Market analysis
Pure benzene: The market price of pure benzene in Shandong has risen this week. Yesterday, international crude oil futures closed higher, and the confidence in the pure benzene market is still good. Today, Shandong’s local refineries saw a slight increase in prices, while pure benzene in East China remained weak and stable. We need to be cautious about macro market fluctuations and pay more attention to the development of the situation in the Middle East.
Downstream aspects
3、 Future forecast
Crude oil futures: On April 16th, international crude oil futures closed higher. The settlement price of the May WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $94.69 per barrel, an increase of $3.40 or 3.7%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures in June was $99.39 per barrel, an increase of $4.46 or 4.7%.
Foreign pure benzene: On April 16th, FOB Korea fell 17 to 1142 US dollars/ton, and CFR China fell 15 to 1133 US dollars/ton. FOB Rotterdam remained stable at $1189 per ton, while FOB USG dropped by 4 to 475 cents per gallon.
Overall expectation: The short-term pure benzene market is expected to be strong and volatile, with cautious trading. Observe the cost and demand side news. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in pure benzene and downstream equipment dynamics and demand on the price of pure benzene.